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Evaluating the transferability of monthly water balance models under changing climate conditions

Authorized Users Only
2020
Authors
Topalović, Žana
Todorović, Andrijana
Plavšić, Jasna
Article (Published version)
,
Taylor&Francis
Metadata
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Abstract
Monthly water balance models (MWBMs) are often used for making flow projections under climate change. As such, these models should provide accurate flow simulations; however, they are seldom evaluated in this regard. This paper presents a comprehensive framework intended for the evaluation of the applicability of MWBMs under changing climatic conditions. The framework consists of analyses of consistency in model performance, parameter estimates and simulated water balance components, and a subjective assessment of model transferability. Four MWBMs – abcd, Budyko, GR2M and WASMOD – are used to simulate runoff in the Wimmera catchment affected by the Millennium drought. Although abcd and Budyko slightly outperformed GR2M and WASMOD, none of the models performed well in transfer to the driest period. The greatest variability is detected in simulated groundwater storage and baseflow; thus, these model components should be improved and/or enhanced calibration strategies should be employed t...o advance the transferability of MWBMs under changing climate.

Keywords:
changing climate / evaluation framework / hydrological signatures / model performance indicators / model transferability / monthly water balance models
Source:
Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2020, 65
Publisher:
  • Taylor&Francis

DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2020.1725238

ISSN: 0262-6667 (Print); 2150-3435 (Online)

WoS: 000514506900001

Scopus: 2-s2.0-85079731400
[ Google Scholar ]
9
4
URI
https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1965
Collections
  • Катедра за хидротехнику и водно-еколошко инжењерство
Institution/Community
GraFar
TY  - JOUR
AU  - Topalović, Žana
AU  - Todorović, Andrijana
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
PY  - 2020
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1965
AB  - Monthly water balance models (MWBMs) are often used for making flow projections under climate change. As such, these models should provide accurate flow simulations; however, they are seldom evaluated in this regard. This paper presents a comprehensive framework intended for the evaluation of the applicability of MWBMs under changing climatic conditions. The framework consists of analyses of consistency in model performance, parameter estimates and simulated water balance components, and a subjective assessment of model transferability. Four MWBMs – abcd, Budyko, GR2M and WASMOD – are used to simulate runoff in the Wimmera catchment affected by the Millennium drought. Although abcd and Budyko slightly outperformed GR2M and WASMOD, none of the models performed well in transfer to the driest period. The greatest variability is detected in simulated groundwater storage and baseflow; thus, these model components should be improved and/or enhanced calibration strategies should be employed to advance the transferability of MWBMs under changing climate.
PB  - Taylor&Francis
T2  - Hydrological Sciences Journal
T1  - Evaluating the transferability of monthly water balance models under changing climate conditions
VL  - 65
DO  - 10.1080/02626667.2020.1725238
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Topalović, Žana and Todorović, Andrijana and Plavšić, Jasna",
year = "2020",
abstract = "Monthly water balance models (MWBMs) are often used for making flow projections under climate change. As such, these models should provide accurate flow simulations; however, they are seldom evaluated in this regard. This paper presents a comprehensive framework intended for the evaluation of the applicability of MWBMs under changing climatic conditions. The framework consists of analyses of consistency in model performance, parameter estimates and simulated water balance components, and a subjective assessment of model transferability. Four MWBMs – abcd, Budyko, GR2M and WASMOD – are used to simulate runoff in the Wimmera catchment affected by the Millennium drought. Although abcd and Budyko slightly outperformed GR2M and WASMOD, none of the models performed well in transfer to the driest period. The greatest variability is detected in simulated groundwater storage and baseflow; thus, these model components should be improved and/or enhanced calibration strategies should be employed to advance the transferability of MWBMs under changing climate.",
publisher = "Taylor&Francis",
journal = "Hydrological Sciences Journal",
title = "Evaluating the transferability of monthly water balance models under changing climate conditions",
volume = "65",
doi = "10.1080/02626667.2020.1725238"
}
Topalović, Ž., Todorović, A.,& Plavšić, J.. (2020). Evaluating the transferability of monthly water balance models under changing climate conditions. in Hydrological Sciences Journal
Taylor&Francis., 65.
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1725238
Topalović Ž, Todorović A, Plavšić J. Evaluating the transferability of monthly water balance models under changing climate conditions. in Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2020;65.
doi:10.1080/02626667.2020.1725238 .
Topalović, Žana, Todorović, Andrijana, Plavšić, Jasna, "Evaluating the transferability of monthly water balance models under changing climate conditions" in Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65 (2020),
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1725238 . .

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