Statistical approach in land-use suitability analysis of the Belgrade City suburbs
Аутори
Petrović, RastkoMarjanović, Miloš
Đurić, Uroš
Šušić, Vladimir
Abolmasov, Biljana
Zečević, Snežana
Остала ауторства
Vujošević, MiodragMiljić, Saša
Конференцијски прилог (Објављена верзија)
,
Institute of Architecture and Urban & Spatial Planning of Serbia (IAUS)
Метаподаци
Приказ свих података о документуАпстракт
The need for smart sustainable urban solutions has never been greater than it is today.
Master plan (MP) represents rather significant document for a city development and the
City of Belgrade has a tradition and long history of development under MP framework
(Djuric et al 2013). Current MP (Fig. 1), made by the Urban Planning Institute of Belgrade,
has been adopted in 2003 and refers to the development period by the year of 2021
(http://www.urbel.com/default.aspx?ID=uzb_BG_planovi&LN=ENG).
On the other hand the City of Belgrade is facing a rapid urban sprawl so suburbanization
problem is particularly pronounced. Since MP is following the current needs of the city,
active subjects of economic development as well as urban municipalities, there is strong
initiative to expand its current extents for the suburb areas.
Among other significant points of the MP, determination of the Land-Use Suitability
(LUS) is considered to be one of the foremost planning references. LUS analysis ...is a tool
used to define future land uses or their potential. Suitability techniques enable
environmental managers, planners and engineers to analyze the interactions among various
factors. Decision makers and developers can use the outputs to set policies and make
decisions regarding the use of land. Contemporary environmental managers and planners
are aware of the technological advancements in land-use allocation and suitability
modelling. New methods of spatial analysis are now commonly used in the development of
land-use plans, environmental impact reviews, and site selection studies for many different
land uses and public and private facilities (Collins, 2001). The earliest applications of
suitability analysis conducted by engineering geologists and civil engineers for Belgrade
MP area, in form of hand-drawn sieve mapping overlays was done by Šutić et al. (1972).
Later, numerous researchers performed similar suitability analysis for different purposes
(urban planning, defining best/optimal road routes etc). First work involving suitability
analysis in GIS environment has been done in 2009/2010 (Marjanović, 2009; Djurić,
2010), but none for Belgrade area.
This paper introduces a new approach and represents in fact, a pioneering work performed
for the City of Belgrade. It represents how available thematic data, processed in GIS
environment, can be and was used for LUS assessment. One of the statistical methods
involving the Conditional Probability (CP) approach with the Weight of Evidence
technique, has been used. Conventional methods on the other hand, are still needed to
validate the outcomes and to calibrate these GIS-based methods, which are still to be
developed and perfected.
There was a strong motif supporting this research, since in-charged City’s government
services have shown interest in extending the Master Plan (MP) to the Belgrade suburb
areas.
Кључне речи:
Land-Use suitability / GIS / City of Belgrade / Suburbanization / Conditional ProbabilityИзвор:
International Scientific Conference Regional Development, Spatial Planning and Strategic Governance - RESPAG 2013 - Conference proceedings, 2013, 517-529Издавач:
- Institute of Architecture and Urban & Spatial Planning of Serbia (IAUS)
Финансирање / пројекти:
- Примена GNSS и LIDAR технологије у мониторингу стабилности инфраструктурних објеката и терена (RS-36009)