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Neizvesnosti u analizi velikih voda metodom parcijalnih serija

dc.creatorPlavšić, Jasna
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-19T14:11:33Z
dc.date.available2019-04-19T14:11:33Z
dc.date.issued2006
dc.identifier.issn0350-0519
dc.identifier.urihttps://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/143
dc.description.abstractIn hydrologic practice, flood frequency analysis is usually based on fitting a theoretical distribution to observed data series. Flood frequency analysis in hydrologic practice is essentially based on fitting of a theoretical probability distribution to observed flood data, meaning that the results of the flood frequency analysis is always associated with some amount of uncertainty. For flood frequency analysis that is based on series of annual maximum floods, uncertainties have been investigated in detail and can be readily found in literature on hydrologic statistics. On the other hand, that is not the case with uncertainties in flood frequency analysis based on partial duration series (or peaks over threshold method). The paper describes briefly the peaks over threshold method, and then discusses uncertainties in its application. Uncertainties in quantile estimates and in probability estimates for fixed flood value are considered. Factors affecting these uncertainties are described, including sample size, shape parameters of distributions for exceedances, and parameter estimation method. Several examples showing uncertainties in flood series on Serbian rivers are presented.en
dc.description.abstractU hidrološkoj praksi statistička analiza velikih voda zasniva se prevashodno na prilagođivanju teorijske raspodele verovatnoće osmotrenim podacima, što znači da su rezultati analize velikih voda uvek povezani sa određenim neizvesnostima. Neizvesnosti u statističkoj analizi velikih voda koja se zasniva na nizovima godišnjih maksimuma protoka su detaljno izučene i opisane su u stručnoj literaturi iz hidrološke statistike. S druge strane, to nije slučaj sa analizom velikih voda koja se zasniva na metodi pikova, odnosno na parcijalnim serijama. U ovom radu prikazana je ukratko metoda parcijalnih serija, a zatim su razmatrane neizvesnosti u primeni ove metode. Opisani su faktori koji utiču na neizvesnosti, uključujući uticaje dužine niza, vrednosti parametara i vrste metode za ocenu parametara.sr
dc.publisherJugoslovensko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje, Beograd
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.sourceVodoprivreda
dc.subjectfloodsen
dc.subjectfrequency analysisen
dc.subjectpartial duration seriesen
dc.subjectpeaks over threshold methoden
dc.subjectuncertaintyen
dc.subjectvelike vodesr
dc.subjectstatistička analizasr
dc.subjectmetoda parcijalnih serijasr
dc.subjectneizvesnostsr
dc.titleUncertainties in flood frequency estimation by partial duration seriesen
dc.titleNeizvesnosti u analizi velikih voda metodom parcijalnih serijasr
dc.typearticle
dc.rights.licenseARR
dc.citation.epage50
dc.citation.issue1-3
dc.citation.other38(1-3): 41-50
dc.citation.spage41
dc.citation.volume38
dc.identifier.fulltexthttps://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs//bitstream/id/3514/141.pdf
dc.identifier.rcubhttps://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_143
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion


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