Statistical analysis of meteo-droughts for Sremska Mitrovica and Kikinda

Abstract

This paper presents the results of stochastic analysis of meteorological droughts occurrence in a growing season based on the data from two meteorological stations in Vojvodina (Sremska Mitrovica and Kikinda). Meteorological drought is defined as a product of drought length (period lasting at least 25 days with precipitation below 5 mm/day) and mean air temperature during the dry period. Stochastic model of the meteo-drought occurrence is based on the theory of extremes with a random number of random variables, allowing to make use of all significant observed meteo-droughts. The model is comprised of the Poissonian process that describes the droughts occurrence and selected theoretical distributions for the droughts magnitude. Design meteo-droughts having return period 10, 20, 50 and 100 years are determined on the basis of adopted theoretical distribution of meteo-drought, duration and mean air temperature.