TY  - JOUR
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Savić, Dragan
PY  - 2023
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3034
AB  - Climate change, energy transition, population growth and other natural and anthropogenic impacts, combined with outdated (unfashionable) infrastructure, can force Dam and Reservoir Systems (DRS) operation outside of the design envelope (adverse operating conditions). Since there is no easy way to redesign or upgrade the existing DRSs to mitigate against all the potential failure situations, Digital Twins (DT) of DRSs are required to assess system’s performance under various what-if scenarios. The current state of practice in failure modelling is that failures (system’s not performing at the expected level or not at all) are randomly created and implemented in simulation models. That approach helps in identifying the riskiest parts (subsystems) of the DRS (risk-based approach), but does not consider hazards leading to failures, their occurrence probabilities or subsystem failure exposure. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper presents a more realistic failure scenario generator based on a causal approach. Here, the novel failure simulation approach utilizes fuzzy logic reasoning to create DRS failures based on hazard severity and subsystems’ reliability. Combined with the system dynamics (SD) model this general failure simulation tool is designed to be used with any DRS. The potential of the proposed method is demonstrated using the Pirot DRS case study in Serbia over a 10-year simulation period. Results show that even occasional hazards (as for more than 97% of the simulation there were no hazards), combined with outdated infrastructure can reduce DRS performance by 50%, which can help in identifying possible “hidden” failure risks and support system maintenance prioritization.
PB  - Springer Link
T2  - Water Resources Management
T1  - Failure Conditions Assessment of Complex Water Systems Using Fuzzy Logic
DO  - 10.1007/s11269-022-03420-w
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Milašinović, Miloš and Ivetić, Damjan and Stojković, Milan and Savić, Dragan",
year = "2023",
abstract = "Climate change, energy transition, population growth and other natural and anthropogenic impacts, combined with outdated (unfashionable) infrastructure, can force Dam and Reservoir Systems (DRS) operation outside of the design envelope (adverse operating conditions). Since there is no easy way to redesign or upgrade the existing DRSs to mitigate against all the potential failure situations, Digital Twins (DT) of DRSs are required to assess system’s performance under various what-if scenarios. The current state of practice in failure modelling is that failures (system’s not performing at the expected level or not at all) are randomly created and implemented in simulation models. That approach helps in identifying the riskiest parts (subsystems) of the DRS (risk-based approach), but does not consider hazards leading to failures, their occurrence probabilities or subsystem failure exposure. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper presents a more realistic failure scenario generator based on a causal approach. Here, the novel failure simulation approach utilizes fuzzy logic reasoning to create DRS failures based on hazard severity and subsystems’ reliability. Combined with the system dynamics (SD) model this general failure simulation tool is designed to be used with any DRS. The potential of the proposed method is demonstrated using the Pirot DRS case study in Serbia over a 10-year simulation period. Results show that even occasional hazards (as for more than 97% of the simulation there were no hazards), combined with outdated infrastructure can reduce DRS performance by 50%, which can help in identifying possible “hidden” failure risks and support system maintenance prioritization.",
publisher = "Springer Link",
journal = "Water Resources Management",
title = "Failure Conditions Assessment of Complex Water Systems Using Fuzzy Logic",
doi = "10.1007/s11269-022-03420-w"
}

Milašinović, M., Ivetić, D., Stojković, M.,& Savić, D.. (2023). Failure Conditions Assessment of Complex Water Systems Using Fuzzy Logic. in Water Resources Management
Springer Link..
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03420-w

Milašinović M, Ivetić D, Stojković M, Savić D. Failure Conditions Assessment of Complex Water Systems Using Fuzzy Logic. in Water Resources Management. 2023;.
doi:10.1007/s11269-022-03420-w .

Milašinović, Miloš, Ivetić, Damjan, Stojković, Milan, Savić, Dragan, "Failure Conditions Assessment of Complex Water Systems Using Fuzzy Logic" in Water Resources Management (2023),
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03420-w . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Marjanović, Dušan
AU  - Rakić, Dragan
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Simić, Višnja
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
AU  - Trajković, Slaviša
PY  - 2023
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3040
AB  - The objective of this research is to propose a novel framework for assessing the consequences of hazardous events on a water resources system using dynamic resilience. Two types of hazardous events were considered: a severe flood event and an earthquake. Given that one or both hazards have occurred and considering the intensity of those events, the main characteristics of flood
 dynamic resilience were evaluated. The framework utilizes an artificial neural network (ANN) to estimate dynamic resilience. The ANN was trained using a large, generated dataset that included a wide range of situations, from relatively mild hazards to severe ones. A case study was performed on the Pirot water system (Serbia). Dynamic resilience was derived from the developed system dynamics model alongside the hazardous models implemented. The most extreme hazard combination results in the robustness of 0.04, indicating a combination of an earthquake with a significant magnitude and a flood hydrograph with a low frequency of occurrence. In the case of moderate hazards, the system robustness has a median value of 0.2 and the rapidity median value of 162 h. The ANN’s efficacy was quantified using the average relative error metric which equals 2.14% and 1.77% for robustness and rapidity, respectively.
PB  - IWA Publishing
T2  - Journal of Hydroinformatics
T1  - Assessment of water resources system resilience under hazardous events using system dynamic approach and artificial neural networks
DO  - 10.2166/hydro.2023.069
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Stojković, Milan and Marjanović, Dušan and Rakić, Dragan and Ivetić, Damjan and Simić, Višnja and Milivojević, Nikola and Trajković, Slaviša",
year = "2023",
abstract = "The objective of this research is to propose a novel framework for assessing the consequences of hazardous events on a water resources system using dynamic resilience. Two types of hazardous events were considered: a severe flood event and an earthquake. Given that one or both hazards have occurred and considering the intensity of those events, the main characteristics of flood
 dynamic resilience were evaluated. The framework utilizes an artificial neural network (ANN) to estimate dynamic resilience. The ANN was trained using a large, generated dataset that included a wide range of situations, from relatively mild hazards to severe ones. A case study was performed on the Pirot water system (Serbia). Dynamic resilience was derived from the developed system dynamics model alongside the hazardous models implemented. The most extreme hazard combination results in the robustness of 0.04, indicating a combination of an earthquake with a significant magnitude and a flood hydrograph with a low frequency of occurrence. In the case of moderate hazards, the system robustness has a median value of 0.2 and the rapidity median value of 162 h. The ANN’s efficacy was quantified using the average relative error metric which equals 2.14% and 1.77% for robustness and rapidity, respectively.",
publisher = "IWA Publishing",
journal = "Journal of Hydroinformatics",
title = "Assessment of water resources system resilience under hazardous events using system dynamic approach and artificial neural networks",
doi = "10.2166/hydro.2023.069"
}

Stojković, M., Marjanović, D., Rakić, D., Ivetić, D., Simić, V., Milivojević, N.,& Trajković, S.. (2023). Assessment of water resources system resilience under hazardous events using system dynamic approach and artificial neural networks. in Journal of Hydroinformatics
IWA Publishing..
https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2023.069

Stojković M, Marjanović D, Rakić D, Ivetić D, Simić V, Milivojević N, Trajković S. Assessment of water resources system resilience under hazardous events using system dynamic approach and artificial neural networks. in Journal of Hydroinformatics. 2023;.
doi:10.2166/hydro.2023.069 .

