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Methodology for deriving synthetic meteorological droughts and its application for Budapest

Authorized Users Only
2019
Authors
Gabrić, Ognjen
Plavšić, Jasna
Article (Published version)
Metadata
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Abstract
In the recent years, nearly every part of Central Europe and the Balkans has experienced periods of reduced precipitation that can lead to droughts. Because of the complexity of the phenomenon and the different points of view from which the problem can be studied, it is difficult to decide when the drought started or when it ended. This paper presents a methodology for a stochastic analysis of meteorological droughts. This method is applied to precipitation and temperature data observed at a meteorological station of Budapest for the period of 1900–2000. The drought is defined as a consequence of a combined effect of temperature and prolonged dry period – consecutive days with daily precipitation below a chosen threshold for precipitation. The statistical analysis of the maximum meteorological droughts is performed by means of the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method. The proposed methodology provides probability distributions of the magnitude of droughts in terms of dry period... duration and air temperatures, which can then be used to formulate synthetic design droughts for selected return periods.

Keywords:
Budapest / drought / stochastic process / synthetic design drought / peaks-overthreshold (POT) method
Source:
Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (Időjárás), 2019, 123, 4, 501-519
Funding / projects:
  • Urban Drainage Systems as Key Infrastructure in Cities and Towns (RS-37010)

DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241

ISSN: 0324-6329

WoS: 000501695700001

Scopus: 2-s2.0-85076425199
[ Google Scholar ]
2
1
URI
https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2164
Collections
  • Катедра за хидротехнику и водно-еколошко инжењерство
Institution/Community
GraFar
TY  - JOUR
AU  - Gabrić, Ognjen
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
PY  - 2019
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2164
AB  - In the recent years, nearly every part of Central Europe and the Balkans has
experienced periods of reduced precipitation that can lead to droughts. Because of the
complexity of the phenomenon and the different points of view from which the problem
can be studied, it is difficult to decide when the drought started or when it ended. This paper
presents a methodology for a stochastic analysis of meteorological droughts. This method
is applied to precipitation and temperature data observed at a meteorological station of
Budapest for the period of 1900–2000. The drought is defined as a consequence of a
combined effect of temperature and prolonged dry period – consecutive days with daily
precipitation below a chosen threshold for precipitation. The statistical analysis of the
maximum meteorological droughts is performed by means of the peaks-over-threshold
(POT) method. The proposed methodology provides probability distributions of the
magnitude of droughts in terms of dry period duration and air temperatures, which can then
be used to formulate synthetic design droughts for selected return periods.
T2  - Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (Időjárás)
T1  - Methodology for deriving synthetic meteorological droughts and its application for Budapest
EP  - 519
IS  - 4
SP  - 501
VL  - 123
DO  - 10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Gabrić, Ognjen and Plavšić, Jasna",
year = "2019",
abstract = "In the recent years, nearly every part of Central Europe and the Balkans has
experienced periods of reduced precipitation that can lead to droughts. Because of the
complexity of the phenomenon and the different points of view from which the problem
can be studied, it is difficult to decide when the drought started or when it ended. This paper
presents a methodology for a stochastic analysis of meteorological droughts. This method
is applied to precipitation and temperature data observed at a meteorological station of
Budapest for the period of 1900–2000. The drought is defined as a consequence of a
combined effect of temperature and prolonged dry period – consecutive days with daily
precipitation below a chosen threshold for precipitation. The statistical analysis of the
maximum meteorological droughts is performed by means of the peaks-over-threshold
(POT) method. The proposed methodology provides probability distributions of the
magnitude of droughts in terms of dry period duration and air temperatures, which can then
be used to formulate synthetic design droughts for selected return periods.",
journal = "Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (Időjárás)",
title = "Methodology for deriving synthetic meteorological droughts and its application for Budapest",
pages = "519-501",
number = "4",
volume = "123",
doi = "10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241"
}
Gabrić, O.,& Plavšić, J.. (2019). Methodology for deriving synthetic meteorological droughts and its application for Budapest. in Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (Időjárás), 123(4), 501-519.
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241
Gabrić O, Plavšić J. Methodology for deriving synthetic meteorological droughts and its application for Budapest. in Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (Időjárás). 2019;123(4):501-519.
doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241 .
Gabrić, Ognjen, Plavšić, Jasna, "Methodology for deriving synthetic meteorological droughts and its application for Budapest" in Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (Időjárás), 123, no. 4 (2019):501-519,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241 . .

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