TY  - JOUR
AU  - Blagojević, Borislava
AU  - Mihailović, Vladislava
AU  - Bogojević, Aleksandar
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
PY  - 2023
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3150
AB  - Changes in the hydrological regime are widely investigated using a variety of approaches. In this study, we assess changes in annual and seasonal flow characteristics based on a probabilistic representation of the seasonal runoff regime at the daily time scale. The probabilistic seasonal runoff pattern is constructed by determining quantiles from marginal distributions of daily flows for each day within the year. By applying Fourier transformation on the statistics of the daily flow partial series, we obtain smooth periodical functions of distribution parameters over the year and consequently of the quantiles. The main findings are based on the comparison of the dry, average, and wet hydrologic condition zones as defined by the daily flow quantiles of selected probabilities. This analysis was conducted for ten catchments in Serbia by considering changes between two 30-year nonoverlapping periods, 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. It was found that the relative change in runoff volume is the most pronounced in the extreme dry condition zone in the winter season (−33% to 34%). The annual time shift is the largest in the dry and average condition zones, ranging from −11 to 12 days. The applied methodology is not only applicable to the detection of hydrologic change, but could also be used in operational hydrology and extreme flow studies via drought indices such as the Standardized Streamflow Index.
T2  - Water, MDPI
T1  - Detecting annual and seasonal hydrological change using marginal distributions of daily flows
SP  - 2919
VL  - 15
DO  - 10.3390/w15162919
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Blagojević, Borislava and Mihailović, Vladislava and Bogojević, Aleksandar and Plavšić, Jasna",
year = "2023",
abstract = "Changes in the hydrological regime are widely investigated using a variety of approaches. In this study, we assess changes in annual and seasonal flow characteristics based on a probabilistic representation of the seasonal runoff regime at the daily time scale. The probabilistic seasonal runoff pattern is constructed by determining quantiles from marginal distributions of daily flows for each day within the year. By applying Fourier transformation on the statistics of the daily flow partial series, we obtain smooth periodical functions of distribution parameters over the year and consequently of the quantiles. The main findings are based on the comparison of the dry, average, and wet hydrologic condition zones as defined by the daily flow quantiles of selected probabilities. This analysis was conducted for ten catchments in Serbia by considering changes between two 30-year nonoverlapping periods, 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. It was found that the relative change in runoff volume is the most pronounced in the extreme dry condition zone in the winter season (−33% to 34%). The annual time shift is the largest in the dry and average condition zones, ranging from −11 to 12 days. The applied methodology is not only applicable to the detection of hydrologic change, but could also be used in operational hydrology and extreme flow studies via drought indices such as the Standardized Streamflow Index.",
journal = "Water, MDPI",
title = "Detecting annual and seasonal hydrological change using marginal distributions of daily flows",
pages = "2919",
volume = "15",
doi = "10.3390/w15162919"
}

Blagojević, B., Mihailović, V., Bogojević, A.,& Plavšić, J.. (2023). Detecting annual and seasonal hydrological change using marginal distributions of daily flows. in Water, MDPI, 15, 2919.
https://doi.org/10.3390/w15162919

Blagojević B, Mihailović V, Bogojević A, Plavšić J. Detecting annual and seasonal hydrological change using marginal distributions of daily flows. in Water, MDPI. 2023;15:2919.
doi:10.3390/w15162919 .

Blagojević, Borislava, Mihailović, Vladislava, Bogojević, Aleksandar, Plavšić, Jasna, "Detecting annual and seasonal hydrological change using marginal distributions of daily flows" in Water, MDPI, 15 (2023):2919,
https://doi.org/10.3390/w15162919 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
AU  - Pavlović, Dragutin
AU  - Mihailović, Vladislava
AU  - Blagojević, Borislava
PY  - 2016
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/761
AB  - Flood flow frequency analysis is performed on the series of hydrological observations. The observations introduce uncertainties in the analysis results, inherited from limited data sets, operational difficulties in high flow measurements, flood flow estimates in the rating curve extrapolation zone, as well as different mechanisms of runoff generation. Difficulties in defining flood flow probabilistic model arise in the presence of outliers (significantly larger or smaller value compared to the remaining data set values). The paper provides an overview of methods for the detection of outliers from traditional practice to the latest research results, as well as procedures for outlier treatment in the further statistical analysis, focusing especially on the recommendations from the recently published Bulletin 17C in the USA. The assumptions about the population, procedures of outlier detection, the treatment of transformed data sets, and potential difficulties in the application are highlighted. Statistical tests and procedures are applied to flood data at 70 hydrological stations in Serbia. Analysis of flood flow frequency in the presence of outliers is performed by the methods of the annual maxima and peaks over threshold (POT). The examples include both upper and lower outliers. Comments are given on the differences in the results from the applied outlier detection and treatment procedures. Recommendations to the practitioners are given in the conclusions in order to reduce uncertainty in the flood flow frequency analysis in the presence of outliers.
AB  - Statistička analiza velikih voda se radi na nizovima hidroloških osmatranja, koja u rezultate ove analize unose neizvesnosti u pogledu ograničene dužine osmatranja, teškoća u merenju vrlo velikih protoka i njihove procene iz zone ekstrapolovanih krivih protoka, kao i zbog različitih mehanizama generisanja oticaja. Definisanje probabilističkog modela velikih voda je otežano i zbog postojanja izuzetaka u nizovima, tj. značajno velikih ili malih vrednosti u odnosu na većinu. U radu se daje pregled postupaka i statističkih testova za otkrivanje izuzetaka od standardnih do najnovijih, kao i načini postupanja sa izuzetnim vrednostima. Najveća pažnja posvećena je otkrivanju i tretmanu donjih izuzetaka, koji u velikoj meri utiču na raspodelu a time i na usvojene računske velike vode. Poseban osvrt je dat na najnovije preporuke iz američkog Biltena 17C. Komentarišu se pretpostavke o raspodeli populacije, procedure testiranja, postupanje sa transformisanim nizovima i ukazuje na moguće poteškoće u primeni. Sama primena testova i procedura prikazana je u praktičnom delu, gde se statistička analiza velikih voda u prisustvu izuzetaka sprovodi za karakteristične primere sa hidroloških stanica u Srbiji na nizovima formiranim metodama godišnjih maksimuma i prekoračenja preko praga. Primeri obuhvataju i gornje i donje izuzetke. Komentarišu se razlike u rezultatima prilikom primene različitih procedura u prisustvu izuzetaka i predlaže niz iskustvenih mera kako bi ocena velikih voda bila što pouzdanija.
PB  - Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd
T2  - Vodoprivreda
T1  - Flood flow frequency analysis in the presence of outliers
T1  - Statistička analiza velikih voda u prisustvu izuzetaka
EP  - 17
IS  - 1-3
SP  - 5
VL  - 48
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_761
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Plavšić, Jasna and Pavlović, Dragutin and Mihailović, Vladislava and Blagojević, Borislava",
year = "2016",
abstract = "Flood flow frequency analysis is performed on the series of hydrological observations. The observations introduce uncertainties in the analysis results, inherited from limited data sets, operational difficulties in high flow measurements, flood flow estimates in the rating curve extrapolation zone, as well as different mechanisms of runoff generation. Difficulties in defining flood flow probabilistic model arise in the presence of outliers (significantly larger or smaller value compared to the remaining data set values). The paper provides an overview of methods for the detection of outliers from traditional practice to the latest research results, as well as procedures for outlier treatment in the further statistical analysis, focusing especially on the recommendations from the recently published Bulletin 17C in the USA. The assumptions about the population, procedures of outlier detection, the treatment of transformed data sets, and potential difficulties in the application are highlighted. Statistical tests and procedures are applied to flood data at 70 hydrological stations in Serbia. Analysis of flood flow frequency in the presence of outliers is performed by the methods of the annual maxima and peaks over threshold (POT). The examples include both upper and lower outliers. Comments are given on the differences in the results from the applied outlier detection and treatment procedures. Recommendations to the practitioners are given in the conclusions in order to reduce uncertainty in the flood flow frequency analysis in the presence of outliers., Statistička analiza velikih voda se radi na nizovima hidroloških osmatranja, koja u rezultate ove analize unose neizvesnosti u pogledu ograničene dužine osmatranja, teškoća u merenju vrlo velikih protoka i njihove procene iz zone ekstrapolovanih krivih protoka, kao i zbog različitih mehanizama generisanja oticaja. Definisanje probabilističkog modela velikih voda je otežano i zbog postojanja izuzetaka u nizovima, tj. značajno velikih ili malih vrednosti u odnosu na većinu. U radu se daje pregled postupaka i statističkih testova za otkrivanje izuzetaka od standardnih do najnovijih, kao i načini postupanja sa izuzetnim vrednostima. Najveća pažnja posvećena je otkrivanju i tretmanu donjih izuzetaka, koji u velikoj meri utiču na raspodelu a time i na usvojene računske velike vode. Poseban osvrt je dat na najnovije preporuke iz američkog Biltena 17C. Komentarišu se pretpostavke o raspodeli populacije, procedure testiranja, postupanje sa transformisanim nizovima i ukazuje na moguće poteškoće u primeni. Sama primena testova i procedura prikazana je u praktičnom delu, gde se statistička analiza velikih voda u prisustvu izuzetaka sprovodi za karakteristične primere sa hidroloških stanica u Srbiji na nizovima formiranim metodama godišnjih maksimuma i prekoračenja preko praga. Primeri obuhvataju i gornje i donje izuzetke. Komentarišu se razlike u rezultatima prilikom primene različitih procedura u prisustvu izuzetaka i predlaže niz iskustvenih mera kako bi ocena velikih voda bila što pouzdanija.",
publisher = "Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd",
journal = "Vodoprivreda",
title = "Flood flow frequency analysis in the presence of outliers, Statistička analiza velikih voda u prisustvu izuzetaka",
pages = "17-5",
number = "1-3",
volume = "48",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_761"
}