Stojković, Milan, Marjanović, Dušan, Rakić, Dragan, Ivetić, Damjan, Simić, Višnja, Milivojević, Nikola, Trajković, Slaviša, "Assessment of water resources system resilience under hazardous events using system dynamic approach and artificial neural networks" in Journal of Hydroinformatics (2023),
https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2023.069 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Šotić, Aleksandar
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2835
AB  - Akumulacije kao složeni vodoprivredni sistemi predstavljaju ključne infrastrukturne elemente, neophodne za pouzdano upravljanje vodnim resursima. Poslednjih godina, ovi sistemi su izloženi sve nepovoljnijim prirodnim i antropogenim uticajima (dotrajala i zasterala infrastruktura, prirodne nepogode, globalne krize, ektremni hidrološki događaji itd.). Na ovaj način, dodatan pritisak se nameće odgovornim operaterima, koji moraju da upravljaju akumulacijama u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima, koji se nalaze izvan projektnih okvira. Jedan od mogućih pristupa za 
podršku donosiocima odluka je upotrebna simulacionih alata za modeliranje različitih „Šta ako?“ scenarija. Posebno se izdvaja upotreba modela dinamike sistema, koji su pokazali kapacitet da adekvatno predstave kompleksnost ovakvih sistema. U ovom radu je predstavljen okvir, ili okvirna metodologija, od 11 koraka, za dinamičko modeliranje rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima. Okvir obuhvata celine kao što su: formiranje modela sistema, generisanje ulaznih scenarija, simuliranje rada sistema i evaluacija performansi. Fokus je na koracima koji pokrivaju konceptualnu dekompoziciju akumulacija kao složenih sistema, identifikaciju indikatora otkaza, 
definisanje i implementaciju funkcija otkaza u modele dinamike podsistema i dinamičko modeliranje otkaza. Kroz ove korake, predstavljen je nov pristup za dinamičko modeliranje otkaza (parcijalnih ili potpunih) akumulacije kao celine i/ili odgovarajućih podsistema, 
koji se neretko javljaju u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima. Za svaki podsistem koji je sklon otkazu, definiše se indikator otkaza. Funkcije otkaza, koje koriste generičke indikatore funkcionalnosti čija vrednost može biti u opsegu od 0 do 1, modifikuju vrednost indikatora otkaza tokom simulacija, modelirajući uticaj otkaza komponenata/podsistema na rad akumulacije. Primer akumulacije Zavoj, odnosno HE Pirot, je iskorišćen da bi se ilustrovale mogućnosti predložene metodologije. Razmatrani su hipotetički slučajevi fizičkih oštećenja na različitim objektima 
brane, porast merne nesigurnosti, nedostatak rezervnih delova za popravku u periodima svetskih kriznih događaja. Rezultati primene su omogućili izvođenje preliminarnih zaključaka o svrsishodnosti analiza rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima.
PB  - Srpsko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje
T2  - Vodoprivreda
T1  - Okvir za dinamičko modeliranje rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima
T1  - Framework for the dynamic modelling of the reservoir operation in adverse operating conditions
VL  - 54
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2835
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Ivetić, Damjan and Milašinović, Miloš and Stojković, Milan and Šotić, Aleksandar",
year = "2022",
abstract = "Akumulacije kao složeni vodoprivredni sistemi predstavljaju ključne infrastrukturne elemente, neophodne za pouzdano upravljanje vodnim resursima. Poslednjih godina, ovi sistemi su izloženi sve nepovoljnijim prirodnim i antropogenim uticajima (dotrajala i zasterala infrastruktura, prirodne nepogode, globalne krize, ektremni hidrološki događaji itd.). Na ovaj način, dodatan pritisak se nameće odgovornim operaterima, koji moraju da upravljaju akumulacijama u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima, koji se nalaze izvan projektnih okvira. Jedan od mogućih pristupa za 
podršku donosiocima odluka je upotrebna simulacionih alata za modeliranje različitih „Šta ako?“ scenarija. Posebno se izdvaja upotreba modela dinamike sistema, koji su pokazali kapacitet da adekvatno predstave kompleksnost ovakvih sistema. U ovom radu je predstavljen okvir, ili okvirna metodologija, od 11 koraka, za dinamičko modeliranje rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima. Okvir obuhvata celine kao što su: formiranje modela sistema, generisanje ulaznih scenarija, simuliranje rada sistema i evaluacija performansi. Fokus je na koracima koji pokrivaju konceptualnu dekompoziciju akumulacija kao složenih sistema, identifikaciju indikatora otkaza, 
definisanje i implementaciju funkcija otkaza u modele dinamike podsistema i dinamičko modeliranje otkaza. Kroz ove korake, predstavljen je nov pristup za dinamičko modeliranje otkaza (parcijalnih ili potpunih) akumulacije kao celine i/ili odgovarajućih podsistema, 
koji se neretko javljaju u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima. Za svaki podsistem koji je sklon otkazu, definiše se indikator otkaza. Funkcije otkaza, koje koriste generičke indikatore funkcionalnosti čija vrednost može biti u opsegu od 0 do 1, modifikuju vrednost indikatora otkaza tokom simulacija, modelirajući uticaj otkaza komponenata/podsistema na rad akumulacije. Primer akumulacije Zavoj, odnosno HE Pirot, je iskorišćen da bi se ilustrovale mogućnosti predložene metodologije. Razmatrani su hipotetički slučajevi fizičkih oštećenja na različitim objektima 
brane, porast merne nesigurnosti, nedostatak rezervnih delova za popravku u periodima svetskih kriznih događaja. Rezultati primene su omogućili izvođenje preliminarnih zaključaka o svrsishodnosti analiza rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima.",
publisher = "Srpsko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje",
journal = "Vodoprivreda",
title = "Okvir za dinamičko modeliranje rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima, Framework for the dynamic modelling of the reservoir operation in adverse operating conditions",
volume = "54",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2835"
}

Ivetić, D., Milašinović, M., Stojković, M.,& Šotić, A.. (2022). Okvir za dinamičko modeliranje rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima. in Vodoprivreda
Srpsko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje., 54.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2835

Ivetić D, Milašinović M, Stojković M, Šotić A. Okvir za dinamičko modeliranje rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima. in Vodoprivreda. 2022;54.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2835 .

Ivetić, Damjan, Milašinović, Miloš, Stojković, Milan, Šotić, Aleksandar, "Okvir za dinamičko modeliranje rada akumulacija u nepovoljnim operativnim uslovima" in Vodoprivreda, 54 (2022),
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2835 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Šotić, Aleksandar
AU  - Charbonnier, Nicolas
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2673
AB  - Dam and reservoir systems (DRSs) are crucial aspects of the infrastructure necessary for reliable water resource management. Nowadays, DRSs are being increasingly affected by numerous natural and anthropogenic impacts (aging and outdated infrastructure, climate change, natural hazards, global crises, etc.). Hence, additional pressure on DRS management is being applied as DRSs must be operated in adverse operating conditions, outside of their design envelopes. Since there is no practical way to redesign DRSs to meet all possible adverse conditions, efficient simulation tools are necessary for various “what-if” analyses. A system dynamics (SD) approach can be used, as it has shown the capacity to comprehend the intrinsic system complexity. In this paper, an 11-step framework for the dynamic modelling of reduced functionality in a DRS and the emulation of the system operation in adverse conditions is proposed. The framework covers the system model design, input scenario generation, system simulation, and performance evaluation steps. A focus is placed on the steps related to system decomposition, the identification of failure-indicative parameters, the definition and implementation of failure functions in the subsystem dynamic models, and dynamic failure modelling. Through these steps, a novel procedure is proposed for the dynamic modelling of the DRS subsystems’ failures (reduced functionality), common in the operation of DRSs under adverse conditions. For each subsystem prone to failure, failure-indicative parameters are identified. Failure functions employing generic functionality indicators, with values spanning from 0 to 1, are suggested to modify the values of the failure-indicative parameters in simulations and emulate the component failure impacts on DRS operation. Possibilities for modelling failure modes for different subsystems, varying in nature, duration, and magnitude are discussed. Potential physical damage to the system components, increases in measurement uncertainty, and the lack of the spare parts during periods of global crisis are applied as disturbances to the Pirot DRS case study to illustrate the possibilities of the suggested framework’s application for DRS failure modelling. It was concluded that the proposed framework allowed for the detection of severe impacts on system performance, emphasizing the need for DRS dynamic failure modelling in system analysis.
PB  - MDPI
T2  - Water MDPI
T1  - Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions
VL  - 14(10)
DO  - 10.3390/w14101549
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Ivetić, Damjan and Milašinović, Miloš and Stojković, Milan and Šotić, Aleksandar and Charbonnier, Nicolas and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2022",
abstract = "Dam and reservoir systems (DRSs) are crucial aspects of the infrastructure necessary for reliable water resource management. Nowadays, DRSs are being increasingly affected by numerous natural and anthropogenic impacts (aging and outdated infrastructure, climate change, natural hazards, global crises, etc.). Hence, additional pressure on DRS management is being applied as DRSs must be operated in adverse operating conditions, outside of their design envelopes. Since there is no practical way to redesign DRSs to meet all possible adverse conditions, efficient simulation tools are necessary for various “what-if” analyses. A system dynamics (SD) approach can be used, as it has shown the capacity to comprehend the intrinsic system complexity. In this paper, an 11-step framework for the dynamic modelling of reduced functionality in a DRS and the emulation of the system operation in adverse conditions is proposed. The framework covers the system model design, input scenario generation, system simulation, and performance evaluation steps. A focus is placed on the steps related to system decomposition, the identification of failure-indicative parameters, the definition and implementation of failure functions in the subsystem dynamic models, and dynamic failure modelling. Through these steps, a novel procedure is proposed for the dynamic modelling of the DRS subsystems’ failures (reduced functionality), common in the operation of DRSs under adverse conditions. For each subsystem prone to failure, failure-indicative parameters are identified. Failure functions employing generic functionality indicators, with values spanning from 0 to 1, are suggested to modify the values of the failure-indicative parameters in simulations and emulate the component failure impacts on DRS operation. Possibilities for modelling failure modes for different subsystems, varying in nature, duration, and magnitude are discussed. Potential physical damage to the system components, increases in measurement uncertainty, and the lack of the spare parts during periods of global crisis are applied as disturbances to the Pirot DRS case study to illustrate the possibilities of the suggested framework’s application for DRS failure modelling. It was concluded that the proposed framework allowed for the detection of severe impacts on system performance, emphasizing the need for DRS dynamic failure modelling in system analysis.",
publisher = "MDPI",
journal = "Water MDPI",
title = "Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions",
volume = "14(10)",
doi = "10.3390/w14101549"
}

Ivetić, D., Milašinović, M., Stojković, M., Šotić, A., Charbonnier, N.,& Milivojević, N.. (2022). Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions. in Water MDPI
MDPI., 14(10).
https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101549

Ivetić D, Milašinović M, Stojković M, Šotić A, Charbonnier N, Milivojević N. Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions. in Water MDPI. 2022;14(10).
doi:10.3390/w14101549 .

