Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010
Samo za registrovane korisnike
2015
Članak u časopisu (Objavljena verzija)
Metapodaci
Prikaz svih podataka o dokumentuApstrakt
The spatial analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010 was carried out using mean monthly data from 64 meteorological stations. Change year detection was achieved using cumulative sum charts. The magnitude of trends was derived from the slopes of linear trends using the least square method. The same formalism of least square method was used to assess the statistical significance of the determined trends. Maps of temperature trends were generated by applying a spatial regression method to visualize the detected tendencies. The obtained results indicate a negative temperature trend for the period before the change year except for winter and a more pronounced positive trend after the change year. Besides being more pronounced, the vast majority of trends after the change year were also clearly statistically significant. Our estimate of the average temperature trend over Serbia is in agreement with those obtained at the global and European scal...e. Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate an apparent random spatial pattern of temperature trends across the Serbia for both periods before and after the change year.
Izvor:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2015, 121, 1-2, 289-301Izdavač:
- Springer-Verlag Wien
Finansiranje / projekti:
- Istraživanje klimatskih promena i njihovog uticaja na životnu sredinu - praćenje uticaja, adaptacija i ublažavanje (RS-43007)
- Uloga i implementacija državnog prostornog plana i regionalnih razvojnih dokumenata u obnovi strateškog istraživanja, mišljenja i upravljanja u Srbiji (RS-47014)
- Prostorni, ekološki, energetski i društveni aspekti razvoja naselja i klimatske promene - međusobni uticaji (RS-36035)
- Unapređenje geodetske infrastrukture Srbije za potrebe savremenog Državnog premera (RS-36020)
- Meteorološki ekstremi i klimatske promene u Srbiji (RS-176013)
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7
ISSN: 0177-798X