A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)
Članak u časopisu (Recenzirana verzija)
Metapodaci
Prikaz svih podataka o dokumentuApstrakt
Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in Southeast Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the climate changes impact on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The last one is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950-2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the RCP emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013-2070.
Ključne reči:
two-stage deterministic-stochastic time series model / transfer function models / Lim River basin / Southeast Europe / climate changeIzvor:
Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2019Izdavač:
- Taylor & Francis
Finansiranje / projekti:
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241
ISSN: 2150-3435
WoS: 000501695700001
Scopus: 2-s2.0-85076425199
URI
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1823
Institucija/grupa
GraFarTY - JOUR AU - Stojković, MIlan AU - Plavšić, Jasna AU - Prohaska, Stevan AU - Pavlović, Dragutin AU - Despotović, Jovan PY - 2019 UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241 UR - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1823 AB - Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in Southeast Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the climate changes impact on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The last one is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950-2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the RCP emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013-2070. PB - Taylor & Francis T2 - Hydrological Sciences Journal T1 - A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe) DO - 10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241 ER -
@article{ author = "Stojković, MIlan and Plavšić, Jasna and Prohaska, Stevan and Pavlović, Dragutin and Despotović, Jovan", year = "2019", abstract = "Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in Southeast Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the climate changes impact on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The last one is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950-2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the RCP emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013-2070.", publisher = "Taylor & Francis", journal = "Hydrological Sciences Journal", title = "A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)", doi = "10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241" }
Stojković, M., Plavšić, J., Prohaska, S., Pavlović, D.,& Despotović, J.. (2019). A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe). in Hydrological Sciences Journal Taylor & Francis.. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241
Stojković M, Plavšić J, Prohaska S, Pavlović D, Despotović J. A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe). in Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2019;. doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241 .
Stojković, MIlan, Plavšić, Jasna, Prohaska, Stevan, Pavlović, Dragutin, Despotović, Jovan, "A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)" in Hydrological Sciences Journal (2019), https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241 . .