Razvoj modela za planiranje pouzdanosti složenih vodoprivrednih sistema
Reliability as tool for planning complex water resources systems
Докторска теза (Објављена верзија)
Метаподаци
Приказ свих података о документуАпстракт
Failure of water resources systems, particularly water
supply systems, may cause serious consequences in
economical and social environment. So these systems
have to fulfill high requirements of their functional
safety. Although very important, that aspect of safety is
not treated adequately in the phases of planning water
distribution systems. That is why the aspects of overall
water resources systems reliability evaluation, as well
as the problems of allocation and reliability optimal
system configuration, are considered.
New methodology for water resources systems
reliability evaluation is presented. Proposed
methodology considers both: mechanical reliability
(probability of pipe failure) and reliability of hydraulic
parameters in nodes and links (pressure, velocity). On the base of this methodology NETREL and 2PFREL
models were developed. These models are useful for
determing reliability of systems with different
configurations and complexity. Also, they make
possi...ble restriction of various hydraulic parameters and
their values. Models were analyzed and verified on
different water supply systems: regional and
distribution, and gravity and pumping systems.
Another important task, considered in the thesis, was
problem of optimal reliability allocation. Different
methods were analyzed, but particular point was
focused on genetic algorithms. That method, coupled
with the reliability evaluation methods, is an efficient
tool for problems of water resources systems optimal
reliability allocation. This methodology provides
performing optimization in real time and results that are
usually the global optimum of the considered problem.
Mechanical characteristics of pipes, failure and repair
rates, are very important for system's overall reliability.
These rates were considered and critically analyzed.
Methods for planning operative monitoring-information
system are proposed. Such a system allows better
monitoring and management, reduction of repair time,
which leads to higher values of system's overall
reliability. Pipes failure and repair rates for Belgrade
water supply system were analyzed and used as the
base for evaluation of presented models.