Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010
Само за регистроване кориснике
2015
Чланак у часопису (Објављена верзија)
Метаподаци
Приказ свих података о документуАпстракт
The spatial analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010 was carried out using mean monthly data from 64 meteorological stations. Change year detection was achieved using cumulative sum charts. The magnitude of trends was derived from the slopes of linear trends using the least square method. The same formalism of least square method was used to assess the statistical significance of the determined trends. Maps of temperature trends were generated by applying a spatial regression method to visualize the detected tendencies. The obtained results indicate a negative temperature trend for the period before the change year except for winter and a more pronounced positive trend after the change year. Besides being more pronounced, the vast majority of trends after the change year were also clearly statistically significant. Our estimate of the average temperature trend over Serbia is in agreement with those obtained at the global and European scal...e. Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate an apparent random spatial pattern of temperature trends across the Serbia for both periods before and after the change year.
Извор:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2015, 121, 1-2, 289-301Издавач:
- Springer-Verlag Wien
Финансирање / пројекти:
- Истраживање климатских промена и њиховог утицаја на животну средину - праћење утицаја, адаптација и ублажавање (RS-MESTD-Integrated and Interdisciplinary Research (IIR or III)-43007)
- Улога и имплементација државног просторног плана и регионалних развојних докумената у обнови стратешког истраживања, мишљења и управљања у Србији (RS-MESTD-Integrated and Interdisciplinary Research (IIR or III)-47014)
- Просторни, еколошки, енергетски и друштвени аспекти развоја насеља и климатске промене - међусобни утицаји (RS-MESTD-Technological Development (TD or TR)-36035)
- Унапређење геодетске инфраструктуре Србије за потребе савременог Државног премера (RS-MESTD-Technological Development (TD or TR)-36020)
- Метеоролошки екстреми и климатске промене у Србији (RS-MESTD-Basic Research (BR or ON)-176013)
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7
ISSN: 0177-798X
WoS: 000356539300025
Scopus: 2-s2.0-84931568166
Институција/група
GraFarTY - JOUR AU - Bajat, Branislav AU - Blagojević, Dragan AU - Kilibarda, Milan AU - Luković, Jelena AU - Tosić, Ivana PY - 2015 UR - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/721 AB - The spatial analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010 was carried out using mean monthly data from 64 meteorological stations. Change year detection was achieved using cumulative sum charts. The magnitude of trends was derived from the slopes of linear trends using the least square method. The same formalism of least square method was used to assess the statistical significance of the determined trends. Maps of temperature trends were generated by applying a spatial regression method to visualize the detected tendencies. The obtained results indicate a negative temperature trend for the period before the change year except for winter and a more pronounced positive trend after the change year. Besides being more pronounced, the vast majority of trends after the change year were also clearly statistically significant. Our estimate of the average temperature trend over Serbia is in agreement with those obtained at the global and European scale. Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate an apparent random spatial pattern of temperature trends across the Serbia for both periods before and after the change year. PB - Springer-Verlag Wien T2 - Theoretical and Applied Climatology T1 - Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010 EP - 301 IS - 1-2 SP - 289 VL - 121 DO - 10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7 ER -
@article{ author = "Bajat, Branislav and Blagojević, Dragan and Kilibarda, Milan and Luković, Jelena and Tosić, Ivana", year = "2015", abstract = "The spatial analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010 was carried out using mean monthly data from 64 meteorological stations. Change year detection was achieved using cumulative sum charts. The magnitude of trends was derived from the slopes of linear trends using the least square method. The same formalism of least square method was used to assess the statistical significance of the determined trends. Maps of temperature trends were generated by applying a spatial regression method to visualize the detected tendencies. The obtained results indicate a negative temperature trend for the period before the change year except for winter and a more pronounced positive trend after the change year. Besides being more pronounced, the vast majority of trends after the change year were also clearly statistically significant. Our estimate of the average temperature trend over Serbia is in agreement with those obtained at the global and European scale. Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate an apparent random spatial pattern of temperature trends across the Serbia for both periods before and after the change year.", publisher = "Springer-Verlag Wien", journal = "Theoretical and Applied Climatology", title = "Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010", pages = "301-289", number = "1-2", volume = "121", doi = "10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7" }
Bajat, B., Blagojević, D., Kilibarda, M., Luković, J.,& Tosić, I.. (2015). Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010. in Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer-Verlag Wien., 121(1-2), 289-301. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7
Bajat B, Blagojević D, Kilibarda M, Luković J, Tosić I. Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010. in Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2015;121(1-2):289-301. doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7 .
Bajat, Branislav, Blagojević, Dragan, Kilibarda, Milan, Luković, Jelena, Tosić, Ivana, "Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010" in Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 121, no. 1-2 (2015):289-301, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7 . .