Application of partitioned multiobjective risk method on extreme events

Abstract

Hydraulic structures and systems are almost always conceived, designed, constructed, operated and maintained under the inevitable conditions of risk and uncertainty, where they are expected to achieve multiple and mutually conflicting objectives. In the process of comparing risks, traditionally, catastrophic losses that have little probability of the occurrence commensurate with minor damages that have high probability. However, it is obvious that low probability major flood event can not be addressed by the decision makers in the same way as high probability small floods, which is a result of a function that generates expected values. It is clear that the above two cases are far from being equal or proportional. The paper considers the problem of the risk of extreme events and presents method for determining the conditional expected value by partitioned multiobjective risk method, and demonstrates its potential applications through case studies.