Ivetić, Damjan, Milašinović, Miloš, Stojković, Milan, Šotić, Aleksandar, Charbonnier, Nicolas, Milivojević, Nikola, "Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions" in Water MDPI, 14(10) (2022),
https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101549 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Rakić, Dragan
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Živković, Miroslav
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2672
AB  - The paper presents a functionality investigation of the key dam elements based on finite element analysis. A detailed analysis of filtration processes, dam strength, and the surrounding rock mass was conducted. Dam elements whose potential damage could jeopardize the normal functioning of the embankment dam have been identified. A particular emphasis was placed on the analysis of dam elements that have been identified as weak points. A numerical analysis of the impact of individual grout curtain zone failure on leakage under the dam body, a strength analysis of the overflow section, as well as the analysis of the slope stability that can compromise the functioning of the spillway have been performed. To analyze the partial stability of individual structural elements, a new measure of local stability was introduced as the remaining load-bearing capacity. As a case study, the Zavoj dam, which is a part of the Pirot reservoir system in the Republic of Serbia, was used. Investigation revealed that local damage to the grout curtain will not significantly increase leakage under the dam body, the overflow section is one of the most robust elements of the dam, but the slope above the spillway can compromise the functioning of the overflow and thus the safety of the entire dam. Based on the analysis of the results of the remaining load-bearing capacity, the dependence of the spillway capacity on earthquake intensity has been defined. The established relationship represents a surrogate model for further assessment of dynamic resilience of the complex multipurpose reservoir system, within the scope of the advanced reservoir system management.
PB  - MDPI
T2  - Applied sciences MDPI
T1  - Failure Assessment of Embankment Dam Elements: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System
VL  - 12(2)
DO  - 10.3390/app12020558
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Rakić, Dragan and Stojković, Milan and Ivetić, Damjan and Živković, Miroslav and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2022",
abstract = "The paper presents a functionality investigation of the key dam elements based on finite element analysis. A detailed analysis of filtration processes, dam strength, and the surrounding rock mass was conducted. Dam elements whose potential damage could jeopardize the normal functioning of the embankment dam have been identified. A particular emphasis was placed on the analysis of dam elements that have been identified as weak points. A numerical analysis of the impact of individual grout curtain zone failure on leakage under the dam body, a strength analysis of the overflow section, as well as the analysis of the slope stability that can compromise the functioning of the spillway have been performed. To analyze the partial stability of individual structural elements, a new measure of local stability was introduced as the remaining load-bearing capacity. As a case study, the Zavoj dam, which is a part of the Pirot reservoir system in the Republic of Serbia, was used. Investigation revealed that local damage to the grout curtain will not significantly increase leakage under the dam body, the overflow section is one of the most robust elements of the dam, but the slope above the spillway can compromise the functioning of the overflow and thus the safety of the entire dam. Based on the analysis of the results of the remaining load-bearing capacity, the dependence of the spillway capacity on earthquake intensity has been defined. The established relationship represents a surrogate model for further assessment of dynamic resilience of the complex multipurpose reservoir system, within the scope of the advanced reservoir system management.",
publisher = "MDPI",
journal = "Applied sciences MDPI",
title = "Failure Assessment of Embankment Dam Elements: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System",
volume = "12(2)",
doi = "10.3390/app12020558"
}

Rakić, D., Stojković, M., Ivetić, D., Živković, M.,& Milivojević, N.. (2022). Failure Assessment of Embankment Dam Elements: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System. in Applied sciences MDPI
MDPI., 12(2).
https://doi.org/10.3390/app12020558

Rakić D, Stojković M, Ivetić D, Živković M, Milivojević N. Failure Assessment of Embankment Dam Elements: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System. in Applied sciences MDPI. 2022;12(2).
doi:10.3390/app12020558 .

Rakić, Dragan, Stojković, Milan, Ivetić, Damjan, Živković, Miroslav, Milivojević, Nikola, "Failure Assessment of Embankment Dam Elements: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System" in Applied sciences MDPI, 12(2) (2022),
https://doi.org/10.3390/app12020558 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ignjatović, Lazar
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2021
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2454
AB  - The objective of this research is to introduce a novel framework to quantify the risk of
the reservoir system outside the design envelope, taking into account the risks related to floodprotection and hydro-energy generation under unfavourable reservoir element conditions (system
element failures) and hazardous situations within the environment (flood event). To analyze water
system behavior in adverse conditions, a system analysis approach is used, which is founded
upon the system dynamics model with a causal loop. The capability of the system in performing
the intended functionality can be quantified using the traditional static measures like reliability,
resilience and vulnerability, or dynamic resilience. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment
of a multi-parameter dynamic resilience is introduced. The multi-parameter dynamic resilience
envelops the hydropower and flood-protection resilience, as two opposing demands in the reservoir
operation regime. A case study of a Pirot reservoir, in the Republic of Serbia, is used. To estimate
the multi -parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system, a hydrological model, and a
system dynamic simulation model with an inner control loop, is developed. The inner control loop
provides the relation between the hydropower generation and flood-protection. The hydrological
model is calibrated and generated climate inputs are used to simulate the long-term flow sequences.
The most severe flood event period is extracted to be used as the input for the system dynamics
simulations. The system performance for five different scenarios with various multi failure events
(e.g., generator failure, segment gate failure on the spillway, leakage from reservoir and water supply
tunnel failure due to earthquake) are presented using the novel concept of the explicit modeling of the
component failures through element functionality indicators. Based on the outputs from the system
dynamics model, system performance is determined and, later, hydropower and flood protection
resilience. Then, multi-parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system is estimated and
compared with the traditional static measures (reliability). Discrepancy between the drop between
multi-parameter resilience (from 0.851 to 0.935) and reliability (from 0.993 to 1) shows that static
measure underestimates the risk to the water system. Thus, the results from this research show that
multi-parameter dynamic resilience, as an indicator, can provide additional insight compared to the
traditional static measures, leading to identification of the vulnerable elements of a complex reservoir system. Additionally, it is shown that the proposed explicit modeling of system components failure
can be used to reflect the drop of the overall system functionality
PB  - MDPI
T2  - Water
T1  - Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System
IS  - 22
VL  - 13
DO  - 10.3390/w13223157
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Ignjatović, Lazar and Stojković, Milan and Ivetić, Damjan and Milašinović, Miloš and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2021",
abstract = "The objective of this research is to introduce a novel framework to quantify the risk of
the reservoir system outside the design envelope, taking into account the risks related to floodprotection and hydro-energy generation under unfavourable reservoir element conditions (system
element failures) and hazardous situations within the environment (flood event). To analyze water
system behavior in adverse conditions, a system analysis approach is used, which is founded
upon the system dynamics model with a causal loop. The capability of the system in performing
the intended functionality can be quantified using the traditional static measures like reliability,
resilience and vulnerability, or dynamic resilience. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment
of a multi-parameter dynamic resilience is introduced. The multi-parameter dynamic resilience
envelops the hydropower and flood-protection resilience, as two opposing demands in the reservoir
operation regime. A case study of a Pirot reservoir, in the Republic of Serbia, is used. To estimate
the multi -parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system, a hydrological model, and a
system dynamic simulation model with an inner control loop, is developed. The inner control loop
provides the relation between the hydropower generation and flood-protection. The hydrological
model is calibrated and generated climate inputs are used to simulate the long-term flow sequences.
The most severe flood event period is extracted to be used as the input for the system dynamics
simulations. The system performance for five different scenarios with various multi failure events
(e.g., generator failure, segment gate failure on the spillway, leakage from reservoir and water supply
tunnel failure due to earthquake) are presented using the novel concept of the explicit modeling of the
component failures through element functionality indicators. Based on the outputs from the system
dynamics model, system performance is determined and, later, hydropower and flood protection
resilience. Then, multi-parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system is estimated and
compared with the traditional static measures (reliability). Discrepancy between the drop between
multi-parameter resilience (from 0.851 to 0.935) and reliability (from 0.993 to 1) shows that static
measure underestimates the risk to the water system. Thus, the results from this research show that
multi-parameter dynamic resilience, as an indicator, can provide additional insight compared to the
traditional static measures, leading to identification of the vulnerable elements of a complex reservoir system. Additionally, it is shown that the proposed explicit modeling of system components failure
can be used to reflect the drop of the overall system functionality",
publisher = "MDPI",
journal = "Water",
title = "Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System",
number = "22",
volume = "13",
doi = "10.3390/w13223157"
}

Ignjatović, L., Stojković, M., Ivetić, D., Milašinović, M.,& Milivojević, N.. (2021). Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System. in Water
MDPI., 13(22).
https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223157

Ignjatović L, Stojković M, Ivetić D, Milašinović M, Milivojević N. Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System. in Water. 2021;13(22).
doi:10.3390/w13223157 .

