Trends in precipitation indices for Belgrade

Abstract

Three statistical tests are applied to the precipitation indices time series, derived from daily precipitation observed at the “Vračar” raingauge in Belgrade from 1923 to 2012. Precipitation indices include total annual and monthly precipitation, yearly and monthly number of rainy days, precipitation concentration index, 1-day and multi-day annual maximum daily precipitation, various percentiles of daily precipitation and annual number of rainy days, annual maximum number of consecutive dry days, etc. The tests include the linear regression slope test, the Mann-Kendall test, and the Cox-Stuart test. All tests have an absence of a statistically significant trend as a null hypothesis. Detrended time series were subject to the parametric Fisher’s test for trend in variance. The results obtained are presented along with the conclusions about the change in the precipitation regime in Belgrade.