TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Šotić, Aleksandar
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2835
AB  - Akumulacije kao složeni vodoprivredni sistemi predstavljaju ključne infrastrukturne elemente, neophodne za pouzdano upravljanje vodnim resursima. Poslednjih godina, ovi sistemi su izloženi sve nepovoljnijim prirodnim i antropogenim uticajima (dotrajala i zasterala infrastruktura, prirodne nepogode, globalne krize, ektremni hidrološki događaji itd.). Na ovaj način, dodatan pritisak se nameće odgovornim operaterima, koji moraju da upravljaju akumulacijama u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima, koji se nalaze izvan projektnih okvira. Jedan od mogućih pristupa za 
podršku donosiocima odluka je upotrebna simulacionih alata za modeliranje različitih „Šta ako?“ scenarija. Posebno se izdvaja upotreba modela dinamike sistema, koji su pokazali kapacitet da adekvatno predstave kompleksnost ovakvih sistema. U ovom radu je predstavljen okvir, ili okvirna metodologija, od 11 koraka, za dinamičko modeliranje rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima. Okvir obuhvata celine kao što su: formiranje modela sistema, generisanje ulaznih scenarija, simuliranje rada sistema i evaluacija performansi. Fokus je na koracima koji pokrivaju konceptualnu dekompoziciju akumulacija kao složenih sistema, identifikaciju indikatora otkaza, 
definisanje i implementaciju funkcija otkaza u modele dinamike podsistema i dinamičko modeliranje otkaza. Kroz ove korake, predstavljen je nov pristup za dinamičko modeliranje otkaza (parcijalnih ili potpunih) akumulacije kao celine i/ili odgovarajućih podsistema, 
koji se neretko javljaju u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima. Za svaki podsistem koji je sklon otkazu, definiše se indikator otkaza. Funkcije otkaza, koje koriste generičke indikatore funkcionalnosti čija vrednost može biti u opsegu od 0 do 1, modifikuju vrednost indikatora otkaza tokom simulacija, modelirajući uticaj otkaza komponenata/podsistema na rad akumulacije. Primer akumulacije Zavoj, odnosno HE Pirot, je iskorišćen da bi se ilustrovale mogućnosti predložene metodologije. Razmatrani su hipotetički slučajevi fizičkih oštećenja na različitim objektima 
brane, porast merne nesigurnosti, nedostatak rezervnih delova za popravku u periodima svetskih kriznih događaja. Rezultati primene su omogućili izvođenje preliminarnih zaključaka o svrsishodnosti analiza rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima.
PB  - Srpsko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje
T2  - Vodoprivreda
T1  - Okvir za dinamičko modeliranje rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima
T1  - Framework for the dynamic modelling of the reservoir operation in adverse operating conditions
VL  - 54
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2835
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Ivetić, Damjan and Milašinović, Miloš and Stojković, Milan and Šotić, Aleksandar",
year = "2022",
abstract = "Akumulacije kao složeni vodoprivredni sistemi predstavljaju ključne infrastrukturne elemente, neophodne za pouzdano upravljanje vodnim resursima. Poslednjih godina, ovi sistemi su izloženi sve nepovoljnijim prirodnim i antropogenim uticajima (dotrajala i zasterala infrastruktura, prirodne nepogode, globalne krize, ektremni hidrološki događaji itd.). Na ovaj način, dodatan pritisak se nameće odgovornim operaterima, koji moraju da upravljaju akumulacijama u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima, koji se nalaze izvan projektnih okvira. Jedan od mogućih pristupa za 
podršku donosiocima odluka je upotrebna simulacionih alata za modeliranje različitih „Šta ako?“ scenarija. Posebno se izdvaja upotreba modela dinamike sistema, koji su pokazali kapacitet da adekvatno predstave kompleksnost ovakvih sistema. U ovom radu je predstavljen okvir, ili okvirna metodologija, od 11 koraka, za dinamičko modeliranje rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima. Okvir obuhvata celine kao što su: formiranje modela sistema, generisanje ulaznih scenarija, simuliranje rada sistema i evaluacija performansi. Fokus je na koracima koji pokrivaju konceptualnu dekompoziciju akumulacija kao složenih sistema, identifikaciju indikatora otkaza, 
definisanje i implementaciju funkcija otkaza u modele dinamike podsistema i dinamičko modeliranje otkaza. Kroz ove korake, predstavljen je nov pristup za dinamičko modeliranje otkaza (parcijalnih ili potpunih) akumulacije kao celine i/ili odgovarajućih podsistema, 
koji se neretko javljaju u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima. Za svaki podsistem koji je sklon otkazu, definiše se indikator otkaza. Funkcije otkaza, koje koriste generičke indikatore funkcionalnosti čija vrednost može biti u opsegu od 0 do 1, modifikuju vrednost indikatora otkaza tokom simulacija, modelirajući uticaj otkaza komponenata/podsistema na rad akumulacije. Primer akumulacije Zavoj, odnosno HE Pirot, je iskorišćen da bi se ilustrovale mogućnosti predložene metodologije. Razmatrani su hipotetički slučajevi fizičkih oštećenja na različitim objektima 
brane, porast merne nesigurnosti, nedostatak rezervnih delova za popravku u periodima svetskih kriznih događaja. Rezultati primene su omogućili izvođenje preliminarnih zaključaka o svrsishodnosti analiza rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima.",
publisher = "Srpsko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje",
journal = "Vodoprivreda",
title = "Okvir za dinamičko modeliranje rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima, Framework for the dynamic modelling of the reservoir operation in adverse operating conditions",
volume = "54",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2835"
}

