Failure Conditions Assessment of Complex Water Systems Using Fuzzy Logic
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2023
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Climate change, energy transition, population growth and other natural and anthropogenic impacts, combined with outdated (unfashionable) infrastructure, can force Dam and Reservoir Systems (DRS) operation outside of the design envelope (adverse operating conditions). Since there is no easy way to redesign or upgrade the existing DRSs to mitigate against all the potential failure situations, Digital Twins (DT) of DRSs are required to assess system’s performance under various what-if scenarios. The current state of practice in failure modelling is that failures (system’s not performing at the expected level or not at all) are randomly created and implemented in simulation models. That approach helps in identifying the riskiest parts (subsystems) of the DRS (risk-based approach), but does not consider hazards leading to failures, their occurrence probabilities or subsystem failure exposure. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper presents a more realistic failure scenario generator based ...on a causal approach. Here, the novel failure simulation approach utilizes fuzzy logic reasoning to create DRS failures based on hazard severity and subsystems’ reliability. Combined with the system dynamics (SD) model this general failure simulation tool is designed to be used with any DRS. The potential of the proposed method is demonstrated using the Pirot DRS case study in Serbia over a 10-year simulation period. Results show that even occasional hazards (as for more than 97% of the simulation there were no hazards), combined with outdated infrastructure can reduce DRS performance by 50%, which can help in identifying possible “hidden” failure risks and support system maintenance prioritization.
Ključne reči:
Water resources resilience / Digital twins / Failure modes / System dynamics modelIzvor:
Water Resources Management, 2023Izdavač:
- Springer Link
Finansiranje / projekti:
- DyRes: Dynamics resilience as a measure for risk assessment of the complex water, infrastructure and ecological systems: Making a context
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Institucija/grupa
GraFarTY - JOUR AU - Milašinović, Miloš AU - Ivetić, Damjan AU - Stojković, Milan AU - Savić, Dragan PY - 2023 UR - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3034 AB - Climate change, energy transition, population growth and other natural and anthropogenic impacts, combined with outdated (unfashionable) infrastructure, can force Dam and Reservoir Systems (DRS) operation outside of the design envelope (adverse operating conditions). Since there is no easy way to redesign or upgrade the existing DRSs to mitigate against all the potential failure situations, Digital Twins (DT) of DRSs are required to assess system’s performance under various what-if scenarios. The current state of practice in failure modelling is that failures (system’s not performing at the expected level or not at all) are randomly created and implemented in simulation models. That approach helps in identifying the riskiest parts (subsystems) of the DRS (risk-based approach), but does not consider hazards leading to failures, their occurrence probabilities or subsystem failure exposure. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper presents a more realistic failure scenario generator based on a causal approach. Here, the novel failure simulation approach utilizes fuzzy logic reasoning to create DRS failures based on hazard severity and subsystems’ reliability. Combined with the system dynamics (SD) model this general failure simulation tool is designed to be used with any DRS. The potential of the proposed method is demonstrated using the Pirot DRS case study in Serbia over a 10-year simulation period. Results show that even occasional hazards (as for more than 97% of the simulation there were no hazards), combined with outdated infrastructure can reduce DRS performance by 50%, which can help in identifying possible “hidden” failure risks and support system maintenance prioritization. PB - Springer Link T2 - Water Resources Management T1 - Failure Conditions Assessment of Complex Water Systems Using Fuzzy Logic DO - 10.1007/s11269-022-03420-w ER -
@article{ author = "Milašinović, Miloš and Ivetić, Damjan and Stojković, Milan and Savić, Dragan", year = "2023", abstract = "Climate change, energy transition, population growth and other natural and anthropogenic impacts, combined with outdated (unfashionable) infrastructure, can force Dam and Reservoir Systems (DRS) operation outside of the design envelope (adverse operating conditions). Since there is no easy way to redesign or upgrade the existing DRSs to mitigate against all the potential failure situations, Digital Twins (DT) of DRSs are required to assess system’s performance under various what-if scenarios. The current state of practice in failure modelling is that failures (system’s not performing at the expected level or not at all) are randomly created and implemented in simulation models. That approach helps in identifying the riskiest parts (subsystems) of the DRS (risk-based approach), but does not consider hazards leading to failures, their occurrence probabilities or subsystem failure exposure. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper presents a more realistic failure scenario generator based on a causal approach. Here, the novel failure simulation approach utilizes fuzzy logic reasoning to create DRS failures based on hazard severity and subsystems’ reliability. Combined with the system dynamics (SD) model this general failure simulation tool is designed to be used with any DRS. The potential of the proposed method is demonstrated using the Pirot DRS case study in Serbia over a 10-year simulation period. Results show that even occasional hazards (as for more than 97% of the simulation there were no hazards), combined with outdated infrastructure can reduce DRS performance by 50%, which can help in identifying possible “hidden” failure risks and support system maintenance prioritization.", publisher = "Springer Link", journal = "Water Resources Management", title = "Failure Conditions Assessment of Complex Water Systems Using Fuzzy Logic", doi = "10.1007/s11269-022-03420-w" }
Milašinović, M., Ivetić, D., Stojković, M.,& Savić, D.. (2023). Failure Conditions Assessment of Complex Water Systems Using Fuzzy Logic. in Water Resources Management Springer Link.. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03420-w
Milašinović M, Ivetić D, Stojković M, Savić D. Failure Conditions Assessment of Complex Water Systems Using Fuzzy Logic. in Water Resources Management. 2023;. doi:10.1007/s11269-022-03420-w .
Milašinović, Miloš, Ivetić, Damjan, Stojković, Milan, Savić, Dragan, "Failure Conditions Assessment of Complex Water Systems Using Fuzzy Logic" in Water Resources Management (2023), https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03420-w . .