@article{
author = "Đorđević, Branislav and Grujović, Nenad and Divac, Dejan",
year = "2004",
abstract = "The water management system for the Drina river basin will be one of the most complex systems in Europe with regard to its areal coverage and performance. Successful planning of the system and management of the finished product need to be based on the state-of-the-art cybernetic approach. The methods of implementing the target architecture are considered, aimed at the highest level defined as integrated regulation, use and protection of the Drina river basin, which is then broken down in the form of a tree into increasingly detailed objectives of the various users in the basin. A particularly important conclusion is drawn that water management and hydroelectric power objectives and those of other users in the basin have to be treated equitably. Following distribution of the system, the basic types of replication in certain parts of the system are presented. The decision-making process in all stages of management is considered, including the determination of tasks at the decision-making level and the technical level where modeling, estimation and evaluation/optimization of management take place, in preparation for the decision-making process. The decision maker needs to be iteratively involved in the decision-making process, in order to be able to require changes of criteria and preferences based on new knowledge acquired from optimization results, in the course of multi-criteria evaluation and management decision-making. The optimization tasks are considered, and a special assessment is made of the criteria most applicable to the Drina system planning and operation process. The role of external estimators is also addressed, and a management improvement is shown to be the result of obtaining forecasts of the outcome of input vectors in the system., Vodoprivredni sistem u slivu Drine biće jedan od prostorno i funkcionalno najsloženijih sistema u Evropi. Uspešno planiranje sistema i upravljanje gotovim sistemom mora se zasnivati na najsavremenijim kibernetskim metodama. Razmatraju se načini formalizacije ciljnih struktura, sa ciljem najvišeg reda koji se definiše kao "integralno uređenje, korišćenje i zaštita sliva reke Drine", koji se zatim u vidu granatog stabla dekomponije na sve podrobnije ciljeve svih korisnika prostora. Kao posebno važan zaključak se ističe da se vodoprivredni i hidroenergetski ciljevi moraju tretirati sasvim ravnopravno sa ciljevima svih ostalih korisnika prostora. Nakon dekompozicije sistema prikazuju se osnovni tipovi preslikavanja u pojedinim delovima sistema. Razmatra se proces odlučivanja u svim fazama upravljanja, sa determinisanjem zadataka na nivou donošenje odluka i na tehničkom nivoa, na kome se obavlja modeliranje, estimacija i valorizacija/optimizacija upravljanja, kao priprema za proces donošenja odluka. Donosilac odluke mora da bude iterativno uključen u proces odlučivanja, kako bi na bazi novih saznanja o rezultatima optimizacije mogao da zahteva izmenu kriterijuma i preferencija, pri višekriterijumskom vrednovanju varijanti i upravljačkih odluka. Razmatraju se zadaci optimizacije, pri čemu se posebno analiziraju kriterijumi koji su najupotrebljiviji u procesu planiranja i eksploatacije sistema u slivu Drine. Analizira se i uloga spoljnih estimatora, i prikazuje poboljšanje upravljanja kao rezultat dobijanja prognoze realizacije ulaznih vektora u sistemu.",
publisher = "Jugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd",
journal = "Vodoprivreda",
title = "Optimization and estimation in the planning and management of the Drina system, Optimizacija i estimacija pri planiranju i upravljanju u sistemu Drine",
pages = "201-187",
number = "1-2",
volume = "36",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_81"
}