Ignjatović, Lazar, Stojković, Milan, Ivetić, Damjan, Milašinović, Miloš, Milivojević, Nikola, "Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System" in Water, 13, no. 22 (2021),
https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223157 . .

TY  - CONF
AU  - Stojadinović, Luka
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Ignjatović, Lazar
AU  - Stojković, Milan
PY  - 2021
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2459
AB  - Održivo upravljanje složenim vodoprivrednim sistemima, u neizvesnim i promenljivim klimatskim uslovima, kao i pod rastućim socio-ekonomskim zahtevima i ograničenjima, predstavlja kompleksan izazov. Samo u poslednjih par decenija, zabeležene su katastrofalne prirodne nepogode (poplave, suše, zemlotresi itd) koje su po intezitetu prevazilazile dosad zabeležene vrednosti. Vodoprivredni sistemi, kao što su višenamenske akumulacije, predstavljaju jedan primer vitalnih sistema čije je pouzdano funkcionisanje dodatno ugroženo u svetlu novih okolnosti. Kvantifikovanje „spremnosti“ sistema na navedene događaje, se uobičajeno sprovodi kroz analizu rizika primenom tradicionalnih statičkih veličina. Kako statičke mere imaju izvesna ograničenja, u poslednje vreme, sve više se koristi koncept dinamičke rezilijentnosti (izdržljivosti). Kako bi se obezbedila minimizacija štetnog uticaja navedenih događaja na funkcionalnost vodoprivrednih sistema, neophodno je povećati tzv. „rezilijentnost“ sistema, odnosno sposobnost sistema da izdrži i prihvati neki poremećaj i povrati pređašnju funkcionalnost. Kako bi se ispitala „spremnost“ sistema na razne nepovoljne scenarije, koji podrazumevaju smanjenje funkcionalnosti različitih komponenata sistema, neophodno je koristiti adekvatan simulacioni model vodoprivrednog sistema i model otkaza. Na osnovu ovih modela moguće je proceniti ponašanje sistema nakon širokog spektra mogućih nepovoljnih događaja. Takođe, moguće je detektovati komponente koje bi uz pravovremeno ulaganje i poboljšanje stanja ublažile pad funkcionalnosti sistema pri različitim poremećajima i povećale rezilijentnost celog sistema. U ovom istraživanju predstavljen je pristup za modeliranje otkaza i implementaciju istih u vodoprivredni model. Kao primer korišćen je vodoprivredni sistem Pirot.
C3  - 19. Savetovanje SDHI i SDH, Beograd, Srbija
T1  - Dinamička rezilijentnost kao mera za upravljanje rizikom kod složenih vodoprivrednih sistema: Implementacija modela otkaza u vodoprivredni model
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2459
ER  - 

@conference{
author = "Stojadinović, Luka and Ivetić, Damjan and Milašinović, Miloš and Ignjatović, Lazar and Stojković, Milan",
year = "2021",
abstract = "Održivo upravljanje složenim vodoprivrednim sistemima, u neizvesnim i promenljivim klimatskim uslovima, kao i pod rastućim socio-ekonomskim zahtevima i ograničenjima, predstavlja kompleksan izazov. Samo u poslednjih par decenija, zabeležene su katastrofalne prirodne nepogode (poplave, suše, zemlotresi itd) koje su po intezitetu prevazilazile dosad zabeležene vrednosti. Vodoprivredni sistemi, kao što su višenamenske akumulacije, predstavljaju jedan primer vitalnih sistema čije je pouzdano funkcionisanje dodatno ugroženo u svetlu novih okolnosti. Kvantifikovanje „spremnosti“ sistema na navedene događaje, se uobičajeno sprovodi kroz analizu rizika primenom tradicionalnih statičkih veličina. Kako statičke mere imaju izvesna ograničenja, u poslednje vreme, sve više se koristi koncept dinamičke rezilijentnosti (izdržljivosti). Kako bi se obezbedila minimizacija štetnog uticaja navedenih događaja na funkcionalnost vodoprivrednih sistema, neophodno je povećati tzv. „rezilijentnost“ sistema, odnosno sposobnost sistema da izdrži i prihvati neki poremećaj i povrati pređašnju funkcionalnost. Kako bi se ispitala „spremnost“ sistema na razne nepovoljne scenarije, koji podrazumevaju smanjenje funkcionalnosti različitih komponenata sistema, neophodno je koristiti adekvatan simulacioni model vodoprivrednog sistema i model otkaza. Na osnovu ovih modela moguće je proceniti ponašanje sistema nakon širokog spektra mogućih nepovoljnih događaja. Takođe, moguće je detektovati komponente koje bi uz pravovremeno ulaganje i poboljšanje stanja ublažile pad funkcionalnosti sistema pri različitim poremećajima i povećale rezilijentnost celog sistema. U ovom istraživanju predstavljen je pristup za modeliranje otkaza i implementaciju istih u vodoprivredni model. Kao primer korišćen je vodoprivredni sistem Pirot.",
journal = "19. Savetovanje SDHI i SDH, Beograd, Srbija",
title = "Dinamička rezilijentnost kao mera za upravljanje rizikom kod složenih vodoprivrednih sistema: Implementacija modela otkaza u vodoprivredni model",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2459"
}

Stojadinović, L., Ivetić, D., Milašinović, M., Ignjatović, L.,& Stojković, M.. (2021). Dinamička rezilijentnost kao mera za upravljanje rizikom kod složenih vodoprivrednih sistema: Implementacija modela otkaza u vodoprivredni model. in 19. Savetovanje SDHI i SDH, Beograd, Srbija.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2459

Stojadinović L, Ivetić D, Milašinović M, Ignjatović L, Stojković M. Dinamička rezilijentnost kao mera za upravljanje rizikom kod složenih vodoprivrednih sistema: Implementacija modela otkaza u vodoprivredni model. in 19. Savetovanje SDHI i SDH, Beograd, Srbija. 2021;.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2459 .

Stojadinović, Luka, Ivetić, Damjan, Milašinović, Miloš, Ignjatović, Lazar, Stojković, Milan, "Dinamička rezilijentnost kao mera za upravljanje rizikom kod složenih vodoprivrednih sistema: Implementacija modela otkaza u vodoprivredni model" in 19. Savetovanje SDHI i SDH, Beograd, Srbija (2021),
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2459 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ignjatović, Lazar
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2021
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2671
AB  - The objective of this research is to introduce a novel framework to quantify the risk of the reservoir system outside the design envelope, taking into account the risks related to flood-protection and hydro-energy generation under unfavourable reservoir element conditions (system element failures) and hazardous situations within the environment (flood event). To analyze water system behavior in adverse conditions, a system analysis approach is used, which is founded upon the system dynamics model with a causal loop. The capability of the system in performing the intended functionality can be quantified using the traditional static measures like reliability, resilience and vulnerability, or dynamic resilience. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment of a multi-parameter dynamic resilience is introduced. The multi-parameter dynamic resilience envelops the hydropower and flood-protection resilience, as two opposing demands in the reservoir operation regime. A case study of a Pirot reservoir, in the Republic of Serbia, is used. To estimate the multi -parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system, a hydrological model, and a system dynamic simulation model with an inner control loop, is developed. The inner control loop provides the relation between the hydropower generation and flood-protection. The hydrological model is calibrated and generated climate inputs are used to simulate the long-term flow sequences. The most severe flood event period is extracted to be used as the input for the system dynamics simulations. The system performance for five different scenarios with various multi failure events (e.g., generator failure, segment gate failure on the spillway, leakage from reservoir and water supply tunnel failure due to earthquake) are presented using the novel concept of the explicit modeling of the component failures through element functionality indicators. Based on the outputs from the system dynamics model, system performance is determined and, later, hydropower and flood protection resilience. Then, multi-parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system is estimated and compared with the traditional static measures (reliability). Discrepancy between the drop between multi-parameter resilience (from 0.851 to 0.935) and reliability (from 0.993 to 1) shows that static measure underestimates the risk to the water system. Thus, the results from this research show that multi-parameter dynamic resilience, as an indicator, can provide additional insight compared to the traditional static measures, leading to identification of the vulnerable elements of a complex reservoir system. Additionally, it is shown that the proposed explicit modeling of system components failure can be used to reflect the drop of the overall system functionality.
PB  - MDPI
T2  - Water MDPI
T1  - Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System
VL  - 13(22)
DO  - 10.3390/w13223157
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Ignjatović, Lazar and Stojković, Milan and Ivetić, Damjan and Milašinović, Miloš and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2021",
abstract = "The objective of this research is to introduce a novel framework to quantify the risk of the reservoir system outside the design envelope, taking into account the risks related to flood-protection and hydro-energy generation under unfavourable reservoir element conditions (system element failures) and hazardous situations within the environment (flood event). To analyze water system behavior in adverse conditions, a system analysis approach is used, which is founded upon the system dynamics model with a causal loop. The capability of the system in performing the intended functionality can be quantified using the traditional static measures like reliability, resilience and vulnerability, or dynamic resilience. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment of a multi-parameter dynamic resilience is introduced. The multi-parameter dynamic resilience envelops the hydropower and flood-protection resilience, as two opposing demands in the reservoir operation regime. A case study of a Pirot reservoir, in the Republic of Serbia, is used. To estimate the multi -parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system, a hydrological model, and a system dynamic simulation model with an inner control loop, is developed. The inner control loop provides the relation between the hydropower generation and flood-protection. The hydrological model is calibrated and generated climate inputs are used to simulate the long-term flow sequences. The most severe flood event period is extracted to be used as the input for the system dynamics simulations. The system performance for five different scenarios with various multi failure events (e.g., generator failure, segment gate failure on the spillway, leakage from reservoir and water supply tunnel failure due to earthquake) are presented using the novel concept of the explicit modeling of the component failures through element functionality indicators. Based on the outputs from the system dynamics model, system performance is determined and, later, hydropower and flood protection resilience. Then, multi-parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system is estimated and compared with the traditional static measures (reliability). Discrepancy between the drop between multi-parameter resilience (from 0.851 to 0.935) and reliability (from 0.993 to 1) shows that static measure underestimates the risk to the water system. Thus, the results from this research show that multi-parameter dynamic resilience, as an indicator, can provide additional insight compared to the traditional static measures, leading to identification of the vulnerable elements of a complex reservoir system. Additionally, it is shown that the proposed explicit modeling of system components failure can be used to reflect the drop of the overall system functionality.",
publisher = "MDPI",
journal = "Water MDPI",
title = "Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System",
volume = "13(22)",
doi = "10.3390/w13223157"
}

