A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)

Abstract

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in Southeast Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the climate changes impact on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The last one is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950-2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the RCP emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013-2070.