Upravljanje bezbednošću visokih brana u Srbiji

Abstract

Osnovni preduslov za implementaciju ocene bezbednosti visokih brana (OBVB) na teritoriji neke države je precizno definisanje neprekidnog procesa praćenja njihovog ponašanja, uvođenje informatike u ovaj proces i mobilisanje svih učesnika u njemu. Pojam "proces" podrazumeva sve aktivnosti, počev od izrade projekta osmatranja, preko njegove realizacije, obrade podataka, prezentacije rezultata, njihove analize i interpretacije, do ocene stanja osmatranja brana i njihove bezbednosti. Pojam "informatika" obuhvata Baze Podataka (BP), Baze Znanja (BZ) i Generatore Zaključaka (GZ), koje treba oformiti za zvaku visoku branu, pri čemu ih treba međusobno povezati za celu teritoriju Države. Pojam "učesnik" obuhvata: (1) Korisnike brana i njihove asocijacije; (2) Specijalizovane organizacije za osmatranje, obradu i prezentaciju rezultata osmatranja, njihovu analizu i interpretaciju, kao i ocenu stanja osmatranja i bezbednosti visokih brana; (3) Izvršne organe Države, nadležne za bezbednost brana i (4) Kompetentne institucije za stručnu kontrolu rezultata osmatranja, koju vrše za račun Države. U radu je prikazan specifičan i originalan način prevazilaženja odredjenih teškoća, koje se odnose na konkretne uslove vezane za stanje u oblasti bezbednosti brana, koji ovu materiju svrstavaju u tzv. "fuzzy" problematiku, za čije rešavanje nije pronadjen adekvatan uzor ni u domaćoj, ni u medjunarodnoj literaturi. U tom kontekstu je uveden uslovan naziv "Operatori Ekspertnog Sistema" (OES), koji obuhvata: (1) Rizike rušenja brana, od-nosno ugrožavanja bezbednosti nizvodnih područja; (2) Podelu ugroženosti na posrednu i neposrednu i njihove medjusobne veze; (3) Parametre, indekse i stepene posredne ugroženosti; (4) Intenzitete, indekse, stepene i pouzdanost ocene neposredne ugroženosti. Vrednovanje posredne ugroženosti i faktora pouzdanosti ocene neposredne ugroženosti je rešeno prostim zbrajanjem realnih indeksa, bez formalnog ulaženje u materiju ekspertnih sistema. Baza znanja za ocenu neposredne ugroženosti ovog ekspertnog sistema je kreirana korišćenjem tripleta (tria) objekat - atribut - vrednost, pri čemu je kao atribut uzeto "prekoračenje" unapred odredjenih pragova vrednosti rezultata osmatranja, koji predstavljaju objekte, a vrednosti atributa prekoračenje su definisane kao "sumnja", "upozorenje" i "opasnost", uz dopunski uslov uvažavanja dejstva ekstremnih spoljnih uticaja samo za vrednost "upozorenje". U narednoj fazi razvoja ovog ekspertnog sistema planira se izrada korisničkih verzija relacionih baza podataka za svaku visoku branu i njihovo ažuriranje od strane korisnika. Nakon povezivanja računara svih učesnika u procesu upravljanja bezbednošću visokih brana, biće mogućeno upravljanje bezbednošću visokih brana u realnom vremenu, što danas nije moguće, već se sa ocenom bezbednosti kasni više od godinu dana.

The basic condition needed for implementation of Dam Safety Evaluation (DSE) on the territory of one State is the defining of a continuous process of monitoring their behavior during operation, involving the information technology in this process and mobilization of all participants to take part in it. The "Process" comprises all activities, starting from the dam observation design, its implementation, data processing and results presentation, analyzing and interpreting the results obtained, terminating with the evaluation of the state of dam observation and its safety. The "Information technology" involves Data Bases (DB), Knowledge Bases (KB) and Inference Engines (IE), whereas each of them has to be made for each large dam and they have to be mutually related for the whole State territory. The "Participant" includes: (1) Dam Owners and their associations; (2) Specialized Companies for dam monitoring, processing and presentation of observation results, their analysis and interpretation, as well as for evaluation of the dam monitoring state and its safety; (3) Executive Authority of the State, in charge for dam safety on its territory, and (4) Competent institution for checking the results of dam monitoring process, engaged by the State. The paper deals with the specific and genuine way of overcoming specific difficulties related to real conditions of evaluation of dam safety, leading this subject towards the "fuzzy" problems. For solving such problem, no ade-quate methods were found neither in local, nor in foreign periodicals. The so-called "Expert System Operators" (ESO) were introduced, involving the following new expressions: (1) Dam Failure Risks, i. e. the Downstream Regions Hazards; (2) Fragmentation of hazard into two categories, "Indirect" and "Direct" one; (3) Parameters, indices and rates of indirect hazard, and (4) Intensities, indices, rates and confidence factor of direct hazard evaluation. The valorization of indirect hazard and confidence factor of direct hazard evaluation was performed by summation of actually existing indices, without formal application of the expert system theory. The knowledge base for evaluation of direct hazard was created using the "Object - Attribute -Value" triplets, where the Attribute was defined as "exceeding" the specified values of monitoring results, representing the Objects, and the Attribute values were in advance prescribed as: the "doubt", "warning" and "danger". In cases where the "warning" exists, the additional conditions of extreme external loading were introduced. In the next stage of this expert system, the development of the "user versions" of data bases, knowledge bases and inference engines is planed for each existing dam. After netting the computers of all participants in the process of dam safety managing in the unique network, the real time managing of dam safety in the State will be enabled.