Ignjatović, L., Stojković, M., Ivetić, D., Milašinović, M.,& Milivojević, N.. (2021). Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System. in Water MDPI
MDPI., 13(22).
https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223157

Ignjatović L, Stojković M, Ivetić D, Milašinović M, Milivojević N. Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System. in Water MDPI. 2021;13(22).
doi:10.3390/w13223157 .

Ignjatović, Lazar, Stojković, Milan, Ivetić, Damjan, Milašinović, Miloš, Milivojević, Nikola, "Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System" in Water MDPI, 13(22) (2021),
https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223157 . .

TY  - CONF
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Miloš, Milašinović
AU  - Lazar, Ignjatović
AU  - Luka, Stojadinović
PY  - 2021
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2458
AB  - To manage impacts of natural disasters we propose the use of system approach to enhance the predictive power in resilience assessment of water system beyond the largest recorded events. The main objective of the proposed research is the development of a modelling framework for dynamic resilience assessment. The traditional risk-based approach and use of standards is replaced with a quantitative assessment of the dynamic resilience. By developing a novel framework, the research therefore makes a context introducing a dynamic resilience as a measure for risk assessment. In this context, the research will provide the generic methodology and tools for dynamic resilience assessment. This framework offers an opportunity for highlighting the role of using multi-model simulations which supports the estimation of dynamic resilience. It underpins investment decisions within the different sectors (e.g. water, hydroenergy, environmental sectors) for adaptation schemes under the uncertain changes in our environment (e.g. variable climate, natural disasters).
C3  - 19. Savetovanje SDHI i SDH, Beograd, Srbija
T1  - Dynamics resilience as a measure for risk assessment of the complex water systems: Project overview
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2458
ER  - 

@conference{
author = "Stojković, Milan and Ivetić, Damjan and Miloš, Milašinović and Lazar, Ignjatović and Luka, Stojadinović",
year = "2021",
abstract = "To manage impacts of natural disasters we propose the use of system approach to enhance the predictive power in resilience assessment of water system beyond the largest recorded events. The main objective of the proposed research is the development of a modelling framework for dynamic resilience assessment. The traditional risk-based approach and use of standards is replaced with a quantitative assessment of the dynamic resilience. By developing a novel framework, the research therefore makes a context introducing a dynamic resilience as a measure for risk assessment. In this context, the research will provide the generic methodology and tools for dynamic resilience assessment. This framework offers an opportunity for highlighting the role of using multi-model simulations which supports the estimation of dynamic resilience. It underpins investment decisions within the different sectors (e.g. water, hydroenergy, environmental sectors) for adaptation schemes under the uncertain changes in our environment (e.g. variable climate, natural disasters).",
journal = "19. Savetovanje SDHI i SDH, Beograd, Srbija",
title = "Dynamics resilience as a measure for risk assessment of the complex water systems: Project overview",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2458"
}

Stojković, M., Ivetić, D., Miloš, M., Lazar, I.,& Luka, S.. (2021). Dynamics resilience as a measure for risk assessment of the complex water systems: Project overview. in 19. Savetovanje SDHI i SDH, Beograd, Srbija.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2458

Stojković M, Ivetić D, Miloš M, Lazar I, Luka S. Dynamics resilience as a measure for risk assessment of the complex water systems: Project overview. in 19. Savetovanje SDHI i SDH, Beograd, Srbija. 2021;.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2458 .

Stojković, Milan, Ivetić, Damjan, Miloš, Milašinović, Lazar, Ignjatović, Luka, Stojadinović, "Dynamics resilience as a measure for risk assessment of the complex water systems: Project overview" in 19. Savetovanje SDHI i SDH, Beograd, Srbija (2021),
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2458 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Stojković, MIlan
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
AU  - Prohaska, Stevan
AU  - Pavlović, Dragutin
AU  - Despotović, Jovan
PY  - 2019
UR  - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1823
AB  - Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in Southeast Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the climate changes impact on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The last one is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950-2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the RCP emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013-2070.
PB  - Taylor & Francis
T2  - Hydrological Sciences Journal
T1  - A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)
DO  - 10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Stojković, MIlan and Plavšić, Jasna and Prohaska, Stevan and Pavlović, Dragutin and Despotović, Jovan",
year = "2019",
abstract = "Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in Southeast Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the climate changes impact on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The last one is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950-2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the RCP emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013-2070.",
publisher = "Taylor & Francis",
journal = "Hydrological Sciences Journal",
title = "A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)",
doi = "10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241"
}

Stojković, M., Plavšić, J., Prohaska, S., Pavlović, D.,& Despotović, J.. (2019). A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe). in Hydrological Sciences Journal
Taylor & Francis..
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241

Stojković M, Plavšić J, Prohaska S, Pavlović D, Despotović J. A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe). in Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2019;.
doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241 .

Stojković, MIlan, Plavšić, Jasna, Prohaska, Stevan, Pavlović, Dragutin, Despotović, Jovan, "A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)" in Hydrological Sciences Journal (2019),
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Kostić, Srđan
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
AU  - Prohaska, Stevan
PY  - 2017
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/855
AB  - The authors present a detailed procedure for modelling of mean monthly flow time-series using records of the Great Morava River (Serbia). The proposed procedure overcomes a major challenge of other available methods by disaggregating the time series in order to capture the main properties of the hydrologic process in both long-run and short-run, The main assumption of the conducted research is that a time series of monthly flow rates represents a stochastic process comprised of deterministic, stochastic and random components, the former of which can be further decomposed into a composite trend and two periodic components (short-term or seasonal periodicity and long-term or multi-annual periodicity). In the present paper, the deterministic component of a monthly flow time-series is assessed by spectral analysis, whereas its stochastic component is modelled using cross-correlation transfer functions, artificial neural networks and polynomial regression. The results suggest that the deterministic component can be expressed solely as a function of time, whereas the stochastic component changes as a nonlinear function of climatic factors (rainfall and temperature). For the calibration period, the results of the analysis infers a lower value of Kling-Gupta Efficiency in the case of transfer functions (0.736), whereas artificial neural networks and polynomial regression suggest a significantly better match between the observed and simulated values, 0.841 and 0.891, respectively. It seems that transfer functions fail to capture high monthly flow rates, whereas the model based on polynomial regression reproduces high monthly flows much better because it is able to successfully capture a highly nonlinear relationship between the inputs and the output. The proposed methodology that uses a combination of artificial neural networks, spectral analysis and polynomial regression for deterministic and stochastic components can be applied to forecast monthly or seasonal flow rates.
PB  - Elsevier B.V.
T2  - Journal of Hydrology
T1  - A joint stochastic-deterministic approach for long-term and short-term modelling of monthly flow rates
EP  - 566
SP  - 555
VL  - 544
DO  - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.025
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Stojković, Milan and Kostić, Srđan and Plavšić, Jasna and Prohaska, Stevan",
year = "2017",
abstract = "The authors present a detailed procedure for modelling of mean monthly flow time-series using records of the Great Morava River (Serbia). The proposed procedure overcomes a major challenge of other available methods by disaggregating the time series in order to capture the main properties of the hydrologic process in both long-run and short-run, The main assumption of the conducted research is that a time series of monthly flow rates represents a stochastic process comprised of deterministic, stochastic and random components, the former of which can be further decomposed into a composite trend and two periodic components (short-term or seasonal periodicity and long-term or multi-annual periodicity). In the present paper, the deterministic component of a monthly flow time-series is assessed by spectral analysis, whereas its stochastic component is modelled using cross-correlation transfer functions, artificial neural networks and polynomial regression. The results suggest that the deterministic component can be expressed solely as a function of time, whereas the stochastic component changes as a nonlinear function of climatic factors (rainfall and temperature). For the calibration period, the results of the analysis infers a lower value of Kling-Gupta Efficiency in the case of transfer functions (0.736), whereas artificial neural networks and polynomial regression suggest a significantly better match between the observed and simulated values, 0.841 and 0.891, respectively. It seems that transfer functions fail to capture high monthly flow rates, whereas the model based on polynomial regression reproduces high monthly flows much better because it is able to successfully capture a highly nonlinear relationship between the inputs and the output. The proposed methodology that uses a combination of artificial neural networks, spectral analysis and polynomial regression for deterministic and stochastic components can be applied to forecast monthly or seasonal flow rates.",
publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",
journal = "Journal of Hydrology",
title = "A joint stochastic-deterministic approach for long-term and short-term modelling of monthly flow rates",
pages = "566-555",
volume = "544",
doi = "10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.025"
}