Plavšić, J., Pavlović, D., Mihailović, V.,& Blagojević, B.. (2016). Flood flow frequency analysis in the presence of outliers. in Vodoprivreda
Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd., 48(1-3), 5-17.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_761

Plavšić J, Pavlović D, Mihailović V, Blagojević B. Flood flow frequency analysis in the presence of outliers. in Vodoprivreda. 2016;48(1-3):5-17.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_761 .

Plavšić, Jasna, Pavlović, Dragutin, Mihailović, Vladislava, Blagojević, Borislava, "Flood flow frequency analysis in the presence of outliers" in Vodoprivreda, 48, no. 1-3 (2016):5-17,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_761 .

TY  - CONF
AU  - Blagojević, Borislava
AU  - Mihailović, Vladislava
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
PY  - 2014
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1209
AB  - In the hydraulic structures design process, the reliable flood estimation is essential for designing the structure. Statistical analysis of observed flood flows, i.e. the flood frequency analysis is one way to obtain the design flood of a specified probability. The problems that can threaten the credibility of flood estimates are related, among other issues, to the treatment procedure of exceptional values (outliers) in the observed flood flow data sets. In this paper a detection of upper and lower outliers in a series of streamflow annual maxima is performed by the Grubbs and Beck statistical test on 68 hydrological stations in Serbia. The data observation period considered is from the establishment of the stations until 2012. The outlier detection results are compared to the previous results obtained for the data processing period until the year 2006.
PB  - Građevinski fakultet, Subotica
C3  - Međunarodna konferencija Savremena dostignuća u građevinarstvu 25
T1  - Outlier treatment in the flood flow statistical analysis
T1  - Postupanje sa izuzetnim vrednostima u statističkoj analizi velikih voda
EP  - 609
SP  - 603
VL  - 30
DO  - 10.14415/konferencijaGFS2014.081
ER  - 

@conference{
author = "Blagojević, Borislava and Mihailović, Vladislava and Plavšić, Jasna",
year = "2014",
abstract = "In the hydraulic structures design process, the reliable flood estimation is essential for designing the structure. Statistical analysis of observed flood flows, i.e. the flood frequency analysis is one way to obtain the design flood of a specified probability. The problems that can threaten the credibility of flood estimates are related, among other issues, to the treatment procedure of exceptional values (outliers) in the observed flood flow data sets. In this paper a detection of upper and lower outliers in a series of streamflow annual maxima is performed by the Grubbs and Beck statistical test on 68 hydrological stations in Serbia. The data observation period considered is from the establishment of the stations until 2012. The outlier detection results are compared to the previous results obtained for the data processing period until the year 2006.",
publisher = "Građevinski fakultet, Subotica",
journal = "Međunarodna konferencija Savremena dostignuća u građevinarstvu 25",
title = "Outlier treatment in the flood flow statistical analysis, Postupanje sa izuzetnim vrednostima u statističkoj analizi velikih voda",
pages = "609-603",
volume = "30",
doi = "10.14415/konferencijaGFS2014.081"
}

Blagojević, B., Mihailović, V.,& Plavšić, J.. (2014). Outlier treatment in the flood flow statistical analysis. in Međunarodna konferencija Savremena dostignuća u građevinarstvu 25
Građevinski fakultet, Subotica., 30, 603-609.
https://doi.org/10.14415/konferencijaGFS2014.081

Blagojević B, Mihailović V, Plavšić J. Outlier treatment in the flood flow statistical analysis. in Međunarodna konferencija Savremena dostignuća u građevinarstvu 25. 2014;30:603-609.
doi:10.14415/konferencijaGFS2014.081 .

