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dc.creatorStojković, MIlan
dc.creatorPlavšić, Jasna
dc.creatorProhaska, Stevan
dc.creatorPavlović, Dragutin
dc.creatorDespotović, Jovan
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-05T12:52:06Z
dc.date.available2020-11-29
dc.date.issued2019
dc.identifier.issn2150-3435
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241
dc.identifier.urihttp://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1823
dc.description.abstractClimate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in Southeast Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the climate changes impact on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The last one is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950-2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the RCP emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013-2070.en
dc.language.isoensr
dc.publisherTaylor & Francissr
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MESTD/Technological Development (TD or TR)/37005/RSsr
dc.rightsembargoedAccesssr
dc.sourceHydrological Sciences Journalsr
dc.subjecttwo-stage deterministic-stochastic time series modelsr
dc.subjecttransfer function modelssr
dc.subjectLim River basinsr
dc.subjectSoutheast Europesr
dc.subjectclimate changesr
dc.titleA two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)en
dc.typearticlesr
dc.rights.licenseBY-NC-NDsr
dc.rights.holderTaylor & Francissr
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241
dc.identifier.fulltexthttp://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/bitstream/id/7000/bitstream_7000.pdf
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85076425199
dc.identifier.wos000501695700001
dc.type.versionacceptedVersionsr


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