TY  - JOUR
AU  - Arnaut, Filip
AU  - Cvetkov, Vesna
AU  - Đurić, Dragana
AU  - Samardžić-Petrović, Mileva
PY  - 2023
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3275
AB  - We  demonstrate  the  use  of  Facebook's  Prophet  (usually  just  called  Prophet) model  for  short-term  air  quality  forecasting  at  Belgrade-Zeleno  brdo  monitoring station. To address missing data, we applied minimally-altering data distribution imputation techniques. Linear interpolation proved effective for short-term gaps (1–3 hours), hourly mean method for mid-term gaps (24–26 hours), and Hermite interpolation polynomial for long-term gaps (132–148 hours). The most significant data change was a 3.4% shift in skewness. Partitioning the time series enabled a detailed  quality  assessment  of  the  Prophet  model,  with  PM2.5predictions  being more  precise  than  PM10.  Using  the  longest  time  series  for  forecasting  yielded absolute  errors  of  6.5μg/m3forPM10and  2.7μg/m3for  PM2.5.  Based  on  173 forecasts, we anticipate Prophet model root-mean-square values under 6.26μg/m3and   9.99μg/m3for   PM2.5 and   PM10in   50%   of   cases.   The   Prophet   model demonstrates   several   advantages   and   yields   satisfactory   results.   In   future research,  the  results  obtained  from  the  Prophet  model  will  serve  as  benchmark values  for other models.  Additionally,  the Prophet model  is  capable of  providing satisfactory air quality forecasting results and will be utilized in future researc
T2  - Geofizika
T1  - Short-term forecasting of PM10and PM2.5 concentrations with Facebook's Prophet Model at the Belgrade-Zeleno brdo
VL  - 40
DO  - 10.15233/gfz.2023.40.7
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Arnaut, Filip and Cvetkov, Vesna and Đurić, Dragana and Samardžić-Petrović, Mileva",
year = "2023",
abstract = "We  demonstrate  the  use  of  Facebook's  Prophet  (usually  just  called  Prophet) model  for  short-term  air  quality  forecasting  at  Belgrade-Zeleno  brdo  monitoring station. To address missing data, we applied minimally-altering data distribution imputation techniques. Linear interpolation proved effective for short-term gaps (1–3 hours), hourly mean method for mid-term gaps (24–26 hours), and Hermite interpolation polynomial for long-term gaps (132–148 hours). The most significant data change was a 3.4% shift in skewness. Partitioning the time series enabled a detailed  quality  assessment  of  the  Prophet  model,  with  PM2.5predictions  being more  precise  than  PM10.  Using  the  longest  time  series  for  forecasting  yielded absolute  errors  of  6.5μg/m3forPM10and  2.7μg/m3for  PM2.5.  Based  on  173 forecasts, we anticipate Prophet model root-mean-square values under 6.26μg/m3and   9.99μg/m3for   PM2.5 and   PM10in   50%   of   cases.   The   Prophet   model demonstrates   several   advantages   and   yields   satisfactory   results.   In   future research,  the  results  obtained  from  the  Prophet  model  will  serve  as  benchmark values  for other models.  Additionally,  the Prophet model  is  capable of  providing satisfactory air quality forecasting results and will be utilized in future researc",
journal = "Geofizika",
title = "Short-term forecasting of PM10and PM2.5 concentrations with Facebook's Prophet Model at the Belgrade-Zeleno brdo",
volume = "40",
doi = "10.15233/gfz.2023.40.7"
}

Arnaut, F., Cvetkov, V., Đurić, D.,& Samardžić-Petrović, M.. (2023). Short-term forecasting of PM10and PM2.5 concentrations with Facebook's Prophet Model at the Belgrade-Zeleno brdo. in Geofizika, 40.
https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.7

Arnaut F, Cvetkov V, Đurić D, Samardžić-Petrović M. Short-term forecasting of PM10and PM2.5 concentrations with Facebook's Prophet Model at the Belgrade-Zeleno brdo. in Geofizika. 2023;40.
doi:10.15233/gfz.2023.40.7 .

Arnaut, Filip, Cvetkov, Vesna, Đurić, Dragana, Samardžić-Petrović, Mileva, "Short-term forecasting of PM10and PM2.5 concentrations with Facebook's Prophet Model at the Belgrade-Zeleno brdo" in Geofizika, 40 (2023),
https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.7 . .