Blagojević, Borislava, Mihailović, Vladislava, Plavšić, Jasna, "Outlier treatment in the flood flow statistical analysis" in Međunarodna konferencija Savremena dostignuća u građevinarstvu 25, 30 (2014):603-609,
https://doi.org/10.14415/konferencijaGFS2014.081 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Blagojević, Borislava
AU  - Mihailović, Vladislava
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
PY  - 2014
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/589
AB  - In most developed countries, practices and research results are translated into standards or guidelines for flood flow assessment, usually with the compulsory application in the design and exploitation of hydraulic structures and systems. This paper briefly presents the draft guidelines for flood flow statistical analysis in gauged basins based on methods of statistical hydrology, intended for practitioners in Serbia. It explains the motivation for composing national guidelines and gives insight into contemporary trends in flood flow assessment in a few selected countries. The content of the draft guidelines is shown, as well as the main conclusions of the expanded research in terms of the proposed methodology for detection and handling of exceptional values. The proposed recommendations for modernization of existing, common engineering practices are highlighted. The paper presents the guidelines at the end of the first from three planned research phases, with the primary aim to encourage public debate which, in pair with the professional review, would lead to the adoption of the guidelines.
AB  - U većini razvijenih zemalja, iskustva iz prakse i rezultati istraživanja, pretočeni su u standarde ili preporuke za proračun velikih voda, najčešće sa obaveznom primenom u projektovanju ili eksploataciji hidrotehničkih objekata i sistema. U ovom radu ukratko je prikazan nacrt preporuka za proračun velikih voda na izučenim slivovima metodama statističke hidrologije, koji je namenjen domaćoj stručnoj javnosti. Objašnjena je motivacija za izradu preporuka u Srbiji i dat je uvid u savremene tendencije u standardizaciji proračuna velikih voda u nekoliko odabranih zemalja. Prikazan je sadržaj nacrta preporuka, a priloženi su i glavni zaključci proširenog istraživanja u pogledu predložene metodologije za otkrivanje i postupanje sa izuzetnim vrednostima. Sumirane su predložene konkretne preporuke za osavremenjavanje postojeće, uobičajene inženjerske prakse. U radu se stručnoj javnosti predstavlja predlog teksta preporuka nastao posle prve od tri predviđene faze istraživanja, sa prevashodnim ciljem da podstakne javnu raspravu koja bi, uz stručnu recenziju, dovela do usvajanja preporuka.
PB  - Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd
T2  - Vodoprivreda
T1  - Flood frequency analysis at gauged sites: Need for a change in approach
T1  - Statistička analiza velikih voda na profilima hidroloških stanica - potreba za promenom pristupa
EP  - 209
IS  - 1-6
SP  - 199
VL  - 46
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_589
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Blagojević, Borislava and Mihailović, Vladislava and Plavšić, Jasna",
year = "2014",
abstract = "In most developed countries, practices and research results are translated into standards or guidelines for flood flow assessment, usually with the compulsory application in the design and exploitation of hydraulic structures and systems. This paper briefly presents the draft guidelines for flood flow statistical analysis in gauged basins based on methods of statistical hydrology, intended for practitioners in Serbia. It explains the motivation for composing national guidelines and gives insight into contemporary trends in flood flow assessment in a few selected countries. The content of the draft guidelines is shown, as well as the main conclusions of the expanded research in terms of the proposed methodology for detection and handling of exceptional values. The proposed recommendations for modernization of existing, common engineering practices are highlighted. The paper presents the guidelines at the end of the first from three planned research phases, with the primary aim to encourage public debate which, in pair with the professional review, would lead to the adoption of the guidelines., U većini razvijenih zemalja, iskustva iz prakse i rezultati istraživanja, pretočeni su u standarde ili preporuke za proračun velikih voda, najčešće sa obaveznom primenom u projektovanju ili eksploataciji hidrotehničkih objekata i sistema. U ovom radu ukratko je prikazan nacrt preporuka za proračun velikih voda na izučenim slivovima metodama statističke hidrologije, koji je namenjen domaćoj stručnoj javnosti. Objašnjena je motivacija za izradu preporuka u Srbiji i dat je uvid u savremene tendencije u standardizaciji proračuna velikih voda u nekoliko odabranih zemalja. Prikazan je sadržaj nacrta preporuka, a priloženi su i glavni zaključci proširenog istraživanja u pogledu predložene metodologije za otkrivanje i postupanje sa izuzetnim vrednostima. Sumirane su predložene konkretne preporuke za osavremenjavanje postojeće, uobičajene inženjerske prakse. U radu se stručnoj javnosti predstavlja predlog teksta preporuka nastao posle prve od tri predviđene faze istraživanja, sa prevashodnim ciljem da podstakne javnu raspravu koja bi, uz stručnu recenziju, dovela do usvajanja preporuka.",
publisher = "Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd",
journal = "Vodoprivreda",
title = "Flood frequency analysis at gauged sites: Need for a change in approach, Statistička analiza velikih voda na profilima hidroloških stanica - potreba za promenom pristupa",
pages = "209-199",
number = "1-6",
volume = "46",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_589"
}

Blagojević, B., Mihailović, V.,& Plavšić, J.. (2014). Flood frequency analysis at gauged sites: Need for a change in approach. in Vodoprivreda
Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd., 46(1-6), 199-209.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_589

Blagojević B, Mihailović V, Plavšić J. Flood frequency analysis at gauged sites: Need for a change in approach. in Vodoprivreda. 2014;46(1-6):199-209.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_589 .