Stojković, M., Kostić, S., Plavšić, J.,& Prohaska, S.. (2017). A joint stochastic-deterministic approach for long-term and short-term modelling of monthly flow rates. in Journal of Hydrology
Elsevier B.V.., 544, 555-566.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.025

Stojković M, Kostić S, Plavšić J, Prohaska S. A joint stochastic-deterministic approach for long-term and short-term modelling of monthly flow rates. in Journal of Hydrology. 2017;544:555-566.
doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.025 .

Stojković, Milan, Kostić, Srđan, Plavšić, Jasna, Prohaska, Stevan, "A joint stochastic-deterministic approach for long-term and short-term modelling of monthly flow rates" in Journal of Hydrology, 544 (2017):555-566,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.025 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Kostić, Srđan
AU  - Prohaska, Stevan
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
AU  - Tripković, Vesna
PY  - 2017
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/835
AB  - The authors propose a new approach for trend assessment that takes into account long-term periodicity of annual flows. In particular, analysis is performed of annual flows recorded at the locations of 30 operating and designed hydropower plants (HPPs) in Serbia, in order to assess the current and future water availability for hydropower generation. The composite annual trend is determined by sliding a fixed time window of 30 years along the observed time series with a one-year time step. Such a linear moving window (LMW) approach enables the identification of the flow trend as a median of all values for each time step. Significant trend harmonics are determined using discrete spectral analysis. The results show an alternation of upward and downward trend phases of different durations, namely: 6787, 33-43 and 21-29 years. On the other hand, the results of the Mann-Kendall test indicate a monotonic downward trend at the studied sites in the Drina River Basin, while statistically insignificant trends are noted at other river basins. The Mann-Kendall test with the Theil-Sen estimator also implies a downward and statistically insignificant flow trend after the observed period, whereas the LMW approach indicates a probable trend increase at all the examined sites. The proposed approach can be used to predict annual flows in order to establish long-term water management plans at hydropower plants.
PB  - Springer Netherlands
T2  - Water Resources Management
T1  - A New Approach for Trend Assessment of Annual Streamflows: a Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Serbia
EP  - 1103
IS  - 4
SP  - 1089
VL  - 31
DO  - 10.1007/s11269-017-1583-z
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Stojković, Milan and Kostić, Srđan and Prohaska, Stevan and Plavšić, Jasna and Tripković, Vesna",
year = "2017",
abstract = "The authors propose a new approach for trend assessment that takes into account long-term periodicity of annual flows. In particular, analysis is performed of annual flows recorded at the locations of 30 operating and designed hydropower plants (HPPs) in Serbia, in order to assess the current and future water availability for hydropower generation. The composite annual trend is determined by sliding a fixed time window of 30 years along the observed time series with a one-year time step. Such a linear moving window (LMW) approach enables the identification of the flow trend as a median of all values for each time step. Significant trend harmonics are determined using discrete spectral analysis. The results show an alternation of upward and downward trend phases of different durations, namely: 6787, 33-43 and 21-29 years. On the other hand, the results of the Mann-Kendall test indicate a monotonic downward trend at the studied sites in the Drina River Basin, while statistically insignificant trends are noted at other river basins. The Mann-Kendall test with the Theil-Sen estimator also implies a downward and statistically insignificant flow trend after the observed period, whereas the LMW approach indicates a probable trend increase at all the examined sites. The proposed approach can be used to predict annual flows in order to establish long-term water management plans at hydropower plants.",
publisher = "Springer Netherlands",
journal = "Water Resources Management",
title = "A New Approach for Trend Assessment of Annual Streamflows: a Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Serbia",
pages = "1103-1089",
number = "4",
volume = "31",
doi = "10.1007/s11269-017-1583-z"
}

Stojković, M., Kostić, S., Prohaska, S., Plavšić, J.,& Tripković, V.. (2017). A New Approach for Trend Assessment of Annual Streamflows: a Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Serbia. in Water Resources Management
Springer Netherlands., 31(4), 1089-1103.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1583-z

Stojković M, Kostić S, Prohaska S, Plavšić J, Tripković V. A New Approach for Trend Assessment of Annual Streamflows: a Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Serbia. in Water Resources Management. 2017;31(4):1089-1103.
doi:10.1007/s11269-017-1583-z .

Stojković, Milan, Kostić, Srđan, Prohaska, Stevan, Plavšić, Jasna, Tripković, Vesna, "A New Approach for Trend Assessment of Annual Streamflows: a Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Serbia" in Water Resources Management, 31, no. 4 (2017):1089-1103,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1583-z . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
AU  - Prohaska, Stevan
PY  - 2017
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/832
AB  - The short-term predictions of annual and seasonal discharge derived by a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity and Stochasticity) methodology are presented in this paper. The TIPS method (Yevjevich, 1984) is modified in such a way that annual time scale is used instead of daily. The reason of extracting a seasonal component from discharge time series represents an attempt to identify the long-term stochastic behaviour. The methodology is applied for modelling annual discharges at six gauging stations in the middle Danube River basin using the observed data in the common period from 1931 to 2012. The model performance measures suggest that the modelled time series are matched reasonably well. The model is then used for the short-time predictions for three annual step ahead (2013-2015). The annual discharge predictions of larger river basins for moderate hydrological conditions show reasonable matching with records expressed as the relative error from -8% to +3%. Irrespective of this, wet and dry periods for the aforementioned river basins show significant departures from annual observations. Also, the smaller river basins display greater deviations up to 26% of the observed annual discharges, whereas the accuracy of annual predictions do not strictly depend on the prevailing hydrological conditions.
PB  - De Gruyter Open Ltd
T2  - Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
T1  - Annual and seasonal discharge prediction in the middle Danube River basin based on a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity, Stochasticity) methodology
EP  - 174
IS  - 2
SP  - 165
VL  - 65
DO  - 10.1515/johh-2017-0012
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Stojković, Milan and Plavšić, Jasna and Prohaska, Stevan",
year = "2017",
abstract = "The short-term predictions of annual and seasonal discharge derived by a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity and Stochasticity) methodology are presented in this paper. The TIPS method (Yevjevich, 1984) is modified in such a way that annual time scale is used instead of daily. The reason of extracting a seasonal component from discharge time series represents an attempt to identify the long-term stochastic behaviour. The methodology is applied for modelling annual discharges at six gauging stations in the middle Danube River basin using the observed data in the common period from 1931 to 2012. The model performance measures suggest that the modelled time series are matched reasonably well. The model is then used for the short-time predictions for three annual step ahead (2013-2015). The annual discharge predictions of larger river basins for moderate hydrological conditions show reasonable matching with records expressed as the relative error from -8% to +3%. Irrespective of this, wet and dry periods for the aforementioned river basins show significant departures from annual observations. Also, the smaller river basins display greater deviations up to 26% of the observed annual discharges, whereas the accuracy of annual predictions do not strictly depend on the prevailing hydrological conditions.",
publisher = "De Gruyter Open Ltd",
journal = "Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics",
title = "Annual and seasonal discharge prediction in the middle Danube River basin based on a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity, Stochasticity) methodology",
pages = "174-165",
number = "2",
volume = "65",
doi = "10.1515/johh-2017-0012"
}

Stojković, M., Plavšić, J.,& Prohaska, S.. (2017). Annual and seasonal discharge prediction in the middle Danube River basin based on a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity, Stochasticity) methodology. in Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
De Gruyter Open Ltd., 65(2), 165-174.
https://doi.org/10.1515/johh-2017-0012

Stojković M, Plavšić J, Prohaska S. Annual and seasonal discharge prediction in the middle Danube River basin based on a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity, Stochasticity) methodology. in Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics. 2017;65(2):165-174.
doi:10.1515/johh-2017-0012 .