Ivetić, D., Milašinović, M., Stojković, M.,& Šotić, A.. (2022). Okvir za dinamičko modeliranje rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima. in Vodoprivreda
Srpsko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje., 54.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2835

Ivetić D, Milašinović M, Stojković M, Šotić A. Okvir za dinamičko modeliranje rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima. in Vodoprivreda. 2022;54.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2835 .

Ivetić, Damjan, Milašinović, Miloš, Stojković, Milan, Šotić, Aleksandar, "Okvir za dinamičko modeliranje rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima" in Vodoprivreda, 54 (2022),
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2835 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Šotić, Aleksandar
AU  - Charbonnier, Nicolas
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2673
AB  - Dam and reservoir systems (DRSs) are crucial aspects of the infrastructure necessary for reliable water resource management. Nowadays, DRSs are being increasingly affected by numerous natural and anthropogenic impacts (aging and outdated infrastructure, climate change, natural hazards, global crises, etc.). Hence, additional pressure on DRS management is being applied as DRSs must be operated in adverse operating conditions, outside of their design envelopes. Since there is no practical way to redesign DRSs to meet all possible adverse conditions, efficient simulation tools are necessary for various “what-if” analyses. A system dynamics (SD) approach can be used, as it has shown the capacity to comprehend the intrinsic system complexity. In this paper, an 11-step framework for the dynamic modelling of reduced functionality in a DRS and the emulation of the system operation in adverse conditions is proposed. The framework covers the system model design, input scenario generation, system simulation, and performance evaluation steps. A focus is placed on the steps related to system decomposition, the identification of failure-indicative parameters, the definition and implementation of failure functions in the subsystem dynamic models, and dynamic failure modelling. Through these steps, a novel procedure is proposed for the dynamic modelling of the DRS subsystems’ failures (reduced functionality), common in the operation of DRSs under adverse conditions. For each subsystem prone to failure, failure-indicative parameters are identified. Failure functions employing generic functionality indicators, with values spanning from 0 to 1, are suggested to modify the values of the failure-indicative parameters in simulations and emulate the component failure impacts on DRS operation. Possibilities for modelling failure modes for different subsystems, varying in nature, duration, and magnitude are discussed. Potential physical damage to the system components, increases in measurement uncertainty, and the lack of the spare parts during periods of global crisis are applied as disturbances to the Pirot DRS case study to illustrate the possibilities of the suggested framework’s application for DRS failure modelling. It was concluded that the proposed framework allowed for the detection of severe impacts on system performance, emphasizing the need for DRS dynamic failure modelling in system analysis.
PB  - MDPI
T2  - Water MDPI
T1  - Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions
VL  - 14(10)
DO  - 10.3390/w14101549
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Ivetić, Damjan and Milašinović, Miloš and Stojković, Milan and Šotić, Aleksandar and Charbonnier, Nicolas and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2022",
abstract = "Dam and reservoir systems (DRSs) are crucial aspects of the infrastructure necessary for reliable water resource management. Nowadays, DRSs are being increasingly affected by numerous natural and anthropogenic impacts (aging and outdated infrastructure, climate change, natural hazards, global crises, etc.). Hence, additional pressure on DRS management is being applied as DRSs must be operated in adverse operating conditions, outside of their design envelopes. Since there is no practical way to redesign DRSs to meet all possible adverse conditions, efficient simulation tools are necessary for various “what-if” analyses. A system dynamics (SD) approach can be used, as it has shown the capacity to comprehend the intrinsic system complexity. In this paper, an 11-step framework for the dynamic modelling of reduced functionality in a DRS and the emulation of the system operation in adverse conditions is proposed. The framework covers the system model design, input scenario generation, system simulation, and performance evaluation steps. A focus is placed on the steps related to system decomposition, the identification of failure-indicative parameters, the definition and implementation of failure functions in the subsystem dynamic models, and dynamic failure modelling. Through these steps, a novel procedure is proposed for the dynamic modelling of the DRS subsystems’ failures (reduced functionality), common in the operation of DRSs under adverse conditions. For each subsystem prone to failure, failure-indicative parameters are identified. Failure functions employing generic functionality indicators, with values spanning from 0 to 1, are suggested to modify the values of the failure-indicative parameters in simulations and emulate the component failure impacts on DRS operation. Possibilities for modelling failure modes for different subsystems, varying in nature, duration, and magnitude are discussed. Potential physical damage to the system components, increases in measurement uncertainty, and the lack of the spare parts during periods of global crisis are applied as disturbances to the Pirot DRS case study to illustrate the possibilities of the suggested framework’s application for DRS failure modelling. It was concluded that the proposed framework allowed for the detection of severe impacts on system performance, emphasizing the need for DRS dynamic failure modelling in system analysis.",
publisher = "MDPI",
journal = "Water MDPI",
title = "Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions",
volume = "14(10)",
doi = "10.3390/w14101549"
}

