Stabla otkaza kao efikasna metoda za analizu pouzdanosti složenih hidrotehničkih sistema

Abstract

U radu se razmatra mogućnost primene metode stabla otkaza za praćenje pouzdanosti složenih hidrotehničkih sistema. Daju se principi formiranja stabla otkaza, a zatim se analitički aparat Teorije pouzdanosti povezuje sa ovom metodom, korišćenjem elementarnih pravila Bulove algebre. Preporučuje se da se za sve složene hidrotehničke sisteme još u fazi projektovanja formiraju grafovi stabla otkaza, kako bi se unapred definisale slabe tačke sistema i našla odgovarajuća rešenja za njihovo ojačavanje u pogledu pouzdanosti funkcionisanja.

This article deals with application of the fault tree concepts and technique to reliability analysis of water resources systems. Many aspects of the probabilistic effectiveness of water resources system (Operational readiness, assignment reliability, functional suitability) were analysed in Introduction. This three categories of the probabilistic effectiveness can be defined shortly by posing the following three questions: (1) Is water resources system ready for operation, when it is expected to function? (2) Will the system function normally for a given time period, if the answer to the first question was positive? (3) Can the system fulfil the required goals if the answer to the first two questions were positive? Concepts and techniques of fault tree analysis, and basic principles and a formal methodology for fault tree graphics construction of WRS is shown in chapter two. Chapter three systematise certain principal categories of reliability theory, used in WRS planning: reliability and unreliability functions, failure density function, failure - rate function , mean time between failures (MTBF), reliability and availability of restorable systems, repair rate , stationary coefficient of availability A, etc. Methods of the utilisation of fault tree graphics (Boolean indicated cut sets) for quantification of the reliability functions, failure - rate functions, MTBF, availability functions are presented. Some interesting example of fault tree construction and calculation of reliability of complex WRS is considered.