Blagojević, Borislava, Mihailović, Vladislava, Plavšić, Jasna, "Flood frequency analysis at gauged sites: Need for a change in approach" in Vodoprivreda, 46, no. 1-6 (2014):199-209,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_589 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Mihailović, Vladislava
AU  - Radić, Zoran
PY  - 2010
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/330
AB  - This paper presents a part of results of the continuous efforts of the authors to promote, improve and popularize structural analyses of daily hydrological and meteorological series, first introduced by professor Vujica Yevjevich The main objectives of this paper are: (1) to present a new method which allows the same approach to both meteorological and hydrological series analyses; (2) to determine, in a systematical and objective way, which is the best fitting distribution to describe marginal distributions of cumulative daily rainfall on 25 climatological stations in Serbia for reference period 1961-1990. As precipitation series are discrete stochastic series (with a lot of zero daily values), for the droughts analyses is common to use cumulative rainfall values. In this study cumulative rainfall for past 30, 60 and 90 days (updated daily) are analyzed. The ability of various two and three-parameter probability distributions to describe marginal distributions of cumulative daily precipitation series, and preliminary selection of candidate distributions was performed using L-moment diagrams. Further analysis has shown that neither of three-parameter distributions are suitable for modeling marginal distributions of cumulative daily precipitation over given range of time scales. Among two-parameter models, rival candidate distributions were gamma (GAM2) and Weibull (W2) distributions. The results of performed goodness of fit tests, (the mean absolute deviation - MAD, the root mean square deviation - RMSD and probability plot correlation coefficient - PPCC), showed that the most suitable model is GAM2.
AB  - Hidrološke i meteorološke serije su najčešće mešoviti procesi sastavljeni od determinističkih i stohastičkih komponenti. Ako se pretpostavi da tokom referentnog perioda (N=30 godina) mogu zanemariti trendovi usled globalnih promena, i da su promene kontinualne (da nema skokovitih promena), onda od determinističkih komponenti ostaju samo sezonske promene vezane za padavinski režim razmatranog područja. Opšte je poznato da se sezonske varijacije uspešno mogu modelirati primenom periodičnih funkcija (korišćenjem Fourierovih serija). Fundamentalne pretpostavke u ovom radu su: A. da sezonske promene (koje evidentno postoje u srednjim vrednostima) postoje i u svim ostalim parametrima (te da mogu modelirati primenom periodičnih funkcija); B. da se na osnovu modeliranih (periodičnih) vremenskih funkcija parametara dnevnih suma padavina stohastičke varijacije dnevnih padavina mogu modelirati primenom jedinstvenog modela za svih 365 marginalnih raspodela. Kao rezultat uvedenih pretpostavki dobijaju se glatke funkcije kvantila tokom hidrološke godine koje omogućavaju širok opseg primena: za analize i klasifikaciju padavinskih režima; za ranu detekciju sušnih i vlažnih perioda; za definisanje promenljivog praga kod analize suša; za analizu globalnih klimatskih promena, itd. Glavni ciljevi ovog članka su : (1) Da se prikaže nov metodološki pristup koji omogućava isti pristup kod analize meteoroloških i hidroloških serija (2) Da se na sistematičan i objektivan način utvrdi koja je teorijska funkcija raspodele najprihvatljivija za marginalne raspodele dnevnih suma padavina na 25 klimatoloških stanica u Srbiji za referentni period 1961-1990. godine. Kako su dnevne padavine prekidne stohastičke serije (sa puno vrednosti nula) analize su urađene za kumulativne kiše tokom 30, 60 i 90 dana. Analiziran je veći broj mogućih dvoparametarskih i troparametarskih raspodela. Preliminarni izbor izvršen je na osnovu dijagrama L-momenata i srednjih težinskih odstojanja (statistika AWOD). Detaljne analize su eliminisale sve troparametarske raspodele. Od dvoparametarskih raspodela kandidati su bili Gama (GAM2) I Weibulova (W2) raspodela Rangiranje na 25 analiziranih stanica uz primenu tri pokazatelja kvaliteta prilagođavanja (PPCC, RMSE i MAD ) su pokazala da je GAM2 raspodela najprihvatljivija.
PB  - Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd
T2  - Vodoprivreda
T1  - Marginal distributions of daily precipitation in Serbia
T1  - Marginalne raspodele kumulativnih dnevnih padavina na prostoru Srbije
EP  - 54
IS  - 1-3
SP  - 39
VL  - 42
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_330
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Mihailović, Vladislava and Radić, Zoran",
year = "2010",
abstract = "This paper presents a part of results of the continuous efforts of the authors to promote, improve and popularize structural analyses of daily hydrological and meteorological series, first introduced by professor Vujica Yevjevich The main objectives of this paper are: (1) to present a new method which allows the same approach to both meteorological and hydrological series analyses; (2) to determine, in a systematical and objective way, which is the best fitting distribution to describe marginal distributions of cumulative daily rainfall on 25 climatological stations in Serbia for reference period 1961-1990. As precipitation series are discrete stochastic series (with a lot of zero daily values), for the droughts analyses is common to use cumulative rainfall values. In this study cumulative rainfall for past 30, 60 and 90 days (updated daily) are analyzed. The ability of various two and three-parameter probability distributions to describe marginal distributions of cumulative daily precipitation series, and preliminary selection of candidate distributions was performed using L-moment diagrams. Further analysis has shown that neither of three-parameter distributions are suitable for modeling marginal distributions of cumulative daily precipitation over given range of time scales. Among two-parameter models, rival candidate distributions were gamma (GAM2) and Weibull (W2) distributions. The results of performed goodness of fit tests, (the mean absolute deviation - MAD, the root mean square deviation - RMSD and probability plot correlation coefficient - PPCC), showed that the most suitable model is GAM2., Hidrološke i meteorološke serije su najčešće mešoviti procesi sastavljeni od determinističkih i stohastičkih komponenti. Ako se pretpostavi da tokom referentnog perioda (N=30 godina) mogu zanemariti trendovi usled globalnih promena, i da su promene kontinualne (da nema skokovitih promena), onda od determinističkih komponenti ostaju samo sezonske promene vezane za padavinski režim razmatranog područja. Opšte je poznato da se sezonske varijacije uspešno mogu modelirati primenom periodičnih funkcija (korišćenjem Fourierovih serija). Fundamentalne pretpostavke u ovom radu su: A. da sezonske promene (koje evidentno postoje u srednjim vrednostima) postoje i u svim ostalim parametrima (te da mogu modelirati primenom periodičnih funkcija); B. da se na osnovu modeliranih (periodičnih) vremenskih funkcija parametara dnevnih suma padavina stohastičke varijacije dnevnih padavina mogu modelirati primenom jedinstvenog modela za svih 365 marginalnih raspodela. Kao rezultat uvedenih pretpostavki dobijaju se glatke funkcije kvantila tokom hidrološke godine koje omogućavaju širok opseg primena: za analize i klasifikaciju padavinskih režima; za ranu detekciju sušnih i vlažnih perioda; za definisanje promenljivog praga kod analize suša; za analizu globalnih klimatskih promena, itd. Glavni ciljevi ovog članka su : (1) Da se prikaže nov metodološki pristup koji omogućava isti pristup kod analize meteoroloških i hidroloških serija (2) Da se na sistematičan i objektivan način utvrdi koja je teorijska funkcija raspodele najprihvatljivija za marginalne raspodele dnevnih suma padavina na 25 klimatoloških stanica u Srbiji za referentni period 1961-1990. godine. Kako su dnevne padavine prekidne stohastičke serije (sa puno vrednosti nula) analize su urađene za kumulativne kiše tokom 30, 60 i 90 dana. Analiziran je veći broj mogućih dvoparametarskih i troparametarskih raspodela. Preliminarni izbor izvršen je na osnovu dijagrama L-momenata i srednjih težinskih odstojanja (statistika AWOD). Detaljne analize su eliminisale sve troparametarske raspodele. Od dvoparametarskih raspodela kandidati su bili Gama (GAM2) I Weibulova (W2) raspodela Rangiranje na 25 analiziranih stanica uz primenu tri pokazatelja kvaliteta prilagođavanja (PPCC, RMSE i MAD ) su pokazala da je GAM2 raspodela najprihvatljivija.",
publisher = "Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd",
journal = "Vodoprivreda",
title = "Marginal distributions of daily precipitation in Serbia, Marginalne raspodele kumulativnih dnevnih padavina na prostoru Srbije",
pages = "54-39",
number = "1-3",
volume = "42",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_330"
}

Mihailović, V.,& Radić, Z.. (2010). Marginal distributions of daily precipitation in Serbia. in Vodoprivreda
Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd., 42(1-3), 39-54.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_330

Mihailović V, Radić Z. Marginal distributions of daily precipitation in Serbia. in Vodoprivreda. 2010;42(1-3):39-54.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_330 .