Stojković, Milan, Plavšić, Jasna, Prohaska, Stevan, "Annual and seasonal discharge prediction in the middle Danube River basin based on a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity, Stochasticity) methodology" in Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 65, no. 2 (2017):165-174,
https://doi.org/10.1515/johh-2017-0012 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Jaćimović, Nenad
PY  - 2016
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/763
AB  - This paper presents one-dimensional numerical model for snowmelt/accumulation simulations, based on the equation of heat energy. It is assumed that the snow column is homogeneous at the current time step; however, its characteristics such as snow density and thermal conductivity are treated as functions of time. The equation of heat energy for snow column is solved using the implicit finite difference method. The incoming energy at the snow surface includes the following parts: conduction, convection, radiation and the raindrop energy. Along with the snow melting process, the model includes a model for snow accumulation. The Euler method for the numerical integration of the balance equation is utilized in the proposed model. The model applicability is demonstrated at the meteorological station Zlatibor, located in the western region of Serbia at 1,028 meters above sea level (m.a.s.l.) Simulation results of snowmelt/accumulation suggest that the proposed model achieved better agreement with observed data in comparison with the temperature index method. The proposed method may be utilized as part of a deterministic hydrological model in order to improve short and long term predictions of possible flood events.
PB  - IWA Publishing
T2  - Water Science and Technology
T1  - A simple numerical method for snowmelt simulation based on the equation of heat energy
EP  - 1559
IS  - 7
SP  - 1550
VL  - 73
DO  - 10.2166/wst.2015.628
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Stojković, Milan and Jaćimović, Nenad",
year = "2016",
abstract = "This paper presents one-dimensional numerical model for snowmelt/accumulation simulations, based on the equation of heat energy. It is assumed that the snow column is homogeneous at the current time step; however, its characteristics such as snow density and thermal conductivity are treated as functions of time. The equation of heat energy for snow column is solved using the implicit finite difference method. The incoming energy at the snow surface includes the following parts: conduction, convection, radiation and the raindrop energy. Along with the snow melting process, the model includes a model for snow accumulation. The Euler method for the numerical integration of the balance equation is utilized in the proposed model. The model applicability is demonstrated at the meteorological station Zlatibor, located in the western region of Serbia at 1,028 meters above sea level (m.a.s.l.) Simulation results of snowmelt/accumulation suggest that the proposed model achieved better agreement with observed data in comparison with the temperature index method. The proposed method may be utilized as part of a deterministic hydrological model in order to improve short and long term predictions of possible flood events.",
publisher = "IWA Publishing",
journal = "Water Science and Technology",
title = "A simple numerical method for snowmelt simulation based on the equation of heat energy",
pages = "1559-1550",
number = "7",
volume = "73",
doi = "10.2166/wst.2015.628"
}

Stojković, M.,& Jaćimović, N.. (2016). A simple numerical method for snowmelt simulation based on the equation of heat energy. in Water Science and Technology
IWA Publishing., 73(7), 1550-1559.
https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2015.628

Stojković M, Jaćimović N. A simple numerical method for snowmelt simulation based on the equation of heat energy. in Water Science and Technology. 2016;73(7):1550-1559.
doi:10.2166/wst.2015.628 .

Stojković, Milan, Jaćimović, Nenad, "A simple numerical method for snowmelt simulation based on the equation of heat energy" in Water Science and Technology, 73, no. 7 (2016):1550-1559,
https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2015.628 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Prohaska, Stevan
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
PY  - 2015
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/702
AB  - Water resource has become a guarantee for sustainable development on both local and global scales. Exploiting water resources involves development of hydrological models for water management planning. In this paper we present a new stochastic model for generation of mean annul flows. The model is based on historical characteristics of time series of annual flows and consists of the trend component, long-term periodic component and stochastic component. The rest of specified components are model errors which are represented as a random time series. The random time series is generated by the single bootstrap model (SBM). Stochastic ensemble of error terms at the single hydrological station is formed using the SBM method. The ultimate stochastic model gives solutions of annual flows and presents a useful tool for integrated river basin planning and water management studies. The model is applied for ten large European rivers with long observed period. Validation of model results suggests that the stochastic flows simulated by the model can be used for hydrological simulations in river basins.
PB  - Versita
T2  - Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
T1  - Stochastic structure of annual discharges of large European rivers
EP  - 70
IS  - 1
SP  - 63
VL  - 63
DO  - 10.1515/johh-2015-0009
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Stojković, Milan and Prohaska, Stevan and Plavšić, Jasna",
year = "2015",
abstract = "Water resource has become a guarantee for sustainable development on both local and global scales. Exploiting water resources involves development of hydrological models for water management planning. In this paper we present a new stochastic model for generation of mean annul flows. The model is based on historical characteristics of time series of annual flows and consists of the trend component, long-term periodic component and stochastic component. The rest of specified components are model errors which are represented as a random time series. The random time series is generated by the single bootstrap model (SBM). Stochastic ensemble of error terms at the single hydrological station is formed using the SBM method. The ultimate stochastic model gives solutions of annual flows and presents a useful tool for integrated river basin planning and water management studies. The model is applied for ten large European rivers with long observed period. Validation of model results suggests that the stochastic flows simulated by the model can be used for hydrological simulations in river basins.",
publisher = "Versita",
journal = "Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics",
title = "Stochastic structure of annual discharges of large European rivers",
pages = "70-63",
number = "1",
volume = "63",
doi = "10.1515/johh-2015-0009"
}

Stojković, M., Prohaska, S.,& Plavšić, J.. (2015). Stochastic structure of annual discharges of large European rivers. in Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
Versita., 63(1), 63-70.
https://doi.org/10.1515/johh-2015-0009

Stojković M, Prohaska S, Plavšić J. Stochastic structure of annual discharges of large European rivers. in Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics. 2015;63(1):63-70.
doi:10.1515/johh-2015-0009 .

Stojković, Milan, Prohaska, Stevan, Plavšić, Jasna, "Stochastic structure of annual discharges of large European rivers" in Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 63, no. 1 (2015):63-70,
https://doi.org/10.1515/johh-2015-0009 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Prohaska, Stevan
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
PY  - 2014
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/642
AB  - The internal structure of hydrologic processes is discussed in the paper. Time series of mean annual river discharges are assessed to determine their stationarity, trend and periodicity. The time series of annual discharges are determined to be non-stationary. The trend varies in different time segments, with changing trend intensity and direction. Hurst analysis shows that the time series of annual discharges have a long memory. Long-term periodicity of annual time series is considered, while macroperiods are determined and classified into four groups of mean values: 9.5, 13.5, 22.5 and 31.5 years. Secondary microperiodicity is found to exist in the interval from 3.6 to 4.9 years.
PB  - Serbian Water Pollution Control Society, Belgrade
T2  - Water research and management
T1  - Internal stochastic structure of annual discharge time series of Serbia’s large rivers
EP  - 13
IS  - 2
SP  - 3
VL  - 4
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_642
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Stojković, Milan and Prohaska, Stevan and Plavšić, Jasna",
year = "2014",
abstract = "The internal structure of hydrologic processes is discussed in the paper. Time series of mean annual river discharges are assessed to determine their stationarity, trend and periodicity. The time series of annual discharges are determined to be non-stationary. The trend varies in different time segments, with changing trend intensity and direction. Hurst analysis shows that the time series of annual discharges have a long memory. Long-term periodicity of annual time series is considered, while macroperiods are determined and classified into four groups of mean values: 9.5, 13.5, 22.5 and 31.5 years. Secondary microperiodicity is found to exist in the interval from 3.6 to 4.9 years.",
publisher = "Serbian Water Pollution Control Society, Belgrade",
journal = "Water research and management",
title = "Internal stochastic structure of annual discharge time series of Serbia’s large rivers",
pages = "13-3",
number = "2",
volume = "4",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_642"
}

Stojković, M., Prohaska, S.,& Plavšić, J.. (2014). Internal stochastic structure of annual discharge time series of Serbia’s large rivers. in Water research and management
Serbian Water Pollution Control Society, Belgrade., 4(2), 3-13.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_642

Stojković M, Prohaska S, Plavšić J. Internal stochastic structure of annual discharge time series of Serbia’s large rivers. in Water research and management. 2014;4(2):3-13.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_642 .

