TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Šotić, Aleksandar
AU  - Charbonnier, Nicolas
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2673
AB  - Dam and reservoir systems (DRSs) are crucial aspects of the infrastructure necessary for reliable water resource management. Nowadays, DRSs are being increasingly affected by numerous natural and anthropogenic impacts (aging and outdated infrastructure, climate change, natural hazards, global crises, etc.). Hence, additional pressure on DRS management is being applied as DRSs must be operated in adverse operating conditions, outside of their design envelopes. Since there is no practical way to redesign DRSs to meet all possible adverse conditions, efficient simulation tools are necessary for various “what-if” analyses. A system dynamics (SD) approach can be used, as it has shown the capacity to comprehend the intrinsic system complexity. In this paper, an 11-step framework for the dynamic modelling of reduced functionality in a DRS and the emulation of the system operation in adverse conditions is proposed. The framework covers the system model design, input scenario generation, system simulation, and performance evaluation steps. A focus is placed on the steps related to system decomposition, the identification of failure-indicative parameters, the definition and implementation of failure functions in the subsystem dynamic models, and dynamic failure modelling. Through these steps, a novel procedure is proposed for the dynamic modelling of the DRS subsystems’ failures (reduced functionality), common in the operation of DRSs under adverse conditions. For each subsystem prone to failure, failure-indicative parameters are identified. Failure functions employing generic functionality indicators, with values spanning from 0 to 1, are suggested to modify the values of the failure-indicative parameters in simulations and emulate the component failure impacts on DRS operation. Possibilities for modelling failure modes for different subsystems, varying in nature, duration, and magnitude are discussed. Potential physical damage to the system components, increases in measurement uncertainty, and the lack of the spare parts during periods of global crisis are applied as disturbances to the Pirot DRS case study to illustrate the possibilities of the suggested framework’s application for DRS failure modelling. It was concluded that the proposed framework allowed for the detection of severe impacts on system performance, emphasizing the need for DRS dynamic failure modelling in system analysis.
PB  - MDPI
T2  - Water MDPI
T1  - Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions
VL  - 14(10)
DO  - 10.3390/w14101549
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Ivetić, Damjan and Milašinović, Miloš and Stojković, Milan and Šotić, Aleksandar and Charbonnier, Nicolas and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2022",
abstract = "Dam and reservoir systems (DRSs) are crucial aspects of the infrastructure necessary for reliable water resource management. Nowadays, DRSs are being increasingly affected by numerous natural and anthropogenic impacts (aging and outdated infrastructure, climate change, natural hazards, global crises, etc.). Hence, additional pressure on DRS management is being applied as DRSs must be operated in adverse operating conditions, outside of their design envelopes. Since there is no practical way to redesign DRSs to meet all possible adverse conditions, efficient simulation tools are necessary for various “what-if” analyses. A system dynamics (SD) approach can be used, as it has shown the capacity to comprehend the intrinsic system complexity. In this paper, an 11-step framework for the dynamic modelling of reduced functionality in a DRS and the emulation of the system operation in adverse conditions is proposed. The framework covers the system model design, input scenario generation, system simulation, and performance evaluation steps. A focus is placed on the steps related to system decomposition, the identification of failure-indicative parameters, the definition and implementation of failure functions in the subsystem dynamic models, and dynamic failure modelling. Through these steps, a novel procedure is proposed for the dynamic modelling of the DRS subsystems’ failures (reduced functionality), common in the operation of DRSs under adverse conditions. For each subsystem prone to failure, failure-indicative parameters are identified. Failure functions employing generic functionality indicators, with values spanning from 0 to 1, are suggested to modify the values of the failure-indicative parameters in simulations and emulate the component failure impacts on DRS operation. Possibilities for modelling failure modes for different subsystems, varying in nature, duration, and magnitude are discussed. Potential physical damage to the system components, increases in measurement uncertainty, and the lack of the spare parts during periods of global crisis are applied as disturbances to the Pirot DRS case study to illustrate the possibilities of the suggested framework’s application for DRS failure modelling. It was concluded that the proposed framework allowed for the detection of severe impacts on system performance, emphasizing the need for DRS dynamic failure modelling in system analysis.",
publisher = "MDPI",
journal = "Water MDPI",
title = "Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions",
volume = "14(10)",
doi = "10.3390/w14101549"
}

Ivetić, D., Milašinović, M., Stojković, M., Šotić, A., Charbonnier, N.,& Milivojević, N.. (2022). Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions. in Water MDPI
MDPI., 14(10).
https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101549

Ivetić D, Milašinović M, Stojković M, Šotić A, Charbonnier N, Milivojević N. Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions. in Water MDPI. 2022;14(10).
doi:10.3390/w14101549 .