Mihailović, Vladislava, Radić, Zoran, "Marginal distributions of daily precipitation in Serbia" in Vodoprivreda, 42, no. 1-3 (2010):39-54,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_330 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Radić, Zoran
AU  - Mihailović, Vladislava
PY  - 2010
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/329
AB  - Previous analyses (Radić & Mihailović, 2006, [8 i [9]) based on new methodology showed the advantages of complete 365 daily data sets analyses against monthly or characteristic daily data. Advantages were demonstrated for the purposes of hydrological regime studies and droughts analyses. Methodology is based on TIPS method for structural analysis of daily hydrological series: (I) On the basis of observed daily flows series for N years, series of 365 daily values of a certain statistical parameter could be estimated (minima, maxima, conventional moments, L-moments, etc.) (II) Mutual dependence between series members in the original series introduces dependencies into derived series of statistical parameters, so it is possible to derive time functions which describe that dependence (III) Based on the established periodic functions of parameters 365 marginal probability distributions during the annual cycle could be derived. The main goal of this paper is the question of the selection of appropriate probability distribution type for marginal distributions of daily flows. Study is based on data from 33 representative profiles in Serbia and for the period till 2006. For the purpose of regional analyses and other applications referent period 1961- 1990 is selected for the marginal distribution studies. In the case of wide range of variation of skewness and kurtosis coefficients in the year, logical choice is a very flexible probability distribution. According to this, only three-parameter distributions were taken into the consideration. Possible three-parameter candidates are identified on the base of preliminary analysis of conventional moment ratio diagrams and L-moment ratio diagrams. Comparisons of distributions were evaluated using probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC), and relative root mean square error (rRMSE) and condition that the lower boundary of distribution shouldn't be negative. The LP3 distribution perfomance is found to be the best.
AB  - Prethodne analize (Radić & Mihailović, 2006a, 2006b) koje su bile bazirane na novoj metodologiji, pokazale su prednosti analize kompletnih skupova dnevnih podataka u odnosu na mesečne ili karakteristične dnevne podatke. Prednosti su demonstrirane u studiji hidroloških režima i analizi suša. Metodologija je bazirana na primeni TIPS metode za strukturnu analizu dnevnih hidroloških serija: (I) Na bazi opaženih dnevnih proticaja za N godina, mogu se odrediti nizovi od po 365 vrednosti nekog statističkog parametra (minimuma, maksimuma, konvencionalnih momenata i L-momenata, itd.) (II) Međuzavisnost članova originalnog niza prenosi se i na izvedene nizove statističkih parametara, tako da se mogu definisati vremenske funkcije koje će opisati tu zavisnost (III) Na bazi izvedenih periodičnih funkcija parametara može se definisati 365 marginalnih funkcija raspodele tokom godišnjeg ciklusa. Osnovni cilj ovog rada je da razreši pitanje izbora tipa raspodele za definisanje marginalnih raspodela dnevnih proticaja. Studija je zasnovana na analizi podataka sa 33 reprezentativna profila sa teritorije Srbije. Zbog potrebe regionalnih analiza i drugih primena odabran je tridesetogodišnji referentni period (1961-1990.). Dnevni podaci imaju širok opseg varijacije koeficijenta asimetrije tokom godišnjeg ciklusa i u ovom slučaju je logičan izbor vrlo fleksibilna raspodela. Zbog toga su u obzir uzete samo troparametarske raspodele. Mogući kandidati među raspodelama su identifikovani u preliminarnoj analizi uz pomoć dijagrama konvencionalnih i L-momenata. Kandidati su rangirani na osnovu poređenja odstupanja modela od empirijskih podataka, na bazi koeficijenta korelacije dijagrama verovatnoće (PPCC) i korena iz relativne srednje kvadratne greške (rRMSE), uz uslov da donja granica raspodele ne bi trebalo da bude manja od nule. Analiza je pokazala da je, prema primenjenim kriterijumima, najbolja raspodela log-Pirson 3.
PB  - Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd
T2  - Vodoprivreda
T1  - Marginal distributions for daily runoff series at representative profiles in Serbia
T1  - Marginalne raspodele dnevnih proticaja na reprezentativnim profilima u Srbiji
EP  - 38
IS  - 1-3
SP  - 17
VL  - 42
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_329
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Radić, Zoran and Mihailović, Vladislava",
year = "2010",
abstract = "Previous analyses (Radić & Mihailović, 2006, [8 i [9]) based on new methodology showed the advantages of complete 365 daily data sets analyses against monthly or characteristic daily data. Advantages were demonstrated for the purposes of hydrological regime studies and droughts analyses. Methodology is based on TIPS method for structural analysis of daily hydrological series: (I) On the basis of observed daily flows series for N years, series of 365 daily values of a certain statistical parameter could be estimated (minima, maxima, conventional moments, L-moments, etc.) (II) Mutual dependence between series members in the original series introduces dependencies into derived series of statistical parameters, so it is possible to derive time functions which describe that dependence (III) Based on the established periodic functions of parameters 365 marginal probability distributions during the annual cycle could be derived. The main goal of this paper is the question of the selection of appropriate probability distribution type for marginal distributions of daily flows. Study is based on data from 33 representative profiles in Serbia and for the period till 2006. For the purpose of regional analyses and other applications referent period 1961- 1990 is selected for the marginal distribution studies. In the case of wide range of variation of skewness and kurtosis coefficients in the year, logical choice is a very flexible probability distribution. According to this, only three-parameter distributions were taken into the consideration. Possible three-parameter candidates are identified on the base of preliminary analysis of conventional moment ratio diagrams and L-moment ratio diagrams. Comparisons of distributions were evaluated using probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC), and relative root mean square error (rRMSE) and condition that the lower boundary of distribution shouldn't be negative. The LP3 distribution perfomance is found to be the best., Prethodne analize (Radić & Mihailović, 2006a, 2006b) koje su bile bazirane na novoj metodologiji, pokazale su prednosti analize kompletnih skupova dnevnih podataka u odnosu na mesečne ili karakteristične dnevne podatke. Prednosti su demonstrirane u studiji hidroloških režima i analizi suša. Metodologija je bazirana na primeni TIPS metode za strukturnu analizu dnevnih hidroloških serija: (I) Na bazi opaženih dnevnih proticaja za N godina, mogu se odrediti nizovi od po 365 vrednosti nekog statističkog parametra (minimuma, maksimuma, konvencionalnih momenata i L-momenata, itd.) (II) Međuzavisnost članova originalnog niza prenosi se i na izvedene nizove statističkih parametara, tako da se mogu definisati vremenske funkcije koje će opisati tu zavisnost (III) Na bazi izvedenih periodičnih funkcija parametara može se definisati 365 marginalnih funkcija raspodele tokom godišnjeg ciklusa. Osnovni cilj ovog rada je da razreši pitanje izbora tipa raspodele za definisanje marginalnih raspodela dnevnih proticaja. Studija je zasnovana na analizi podataka sa 33 reprezentativna profila sa teritorije Srbije. Zbog potrebe regionalnih analiza i drugih primena odabran je tridesetogodišnji referentni period (1961-1990.). Dnevni podaci imaju širok opseg varijacije koeficijenta asimetrije tokom godišnjeg ciklusa i u ovom slučaju je logičan izbor vrlo fleksibilna raspodela. Zbog toga su u obzir uzete samo troparametarske raspodele. Mogući kandidati među raspodelama su identifikovani u preliminarnoj analizi uz pomoć dijagrama konvencionalnih i L-momenata. Kandidati su rangirani na osnovu poređenja odstupanja modela od empirijskih podataka, na bazi koeficijenta korelacije dijagrama verovatnoće (PPCC) i korena iz relativne srednje kvadratne greške (rRMSE), uz uslov da donja granica raspodele ne bi trebalo da bude manja od nule. Analiza je pokazala da je, prema primenjenim kriterijumima, najbolja raspodela log-Pirson 3.",
publisher = "Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd",
journal = "Vodoprivreda",
title = "Marginal distributions for daily runoff series at representative profiles in Serbia, Marginalne raspodele dnevnih proticaja na reprezentativnim profilima u Srbiji",
pages = "38-17",
number = "1-3",
volume = "42",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_329"
}