Stojković, Milan, Prohaska, Stevan, Plavšić, Jasna, "Internal stochastic structure of annual discharge time series of Serbia’s large rivers" in Water research and management, 4, no. 2 (2014):3-13,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_642 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Ilić, Aleksandra
AU  - Prohaska, Stevan
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
PY  - 2014
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/601
AB  - Global warming affects the hydrological cycle and the long-term water budget of river basins. Flow variations have been noticed in the Danube River Basin, especially in its south-western parts where a downward trend in mean annual flows has been prevalent in the past several decades. Time series of mean annual and seasonal flows of the Sava River at hydrological stations Sremska Mitrovica and Zagreb are analysed in this paper. The trend is assessed with the Mann-Kendall test including the effect of serial correlation. Additionally, the trends are assessed in the multi-temporal framework. It is concluded that the long-term periodicity of annual flows has a considerable impact on the time series trend. Long-term component with cycles of 40 years in mean annual flows are detected by the time series analysis in frequency domain. Regression analysis showed a significant correlation between mean annual flows of the Sava River and annual precipitation, mean annual atmospheric pressure and air temperatures at meteorological station Ljubljana, as well as with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index.
PB  - Kluwer Academic Publishers
T2  - Water Resources Management
T1  - Multi-Temporal Analysis of Mean Annual and Seasonal Stream Flow Trends, Including Periodicity and Multiple Non-Linear Regression
EP  - 4335
IS  - 12
SP  - 4319
VL  - 28
DO  - 10.1007/s11269-014-0753-5
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Stojković, Milan and Ilić, Aleksandra and Prohaska, Stevan and Plavšić, Jasna",
year = "2014",
abstract = "Global warming affects the hydrological cycle and the long-term water budget of river basins. Flow variations have been noticed in the Danube River Basin, especially in its south-western parts where a downward trend in mean annual flows has been prevalent in the past several decades. Time series of mean annual and seasonal flows of the Sava River at hydrological stations Sremska Mitrovica and Zagreb are analysed in this paper. The trend is assessed with the Mann-Kendall test including the effect of serial correlation. Additionally, the trends are assessed in the multi-temporal framework. It is concluded that the long-term periodicity of annual flows has a considerable impact on the time series trend. Long-term component with cycles of 40 years in mean annual flows are detected by the time series analysis in frequency domain. Regression analysis showed a significant correlation between mean annual flows of the Sava River and annual precipitation, mean annual atmospheric pressure and air temperatures at meteorological station Ljubljana, as well as with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index.",
publisher = "Kluwer Academic Publishers",
journal = "Water Resources Management",
title = "Multi-Temporal Analysis of Mean Annual and Seasonal Stream Flow Trends, Including Periodicity and Multiple Non-Linear Regression",
pages = "4335-4319",
number = "12",
volume = "28",
doi = "10.1007/s11269-014-0753-5"
}

Stojković, M., Ilić, A., Prohaska, S.,& Plavšić, J.. (2014). Multi-Temporal Analysis of Mean Annual and Seasonal Stream Flow Trends, Including Periodicity and Multiple Non-Linear Regression. in Water Resources Management
Kluwer Academic Publishers., 28(12), 4319-4335.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0753-5

Stojković M, Ilić A, Prohaska S, Plavšić J. Multi-Temporal Analysis of Mean Annual and Seasonal Stream Flow Trends, Including Periodicity and Multiple Non-Linear Regression. in Water Resources Management. 2014;28(12):4319-4335.
doi:10.1007/s11269-014-0753-5 .

Stojković, Milan, Ilić, Aleksandra, Prohaska, Stevan, Plavšić, Jasna, "Multi-Temporal Analysis of Mean Annual and Seasonal Stream Flow Trends, Including Periodicity and Multiple Non-Linear Regression" in Water Resources Management, 28, no. 12 (2014):4319-4335,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0753-5 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
AU  - Prohaska, Stevan
PY  - 2014
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/572
AB  - This paper investigates the long-term changes in the hydrological time series. For this purpose, we use the trend analysis. The trend analysis is performed by using the standard Mann-Kendall trend test and by using the multi-temporal approach. The analysis is applied to the standardized and averaged time series of seasonal and annual flow of the river Sava at the stations Zagreb and Sremska Mitrovica for period from 1926 to 2005. It is concluded that the trend of seasonal and annual flow series of the Sava River are downward. The trends of annual flows in the region (Danube, Velika Morava, Lim) confirm this general pattern according to which the trends of annual flows in south-eastern Europe are downward. The multi-temporal analysis shows that the trend direction and intensity in the sub-series change with the long-term periodicity. The changes in trend direction and intensity depend on the length of the sub-series and the position of the sub-series within the whole time series.
AB  - U ovom radu analizirane su dugoročne promene u vremenskim serijama oticaja. Razmatrano je prisustvo trenda i višegodišnjih vodnih i sušnih ciklusa. Analiza trenda vršena je standardnim Mann-Kendall testom, a pored toga trend je analiziran korišćenjem tzv. multi-vremenskog pristupa u kojoj se trendovi računaju za podserije različitih početaka i dužina. Analiza je sprovedena na standardizovanim i osrednjenim serijama sezonskih i godišnjih proticaja na reci Savi na stanicama Zagreb i Sremska Mitrovica za period 1926-2005. Kada se posmatra ceo period, zaključuje se da je trend sezonskih i godišnjih proticaja na reci Savi opadajući. Trendovi godišnjih proticaja u širem području (Dunav, Velika Morava, Lim) su u skladu sa ovim rezultatima, dok reka Tisa poseduje rastuće trendove godišnjih proticaja. Multivremenskom analizom pokazano je da se trend razlikuje za različite podserije. Na smer i nagib trenda vremenskih serija utiče dužina serije kao i položaj podserije unutar cele serije. Promena smera i nagiba trenda ima ciklični karakter što odgovara smenama višegodišnjih vodnih i sušnih perioda.
PB  - Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd
T2  - Vodoprivreda
T1  - Long-term changes of annual and seasonal flows: A case of the Sava River
T1  - Dugoročne promene godišnjih i sezonskih proticaja - primer reke Save
EP  - 48
IS  - 1-6
SP  - 39
VL  - 46
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_572
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Stojković, Milan and Plavšić, Jasna and Prohaska, Stevan",
year = "2014",
abstract = "This paper investigates the long-term changes in the hydrological time series. For this purpose, we use the trend analysis. The trend analysis is performed by using the standard Mann-Kendall trend test and by using the multi-temporal approach. The analysis is applied to the standardized and averaged time series of seasonal and annual flow of the river Sava at the stations Zagreb and Sremska Mitrovica for period from 1926 to 2005. It is concluded that the trend of seasonal and annual flow series of the Sava River are downward. The trends of annual flows in the region (Danube, Velika Morava, Lim) confirm this general pattern according to which the trends of annual flows in south-eastern Europe are downward. The multi-temporal analysis shows that the trend direction and intensity in the sub-series change with the long-term periodicity. The changes in trend direction and intensity depend on the length of the sub-series and the position of the sub-series within the whole time series., U ovom radu analizirane su dugoročne promene u vremenskim serijama oticaja. Razmatrano je prisustvo trenda i višegodišnjih vodnih i sušnih ciklusa. Analiza trenda vršena je standardnim Mann-Kendall testom, a pored toga trend je analiziran korišćenjem tzv. multi-vremenskog pristupa u kojoj se trendovi računaju za podserije različitih početaka i dužina. Analiza je sprovedena na standardizovanim i osrednjenim serijama sezonskih i godišnjih proticaja na reci Savi na stanicama Zagreb i Sremska Mitrovica za period 1926-2005. Kada se posmatra ceo period, zaključuje se da je trend sezonskih i godišnjih proticaja na reci Savi opadajući. Trendovi godišnjih proticaja u širem području (Dunav, Velika Morava, Lim) su u skladu sa ovim rezultatima, dok reka Tisa poseduje rastuće trendove godišnjih proticaja. Multivremenskom analizom pokazano je da se trend razlikuje za različite podserije. Na smer i nagib trenda vremenskih serija utiče dužina serije kao i položaj podserije unutar cele serije. Promena smera i nagiba trenda ima ciklični karakter što odgovara smenama višegodišnjih vodnih i sušnih perioda.",
publisher = "Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd",
journal = "Vodoprivreda",
title = "Long-term changes of annual and seasonal flows: A case of the Sava River, Dugoročne promene godišnjih i sezonskih proticaja - primer reke Save",
pages = "48-39",
number = "1-6",
volume = "46",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_572"
}

Stojković, M., Plavšić, J.,& Prohaska, S.. (2014). Long-term changes of annual and seasonal flows: A case of the Sava River. in Vodoprivreda
Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd., 46(1-6), 39-48.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_572

Stojković M, Plavšić J, Prohaska S. Long-term changes of annual and seasonal flows: A case of the Sava River. in Vodoprivreda. 2014;46(1-6):39-48.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_572 .

Stojković, Milan, Plavšić, Jasna, Prohaska, Stevan, "Long-term changes of annual and seasonal flows: A case of the Sava River" in Vodoprivreda, 46, no. 1-6 (2014):39-48,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_572 .