TY  - JOUR
AU  - Stojković, MIlan
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
AU  - Prohaska, Stevan
AU  - Pavlović, Dragutin
AU  - Despotović, Jovan
PY  - 2019
UR  - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1823
AB  - Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in Southeast Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the climate changes impact on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The last one is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950-2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the RCP emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013-2070.
PB  - Taylor & Francis
T2  - Hydrological Sciences Journal
T1  - A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)
DO  - 10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Stojković, MIlan and Plavšić, Jasna and Prohaska, Stevan and Pavlović, Dragutin and Despotović, Jovan",
year = "2019",
abstract = "Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in Southeast Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the climate changes impact on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The last one is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950-2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the RCP emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013-2070.",
publisher = "Taylor & Francis",
journal = "Hydrological Sciences Journal",
title = "A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)",
doi = "10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241"
}

Stojković, M., Plavšić, J., Prohaska, S., Pavlović, D.,& Despotović, J.. (2019). A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe). in Hydrological Sciences Journal
Taylor & Francis..
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241

Stojković M, Plavšić J, Prohaska S, Pavlović D, Despotović J. A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe). in Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2019;.
doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241 .

Stojković, MIlan, Plavšić, Jasna, Prohaska, Stevan, Pavlović, Dragutin, Despotović, Jovan, "A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)" in Hydrological Sciences Journal (2019),
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241 . .