Radić, Z.,& Mihailović, V.. (2010). Marginal distributions for daily runoff series at representative profiles in Serbia. in Vodoprivreda
Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd., 42(1-3), 17-38.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_329

Radić Z, Mihailović V. Marginal distributions for daily runoff series at representative profiles in Serbia. in Vodoprivreda. 2010;42(1-3):17-38.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_329 .

Radić, Zoran, Mihailović, Vladislava, "Marginal distributions for daily runoff series at representative profiles in Serbia" in Vodoprivreda, 42, no. 1-3 (2010):17-38,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_329 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Radić, Zoran
AU  - Mihailović, Vladislava
PY  - 2006
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/139
AB  - Basic methodology of RUN and TIPS methods, developed and introduced by prof. V. Yevjevich, are presented in this paper. The application and practical aspects of the expanded versions of those methods to the drought event definition were presented, too. Presented results are limited to the qualitative and quantitative presentation of six methods for hydrological Streamflow droughts identification, based on fixed and varying thresholds. Methods have been tested on several representative catchments, but here are presented only results for River Velika Morava, st, Ljubičevski Most. In this way, drought regime for the large part of the central Serbia was included [11]. Methods were applied to the daily flows series. On the basis of daily flows series different (fixed or varying) crossing levels (thresholds) could be derived. For time series of defined threshold levels and observed series of daily flows, drought episodes of several months or several years could be identified, too. Newest methods in actual world researches of hydrological drought phenomena are presented in this paper, as well as new and original approaches and methods which were developed through National Water Program for Serbia (2004-2007). It is shown that some of newly introduced methods have significant advantages in comparison to present methods. .
AB  - U radu su predstavljene metodološke osnove RUN i TIPS metode uvedene u hidrološku praksu od strane Profesora Vujice Jevđevića, kao i praktični aspekti primene proširenih verzija ovih metoda pri definisanju suša. Prikazani rezultati su ograničeni na prikaz kvalitativnog i kvantitativnog poređenja 6 metoda za identifikaciju hidroloških suša površinskih vodabaziranih na fiksnim i promenljivim pragovima. Metode su testirane na većem broju reprezentativnih hidroloških profila na prostoru Srbije, a u okviru ovog rada su prikazani rezultati koji se odnose na profil "Ljubičevski Most" na reci Velika Morava čime je obuhvaćen režim pojava suša u većem delu centralne Srbije [l 1]. Osnovu za primenu prikazanih metoda čine dnevne serije proticaja. Na bazi dnevnih podataka iz referentnog perioda se mogu definisati različiti (konstantni ili promenljivi) pragovi presecanja. Za definisane vremenske serije pragova tokom hidrološke godine i opaženih dnevnih proticaja izdvajaju se sušne epizode koje se javljaju unutar jedne kalendarske godine ili se prenose iz godine u godinu. Na taj način moguće je registrovati i višemesečne suše koje se prenose iz godine u godinu kao i višegodišnje suše (ako postoje). Rad prikazuje najnovije metode iz oblasti aktuelnih istraživanja fenomena hidroloških suša koje se u svetu trenutno koriste, ali i promoviše nove i originalne pristupe i metode koji su razvijene u okviru Nacionalnog programa uređenja, zaštite i korišćenja voda u Srbiji (MNŽSRS, 2004-2007.). Pokazano je da upravo neke od ovih metoda pokazuju značajno poboljšanje u odnosu na postojeće metode. .
PB  - Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd
T2  - Vodoprivreda
T1  - Comparative analysis of hydrological drought definition methods
T1  - Uporedna analiza metoda za definisanje hidroloških suša
EP  - 263
IS  - 4-6
SP  - 247
VL  - 38
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_139
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Radić, Zoran and Mihailović, Vladislava",
year = "2006",
abstract = "Basic methodology of RUN and TIPS methods, developed and introduced by prof. V. Yevjevich, are presented in this paper. The application and practical aspects of the expanded versions of those methods to the drought event definition were presented, too. Presented results are limited to the qualitative and quantitative presentation of six methods for hydrological Streamflow droughts identification, based on fixed and varying thresholds. Methods have been tested on several representative catchments, but here are presented only results for River Velika Morava, st, Ljubičevski Most. In this way, drought regime for the large part of the central Serbia was included [11]. Methods were applied to the daily flows series. On the basis of daily flows series different (fixed or varying) crossing levels (thresholds) could be derived. For time series of defined threshold levels and observed series of daily flows, drought episodes of several months or several years could be identified, too. Newest methods in actual world researches of hydrological drought phenomena are presented in this paper, as well as new and original approaches and methods which were developed through National Water Program for Serbia (2004-2007). It is shown that some of newly introduced methods have significant advantages in comparison to present methods. ., U radu su predstavljene metodološke osnove RUN i TIPS metode uvedene u hidrološku praksu od strane Profesora Vujice Jevđevića, kao i praktični aspekti primene proširenih verzija ovih metoda pri definisanju suša. Prikazani rezultati su ograničeni na prikaz kvalitativnog i kvantitativnog poređenja 6 metoda za identifikaciju hidroloških suša površinskih vodabaziranih na fiksnim i promenljivim pragovima. Metode su testirane na većem broju reprezentativnih hidroloških profila na prostoru Srbije, a u okviru ovog rada su prikazani rezultati koji se odnose na profil "Ljubičevski Most" na reci Velika Morava čime je obuhvaćen režim pojava suša u većem delu centralne Srbije [l 1]. Osnovu za primenu prikazanih metoda čine dnevne serije proticaja. Na bazi dnevnih podataka iz referentnog perioda se mogu definisati različiti (konstantni ili promenljivi) pragovi presecanja. Za definisane vremenske serije pragova tokom hidrološke godine i opaženih dnevnih proticaja izdvajaju se sušne epizode koje se javljaju unutar jedne kalendarske godine ili se prenose iz godine u godinu. Na taj način moguće je registrovati i višemesečne suše koje se prenose iz godine u godinu kao i višegodišnje suše (ako postoje). Rad prikazuje najnovije metode iz oblasti aktuelnih istraživanja fenomena hidroloških suša koje se u svetu trenutno koriste, ali i promoviše nove i originalne pristupe i metode koji su razvijene u okviru Nacionalnog programa uređenja, zaštite i korišćenja voda u Srbiji (MNŽSRS, 2004-2007.). Pokazano je da upravo neke od ovih metoda pokazuju značajno poboljšanje u odnosu na postojeće metode. .",
publisher = "Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd",
journal = "Vodoprivreda",
title = "Comparative analysis of hydrological drought definition methods, Uporedna analiza metoda za definisanje hidroloških suša",
pages = "263-247",
number = "4-6",
volume = "38",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_139"
}

