Stochastic approach to flood damage assessment

Abstract

This article deals with deterministic and stochastic approaches to assess the expected annual flood damages. Each approach is illustrated by a case study pertaining to floods at different sections of the Tamnava river in Serbia. The objective was to use examples from engineering practice in order to demonstrate how various uncertainties may affect the expected annual damage, and consequently, how to determine the economically optimal degree of flood protection, expressed by the designed height of the levees.

U ovom članku se opisuju deterministički i stohastički pristupi u određivanju očekivane godišnje štete od poplava. Njihova primena se ilustruje proračunima za jednu deonicu reke Tamnave. Namera je da se konkretnim primerom iz prakse ispita u kojoj meri neizvesnost ulaznih podataka utiče na očekivanu godišnju štetu, a preko nje, na ekonomski optimalni stepen zaštite, izražen preko projektne visine odbrambenih nasipa.