Impact of climate change on Serbian water management and measures for protection against negative impacts

Abstract

Emisija gasova staklene bašte (GSB) dovodi do klimatskih i hidroloških promena koje će sve nepovoljnije uticati na vodoprivredne i vodene ekosisteme. Da bi se sagledala opasnost od tih promena, u članku se najpre sistematizuju zaključci o realnom stanju vodnih resursa Srbije. To stanje se može sažeti u stav da je Srbija vodom siromašna zemlja, koja nije u stanju da čak i na nivou prosečnih protoka podmiri svoje potrebe samo iz domaćih voda. Stanje mnogo pogoršava velika prostorna i vremenska neravnomernost voda, tako da se u malovodnim periodima suma svih domaćih voda smanjuje na samo oko 50 m3/s, što je oko deset puta manje od prosečnih protoka voda koje se formiraju na prostoru Srbije. U posebnoj glavi se razmatra uticaj dva scenarija emisije GSB na promene klimatoloških i hidroloških parametara na području Srbije. Bitni klimatološki pokazatelji se pogoršavaju: po oba scenarija povećavaće se temparature u svim godišnjim dobima, što je vrlo nepovoljan proces i za vodoprivredne i za ekološke sisteme. Smanjuju se prosečne padavine, posebno u južnom i ističnim delovima zamlje. Međutim, mnogo nepovoljnija je činjenica da će smanjenje padavina biti posebno izraženo u letnjem, vegetacionom delu godine, i da će pogoršanje biti posebno veliko u južnom i istočnom delu zemlje, koji su i do sada bile oskudne. To u veoma nepovoljan položaj dovodi sve grane vodoprivrede, posebno navodnjavanje. Vrlo su nepovoljne posledice i na režime proticaja. Po oba scenarija smanjuju se prosečni godišnji protoci na rekama na slivovima sve tri Morave, Ibra, Timoka, Drine. Međutim, neuporedivo je nepovoljnija i više zabrinjava nepovoljna raspodela smanjivanja protoka tokom godine: u zimskim periodima dolazi čak i do izvesnog povećavanja u odnosu na sadašnje vrednosti, a najveće smanjenje se očekuje u vegetacinom delu godine, posebno u mesecima koji su se i do sada smatrali malovodnim – od jula do oktobra. Veoma je nepovoljno i znatno smanjenje intenziteta obnavljanja podzemnih voda (čak i preko 50%, zavisno od područja zemlje i perioda), i u tom slučaju najviše u južnom i istočnom delu zemlje. U skladu sa tim predviđanjima u centralnom delu članka se razmatraju posledice u svim vodoprivrednim granama, kao i mere koje se moraju preduzeti da bi se neutralisale ili umanjile posledice tih napovoljnih procesa. Važan je zaključak da će u novim okolnostima budućnost Srbije zavisiti od – akumulacija sa godišnjim regulisanjem protoka. Neohodne su brojne nove akumulacije i daje se okvirni pregled takvih objekata, onih koji su najneophodniji. Zahteva se da se za sve njih izradi projektna dokomentacija na nivou Generalnih projekata, kako bi se prostornim planovima prostora posebnih namena svi ti prostori sasvim konkretno zaštitili samo za te namene. To isto važi i za sva izvorišta, posebno ona velika, regionalnog značaja. Daje se zaključak o najvažnijim aktivnostima koje treba uraditi da bi se vodoprivredni sistemi pripremili za funkcionisanje u sve nepovoljnijim uslovima delovanja klimatskih promena.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are causing climate and hydrological changes that will increasingly affect water management systems and ecosystems. In order to see the danger of these changes, the article first systematizes the conclusions about the real state of Serbia's water resources. This situation can be summarized in the view that Serbia is a water-poor country, which is not able to meet its needs only at the level of average flows only from domestic waters. The situation is much more unfavorable due to the large spatial and temporal unevenness of the water. In low-water periods, the sum of all domestic waters decreases to only about 50 m3 / s, which is about ten times less than the average water flows that are formed in Serbia. The third chapter discusses the impact of two scenarios of GSB emissions on changes in climatological and hydrological parameters in Serbia. Important climatological indicators are deteriorating: in both scenarios, temperatures will increase in all seasons, which is a very unfavorable process for both water management and ecological systems. Average precipitation is decreasing, especially in the southern and eastern part of the country. However, much less unfavorable is the fact that the decrease in precipitation will be especially pronounced in the summer, vegetation part of the year, and that the deterioration will be especially large in the southern and eastern part of the country, which have been insufficient so far. This puts all branches of water management in a very unfavorable position, especially irrigation. The consequences on the flow regimes are also very unfavorable. According to both scenarios, the average annual flows on the rivers in the basins of all three Morava, Ibar, Timok, Drina are decreasing. However, the unfavorable distribution of flow reductions during the year is much more unfavorable and more worrying: in winter there is even a certain increase compared to the current values, and the largest reduction is expected in the vegetation part of the year, especially in the months considered so far. low-water - from July to October. It is very unfavorable that the intensity of groundwater renewal is significantly reduced (even over 50%, depending on the part of the country and the period), and in that case mostly in the southern and eastern part of the country. In accordance with these predictions, the fourth chapter discusses the consequences in all water management branches, as well as the measures that must be taken to neutralize or reduce the consequences of these favorable processes. An important conclusion is that in the new circumstances, the future of Serbia will depend on - accumulation with annual flow regulation. Numerous new accumulations are necessary and a table of such facilities is given, the ones that are most necessary. An important conclusion is that in the new circumstances, the future of Serbia will depend on - accumulation with annual flow regulation. Numerous new accumulations are necessary and a table of such facilities is given, the ones that are most necessary. It is required that project documentation be prepared for all of them at the level of General Projects, so that the spatial plans specifically protect all these areas only for those purposes. The same should be done for all sources, especially large ones of regional importance. A conclusion is given on the most important activities that need to be done in order to prepare water management systems in time for functioning in increasingly unfavorable conditions of climate change.