Radić, Z.,& Mihailović, V.. (2006). Comparative analysis of hydrological drought definition methods. in Vodoprivreda
Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd., 38(4-6), 247-263.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_139

Radić Z, Mihailović V. Comparative analysis of hydrological drought definition methods. in Vodoprivreda. 2006;38(4-6):247-263.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_139 .

Radić, Zoran, Mihailović, Vladislava, "Comparative analysis of hydrological drought definition methods" in Vodoprivreda, 38, no. 4-6 (2006):247-263,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_139 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Radić, Zoran
AU  - Mihailović, Vladislava
PY  - 2006
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/144
AB  - Structure of daily hydrologic series, based on TIPS methodology (Yevjevich, 1984), is extended and new possibilities for stochastic analyses and applications are presented. First, estimation of smoothed time functions of statistics (mean, minimum, maximum, etc.) for each date in a hydrological year are derived. Periodic time functions are modeled by applying Fourier series analysis. It is shown that dimensionless time functions for main, minimum and maximum can be used for hydrological regime study and classifications. Method is demonstrated on daily data sets from 20 catchments. Data from Serbia and MED-HYCOS data-base are used. Hydrological regime differences between Mediterranean and continental climatic region are evident. In Serbia, clear distinction on hydrological regime exists between international river basins (Danube, Sava and Tisa river) and catchments at the central part of the country. Clear evidence of regime differences on separate international river basis in exists too. For the regional regime studies it is recommended that the same referent period of data can be adopted. That is important specially for the catchments with the largest flows variations (for example station "S.M. Di Cafiero", River Ofanto. Italy). Second, by applying smoothed time functions for statistics presentation, marginal distributions for each date can be derived. Concerning statistic function variations along hydrological year, it is assumed that unique (LP3) distribution can be applied. Marginal distributions, (derived on cited way), produce smoothed daily functions of probabilities of exceedance. Latest functions can be applied for catchment state behavior analyses (catchment moisture state behavior monitoring), for the purpose of droughts or floods analyses and flood and drought management. Some of cited applications are subject for the future work. By developing macro-programs in the EXCEL environment we make tools for easy derivation of periodic functions, automatic derivation of 365 marginal distributions and daily functions of probabilities of exceedance along hydrological year. In that way, complicated procedure for extended TIPS method application becomes available. So, we hope result presented in this paper will stimulate hydrologist to use TIPS method introduced by Prof. V. Yevjevich and more sophisticated stochastic models and to extract more information from available daily data sets of observed discharges.
AB  - U raspoloživoj literaturi postoji samo jedna knjiga koja se bavi strukturnim analizama kontinualnih vremenskih serija dnevnih vrednosti hidrometeoroloških podataka. To je knjiga prof. Vujice Jevđevića: "Structure of Daily Hydrologic Series" (Water Resources Publications, Fort Collins, Colorado, U.S.A.,1984). Tom knjigom prof. Jevdjević je zaokružio stvaralački opus vezan za stohastičke analize koje su decenijama predstavljale glavni domen njegovih interesovanja, istraživanja i predavanja koje je držao na svim kontinentima. U navedenoj knjizi on je metodu dekompozicije hidroloških serija, koja mu je donela svetsku slavu, bezbroj međunarodnih nagrada i priznanja, i po kojoj će njegovo ime ostati trajno zapamćeno, po prvi put nazvao TIPS metodom (skraćenica od prvih slova engleskih reci: Tendency-Intermitency-Periodicity-Stohasticity). Oblast primene TIPS metode (na kojoj je najviše radio prof. V. Jevđević) je simulacija (predviđanje mogućih stanja) realizacija vremenskih serija. Interesantno je napomenuti da je jedna od prvih primena TIPS metode (sredinim šezdesetih godina XX veka) bila simulacija smene ledenih i toplijih perioda godina na planeti Zemlji, što predstavlja kopču sa istraživanjima Milutina Milankovića - jednog od članova Komisije za odbranu doktorata VJevđevića u Srpskoj Akademiji Nauka i Umetnosti. Knjiga "Struktura dnevnih hidroloških serija" /Jevđević V., 19847 detaljno se bavi analizom strukturnih karakteristika dnevnih serija padavina i proticaja, kao i kraćim, teorijskim razmatranjima mogućnosti za primenu nekoliko teorijskih funkcija raspodela u modeliranju probabilističkih karakteristika dnevnih serija. U okviru ovog članka prikazano više proširenja metode strukturnih analiza dnevnih hidroloških serija: (1) Umesto na originalne podatke (osmotrene vrednosti dnevnih proticaja) TIPS metoda je primenjena na modeliranje 6 statističkih funkcija: minimuma, maksimuma, srednjih vrednosti, standardne devijacije, koeficijenta asimetrije i koeficijenta spljoštenosti (2) Pokazano je kako se metoda strukturne analize statističkih funkcija dnevnih proticaja može koristiti kao model za klasifikaciju hidroloških režima (3) Pokazano je kako se metoda strukturne analize statističkih funkcija dnevnih proticaja može koristiti pri određivanju 365 statističkih distribucija dnevnih proticaja i na bazi toga proizvesti tzv. "uglačani sintetički hidrogrami" (4) Pokazano je kako se uglačani sisntetički hidrogrami mogu koristiti u Operativnoj hidrologiji za kontinualno praćenje stanja vlažnosti sliva i ranu detekciju sušnih perioda i plavnog potencijala (5) Ukazano je na mogućnosti daljeg proširenja primene metode strukturne analize dnevnih proticaja (analizu poplava i suša) Metoda strukturne analize i neke od mogućnosti primena su demonstrirane na podacima sa 21 sliva iz međunarodne baze podataka WMO (MED-HYCOS) i 15 reprezentativnih slivova sa prostora Srbije.
PB  - Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd
T2  - Vodoprivreda
T1  - Theory and new applications of structure analyses of daily hydrologic series
T1  - Teorijske osnove i proširenje oblasti primene strukturne analize dnevnih hidroloških serija
EP  - 22
IS  - 1-3
SP  - 3
VL  - 38
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_144
