Methodology for deriving synthetic meteorological droughts and its application for Budapest
Abstract
In the recent years, nearly every part of Central Europe and the Balkans has
experienced periods of reduced precipitation that can lead to droughts. Because of the
complexity of the phenomenon and the different points of view from which the problem
can be studied, it is difficult to decide when the drought started or when it ended. This paper
presents a methodology for a stochastic analysis of meteorological droughts. This method
is applied to precipitation and temperature data observed at a meteorological station of
Budapest for the period of 1900–2000. The drought is defined as a consequence of a
combined effect of temperature and prolonged dry period – consecutive days with daily
precipitation below a chosen threshold for precipitation. The statistical analysis of the
maximum meteorological droughts is performed by means of the peaks-over-threshold
(POT) method. The proposed methodology provides probability distributions of the
magnitude of droughts in terms of dry period... duration and air temperatures, which can then
be used to formulate synthetic design droughts for selected return periods.
Keywords:
Budapest / drought / stochastic process / synthetic design drought / peaks-overthreshold (POT) methodSource:
Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (Időjárás), 2019, 123, 4, 501-519Funding / projects:
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241
ISSN: 0324-6329
WoS: 000501695700001
Scopus: 2-s2.0-85076425199
Institution/Community
GraFarTY - JOUR AU - Gabrić, Ognjen AU - Plavšić, Jasna PY - 2019 UR - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2164 AB - In the recent years, nearly every part of Central Europe and the Balkans has experienced periods of reduced precipitation that can lead to droughts. Because of the complexity of the phenomenon and the different points of view from which the problem can be studied, it is difficult to decide when the drought started or when it ended. This paper presents a methodology for a stochastic analysis of meteorological droughts. This method is applied to precipitation and temperature data observed at a meteorological station of Budapest for the period of 1900–2000. The drought is defined as a consequence of a combined effect of temperature and prolonged dry period – consecutive days with daily precipitation below a chosen threshold for precipitation. The statistical analysis of the maximum meteorological droughts is performed by means of the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method. The proposed methodology provides probability distributions of the magnitude of droughts in terms of dry period duration and air temperatures, which can then be used to formulate synthetic design droughts for selected return periods. T2 - Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (Időjárás) T1 - Methodology for deriving synthetic meteorological droughts and its application for Budapest EP - 519 IS - 4 SP - 501 VL - 123 DO - 10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241 ER -
@article{ author = "Gabrić, Ognjen and Plavšić, Jasna", year = "2019", abstract = "In the recent years, nearly every part of Central Europe and the Balkans has experienced periods of reduced precipitation that can lead to droughts. Because of the complexity of the phenomenon and the different points of view from which the problem can be studied, it is difficult to decide when the drought started or when it ended. This paper presents a methodology for a stochastic analysis of meteorological droughts. This method is applied to precipitation and temperature data observed at a meteorological station of Budapest for the period of 1900–2000. The drought is defined as a consequence of a combined effect of temperature and prolonged dry period – consecutive days with daily precipitation below a chosen threshold for precipitation. The statistical analysis of the maximum meteorological droughts is performed by means of the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method. The proposed methodology provides probability distributions of the magnitude of droughts in terms of dry period duration and air temperatures, which can then be used to formulate synthetic design droughts for selected return periods.", journal = "Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (Időjárás)", title = "Methodology for deriving synthetic meteorological droughts and its application for Budapest", pages = "519-501", number = "4", volume = "123", doi = "10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241" }
Gabrić, O.,& Plavšić, J.. (2019). Methodology for deriving synthetic meteorological droughts and its application for Budapest. in Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (Időjárás), 123(4), 501-519. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241
Gabrić O, Plavšić J. Methodology for deriving synthetic meteorological droughts and its application for Budapest. in Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (Időjárás). 2019;123(4):501-519. doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241 .
Gabrić, Ognjen, Plavšić, Jasna, "Methodology for deriving synthetic meteorological droughts and its application for Budapest" in Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (Időjárás), 123, no. 4 (2019):501-519, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241 . .