Long-term change in hydroclimatic regimes in catchments across Serbia

Abstract

This study presents trend analyses in several catchments across Serbia. The trend analyses are preformed over series of precipitation, temperature and streamflows. These variables are represented by different indicators, such as the total annual precipitation, or maximum daily precipitation depth, temperature, and streamflow rate. The indicators are selected to represent different features of the catchment hydroclimatical regimes, such as mean or extreme conditions, or seasonality, and are all computed at the annual level. The Mann-Kendall test for trend is applied over these annual series of indicators, and the series that result in the test null hypothesis rejection at 5% are considered to exhibit a statistically significant trend. The results of the Mann-Kendall test are complemented by the Sens’ slope estimator values, which indicate a sign of a trend. The trend analyses are further extended to joint considerations of concurrent occurrence of trends in climatical and hydrological indicators in the same catchment by conducting a correlation analysis. The objective of these analyses is to examine if the trends in climatical variables inevitably translate to trends in streamflow-related indicators, i.e., hydrological signatures, which is important in context of climate change and effective water resources management.