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Radić, Zoran and Mihailović, Vladislava",
year = "2006",
abstract = "Structure of daily hydrologic series, based on TIPS methodology (Yevjevich, 1984), is extended and new possibilities for stochastic analyses and applications are presented. First, estimation of smoothed time functions of statistics (mean, minimum, maximum, etc.) for each date in a hydrological year are derived. Periodic time functions are modeled by applying Fourier series analysis. It is shown that dimensionless time functions for main, minimum and maximum can be used for hydrological regime study and classifications. Method is demonstrated on daily data sets from 20 catchments. Data from Serbia and MED-HYCOS data-base are used. Hydrological regime differences between Mediterranean and continental climatic region are evident. In Serbia, clear distinction on hydrological regime exists between international river basins (Danube, Sava and Tisa river) and catchments at the central part of the country. Clear evidence of regime differences on separate international river basis in exists too. For the regional regime studies it is recommended that the same referent period of data can be adopted. That is important specially for the catchments with the largest flows variations (for example station "S.M. Di Cafiero", River Ofanto. Italy). Second, by applying smoothed time functions for statistics presentation, marginal distributions for each date can be derived. Concerning statistic function variations along hydrological year, it is assumed that unique (LP3) distribution can be applied. Marginal distributions, (derived on cited way), produce smoothed daily functions of probabilities of exceedance. Latest functions can be applied for catchment state behavior analyses (catchment moisture state behavior monitoring), for the purpose of droughts or floods analyses and flood and drought management. Some of cited applications are subject for the future work. By developing macro-programs in the EXCEL environment we make tools for easy derivation of periodic functions, automatic derivation of 365 marginal distributions and daily functions of probabilities of exceedance along hydrological year. In that way, complicated procedure for extended TIPS method application becomes available. So, we hope result presented in this paper will stimulate hydrologist to use TIPS method introduced by Prof. V. Yevjevich and more sophisticated stochastic models and to extract more information from available daily data sets of observed discharges., U raspoloživoj literaturi postoji samo jedna knjiga koja se bavi strukturnim analizama kontinualnih vremenskih serija dnevnih vrednosti hidrometeoroloških podataka. To je knjiga prof. Vujice Jevđevića: "Structure of Daily Hydrologic Series" (Water Resources Publications, Fort Collins, Colorado, U.S.A.,1984). Tom knjigom prof. Jevdjević je zaokružio stvaralački opus vezan za stohastičke analize koje su decenijama predstavljale glavni domen njegovih interesovanja, istraživanja i predavanja koje je držao na svim kontinentima. U navedenoj knjizi on je metodu dekompozicije hidroloških serija, koja mu je donela svetsku slavu, bezbroj međunarodnih nagrada i priznanja, i po kojoj će njegovo ime ostati trajno zapamćeno, po prvi put nazvao TIPS metodom (skraćenica od prvih slova engleskih reci: Tendency-Intermitency-Periodicity-Stohasticity). Oblast primene TIPS metode (na kojoj je najviše radio prof. V. Jevđević) je simulacija (predviđanje mogućih stanja) realizacija vremenskih serija. Interesantno je napomenuti da je jedna od prvih primena TIPS metode (sredinim šezdesetih godina XX veka) bila simulacija smene ledenih i toplijih perioda godina na planeti Zemlji, što predstavlja kopču sa istraživanjima Milutina Milankovića - jednog od članova Komisije za odbranu doktorata VJevđevića u Srpskoj Akademiji Nauka i Umetnosti. Knjiga "Struktura dnevnih hidroloških serija" /Jevđević V., 19847 detaljno se bavi analizom strukturnih karakteristika dnevnih serija padavina i proticaja, kao i kraćim, teorijskim razmatranjima mogućnosti za primenu nekoliko teorijskih funkcija raspodela u modeliranju probabilističkih karakteristika dnevnih serija. U okviru ovog članka prikazano više proširenja metode strukturnih analiza dnevnih hidroloških serija: (1) Umesto na originalne podatke (osmotrene vrednosti dnevnih proticaja) TIPS metoda je primenjena na modeliranje 6 statističkih funkcija: minimuma, maksimuma, srednjih vrednosti, standardne devijacije, koeficijenta asimetrije i koeficijenta spljoštenosti (2) Pokazano je kako se metoda strukturne analize statističkih funkcija dnevnih proticaja može koristiti kao model za klasifikaciju hidroloških režima (3) Pokazano je kako se metoda strukturne analize statističkih funkcija dnevnih proticaja može koristiti pri određivanju 365 statističkih distribucija dnevnih proticaja i na bazi toga proizvesti tzv. "uglačani sintetički hidrogrami" (4) Pokazano je kako se uglačani sisntetički hidrogrami mogu koristiti u Operativnoj hidrologiji za kontinualno praćenje stanja vlažnosti sliva i ranu detekciju sušnih perioda i plavnog potencijala (5) Ukazano je na mogućnosti daljeg proširenja primene metode strukturne analize dnevnih proticaja (analizu poplava i suša) Metoda strukturne analize i neke od mogućnosti primena su demonstrirane na podacima sa 21 sliva iz međunarodne baze podataka WMO (MED-HYCOS) i 15 reprezentativnih slivova sa prostora Srbije.",
publisher = "Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd",
journal = "Vodoprivreda",
title = "Theory and new applications of structure analyses of daily hydrologic series, Teorijske osnove i proširenje oblasti primene strukturne analize dnevnih hidroloških serija",
pages = "22-3",
number = "1-3",
volume = "38",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_144"
}

Radić, Z.,& Mihailović, V.. (2006). Theory and new applications of structure analyses of daily hydrologic series. in Vodoprivreda
Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd., 38(1-3), 3-22.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_144

Radić Z, Mihailović V. Theory and new applications of structure analyses of daily hydrologic series. in Vodoprivreda. 2006;38(1-3):3-22.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_144 .

Radić, Zoran, Mihailović, Vladislava, "Theory and new applications of structure analyses of daily hydrologic series" in Vodoprivreda, 38, no. 1-3 (2006):3-22,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_144 .