Ivetić, D., Milašinović, M., Stojković, M., Šotić, A., Charbonnier, N.,& Milivojević, N.. (2022). Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions. in Water MDPI
MDPI., 14(10).
https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101549

Ivetić D, Milašinović M, Stojković M, Šotić A, Charbonnier N, Milivojević N. Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions. in Water MDPI. 2022;14(10).
doi:10.3390/w14101549 .

Ivetić, Damjan, Milašinović, Miloš, Stojković, Milan, Šotić, Aleksandar, Charbonnier, Nicolas, Milivojević, Nikola, "Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions" in Water MDPI, 14(10) (2022),
https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101549 . .

TY  - CONF
AU  - Šotić, Aleksandar
AU  - Pavlović, Dragutin
AU  - Ivetić, Marko
PY  - 2015
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1325
AB  - Hydraulic structures and systems are almost always conceived, designed, constructed, operated and maintained under the inevitable conditions of risk and uncertainty, where they are expected to achieve multiple and mutually conflicting objectives. In the process of comparing risks, traditionally, catastrophic losses that have little probability of the occurrence commensurate with minor damages that have high probability. However, it is obvious that low probability major flood event can not be addressed by the decision makers in the same way as high probability small floods, which is a result of a function that generates expected values. It is clear that the above two cases are far from being equal or proportional. The paper considers the problem of the risk of extreme events and presents method for determining the conditional expected value by partitioned multiobjective risk method, and demonstrates its potential applications through case studies.
PB  - Građevinski fakultet Subotica, Subotica
C3  - Zbornik radova međunarodne konferencije Savremena dostignuća u građevinarstvu 2015
T1  - Application of partitioned multiobjective risk method on extreme events
T1  - Primena metode deljenog višeciljnog rizika pri ekstremnim događajima
EP  - 533
SP  - 527
VL  - 31
DO  - 10.14415/konferencijaGFS2015.065
ER  - 

@conference{
author = "Šotić, Aleksandar and Pavlović, Dragutin and Ivetić, Marko",
year = "2015",
abstract = "Hydraulic structures and systems are almost always conceived, designed, constructed, operated and maintained under the inevitable conditions of risk and uncertainty, where they are expected to achieve multiple and mutually conflicting objectives. In the process of comparing risks, traditionally, catastrophic losses that have little probability of the occurrence commensurate with minor damages that have high probability. However, it is obvious that low probability major flood event can not be addressed by the decision makers in the same way as high probability small floods, which is a result of a function that generates expected values. It is clear that the above two cases are far from being equal or proportional. The paper considers the problem of the risk of extreme events and presents method for determining the conditional expected value by partitioned multiobjective risk method, and demonstrates its potential applications through case studies.",
publisher = "Građevinski fakultet Subotica, Subotica",
journal = "Zbornik radova međunarodne konferencije Savremena dostignuća u građevinarstvu 2015",
title = "Application of partitioned multiobjective risk method on extreme events, Primena metode deljenog višeciljnog rizika pri ekstremnim događajima",
pages = "533-527",
volume = "31",
doi = "10.14415/konferencijaGFS2015.065"
}

Šotić, A., Pavlović, D.,& Ivetić, M.. (2015). Application of partitioned multiobjective risk method on extreme events. in Zbornik radova međunarodne konferencije Savremena dostignuća u građevinarstvu 2015
Građevinski fakultet Subotica, Subotica., 31, 527-533.
https://doi.org/10.14415/konferencijaGFS2015.065

Šotić A, Pavlović D, Ivetić M. Application of partitioned multiobjective risk method on extreme events. in Zbornik radova međunarodne konferencije Savremena dostignuća u građevinarstvu 2015. 2015;31:527-533.
doi:10.14415/konferencijaGFS2015.065 .

Šotić, Aleksandar, Pavlović, Dragutin, Ivetić, Marko, "Application of partitioned multiobjective risk method on extreme events" in Zbornik radova međunarodne konferencije Savremena dostignuća u građevinarstvu 2015, 31 (2015):527-533,
https://doi.org/10.14415/konferencijaGFS2015.065 . .