Ivetić, Damjan, Milašinović, Miloš, Stojković, Milan, Šotić, Aleksandar, Charbonnier, Nicolas, Milivojević, Nikola, "Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions" in Water MDPI, 14(10) (2022),
https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101549 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ignjatović, Lazar
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2021
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2671
AB  - The objective of this research is to introduce a novel framework to quantify the risk of the reservoir system outside the design envelope, taking into account the risks related to flood-protection and hydro-energy generation under unfavourable reservoir element conditions (system element failures) and hazardous situations within the environment (flood event). To analyze water system behavior in adverse conditions, a system analysis approach is used, which is founded upon the system dynamics model with a causal loop. The capability of the system in performing the intended functionality can be quantified using the traditional static measures like reliability, resilience and vulnerability, or dynamic resilience. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment of a multi-parameter dynamic resilience is introduced. The multi-parameter dynamic resilience envelops the hydropower and flood-protection resilience, as two opposing demands in the reservoir operation regime. A case study of a Pirot reservoir, in the Republic of Serbia, is used. To estimate the multi -parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system, a hydrological model, and a system dynamic simulation model with an inner control loop, is developed. The inner control loop provides the relation between the hydropower generation and flood-protection. The hydrological model is calibrated and generated climate inputs are used to simulate the long-term flow sequences. The most severe flood event period is extracted to be used as the input for the system dynamics simulations. The system performance for five different scenarios with various multi failure events (e.g., generator failure, segment gate failure on the spillway, leakage from reservoir and water supply tunnel failure due to earthquake) are presented using the novel concept of the explicit modeling of the component failures through element functionality indicators. Based on the outputs from the system dynamics model, system performance is determined and, later, hydropower and flood protection resilience. Then, multi-parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system is estimated and compared with the traditional static measures (reliability). Discrepancy between the drop between multi-parameter resilience (from 0.851 to 0.935) and reliability (from 0.993 to 1) shows that static measure underestimates the risk to the water system. Thus, the results from this research show that multi-parameter dynamic resilience, as an indicator, can provide additional insight compared to the traditional static measures, leading to identification of the vulnerable elements of a complex reservoir system. Additionally, it is shown that the proposed explicit modeling of system components failure can be used to reflect the drop of the overall system functionality.
PB  - MDPI
T2  - Water MDPI
T1  - Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System
VL  - 13(22)
DO  - 10.3390/w13223157
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Ignjatović, Lazar and Stojković, Milan and Ivetić, Damjan and Milašinović, Miloš and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2021",
abstract = "The objective of this research is to introduce a novel framework to quantify the risk of the reservoir system outside the design envelope, taking into account the risks related to flood-protection and hydro-energy generation under unfavourable reservoir element conditions (system element failures) and hazardous situations within the environment (flood event). To analyze water system behavior in adverse conditions, a system analysis approach is used, which is founded upon the system dynamics model with a causal loop. The capability of the system in performing the intended functionality can be quantified using the traditional static measures like reliability, resilience and vulnerability, or dynamic resilience. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment of a multi-parameter dynamic resilience is introduced. The multi-parameter dynamic resilience envelops the hydropower and flood-protection resilience, as two opposing demands in the reservoir operation regime. A case study of a Pirot reservoir, in the Republic of Serbia, is used. To estimate the multi -parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system, a hydrological model, and a system dynamic simulation model with an inner control loop, is developed. The inner control loop provides the relation between the hydropower generation and flood-protection. The hydrological model is calibrated and generated climate inputs are used to simulate the long-term flow sequences. The most severe flood event period is extracted to be used as the input for the system dynamics simulations. The system performance for five different scenarios with various multi failure events (e.g., generator failure, segment gate failure on the spillway, leakage from reservoir and water supply tunnel failure due to earthquake) are presented using the novel concept of the explicit modeling of the component failures through element functionality indicators. Based on the outputs from the system dynamics model, system performance is determined and, later, hydropower and flood protection resilience. Then, multi-parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system is estimated and compared with the traditional static measures (reliability). Discrepancy between the drop between multi-parameter resilience (from 0.851 to 0.935) and reliability (from 0.993 to 1) shows that static measure underestimates the risk to the water system. Thus, the results from this research show that multi-parameter dynamic resilience, as an indicator, can provide additional insight compared to the traditional static measures, leading to identification of the vulnerable elements of a complex reservoir system. Additionally, it is shown that the proposed explicit modeling of system components failure can be used to reflect the drop of the overall system functionality.",
publisher = "MDPI",
journal = "Water MDPI",
title = "Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System",
volume = "13(22)",
doi = "10.3390/w13223157"
}

Ignjatović, L., Stojković, M., Ivetić, D., Milašinović, M.,& Milivojević, N.. (2021). Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System. in Water MDPI
MDPI., 13(22).
https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223157

Ignjatović L, Stojković M, Ivetić D, Milašinović M, Milivojević N. Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System. in Water MDPI. 2021;13(22).
doi:10.3390/w13223157 .

Ignjatović, Lazar, Stojković, Milan, Ivetić, Damjan, Milašinović, Miloš, Milivojević, Nikola, "Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System" in Water MDPI, 13(22) (2021),
https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223157 . .