@article{
author = "Ignjatović, Lazar and Stojković, Milan and Ivetić, Damjan and Milašinović, Miloš and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2021",
abstract = "The objective of this research is to introduce a novel framework to quantify the risk of
the reservoir system outside the design envelope, taking into account the risks related to floodprotection and hydro-energy generation under unfavourable reservoir element conditions (system
element failures) and hazardous situations within the environment (flood event). To analyze water
system behavior in adverse conditions, a system analysis approach is used, which is founded
upon the system dynamics model with a causal loop. The capability of the system in performing
the intended functionality can be quantified using the traditional static measures like reliability,
resilience and vulnerability, or dynamic resilience. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment
of a multi-parameter dynamic resilience is introduced. The multi-parameter dynamic resilience
envelops the hydropower and flood-protection resilience, as two opposing demands in the reservoir
operation regime. A case study of a Pirot reservoir, in the Republic of Serbia, is used. To estimate
the multi -parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system, a hydrological model, and a
system dynamic simulation model with an inner control loop, is developed. The inner control loop
provides the relation between the hydropower generation and flood-protection. The hydrological
model is calibrated and generated climate inputs are used to simulate the long-term flow sequences.
The most severe flood event period is extracted to be used as the input for the system dynamics
simulations. The system performance for five different scenarios with various multi failure events
(e.g., generator failure, segment gate failure on the spillway, leakage from reservoir and water supply
tunnel failure due to earthquake) are presented using the novel concept of the explicit modeling of the
component failures through element functionality indicators. Based on the outputs from the system
dynamics model, system performance is determined and, later, hydropower and flood protection
resilience. Then, multi-parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system is estimated and
compared with the traditional static measures (reliability). Discrepancy between the drop between
multi-parameter resilience (from 0.851 to 0.935) and reliability (from 0.993 to 1) shows that static
measure underestimates the risk to the water system. Thus, the results from this research show that
multi-parameter dynamic resilience, as an indicator, can provide additional insight compared to the
traditional static measures, leading to identification of the vulnerable elements of a complex reservoir system. Additionally, it is shown that the proposed explicit modeling of system components failure
can be used to reflect the drop of the overall system functionality",
publisher = "MDPI",
journal = "Water",
title = "Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System",
number = "22",
volume = "13",
doi = "10.3390/w13223157"
}
