Operatori ekspertnog sistema za ocenu bezbednosti brana

Abstract

U radu je prikazan specifičan i originalan način prevazilaženja odredjenih teškoća, koje se odnose na konkretne uslove vezane za stanje u oblasti bez-bednosti brana u Srbiji, koji ovu materiju svrstavaju u tzv. "fuzzy" problematiku. U tom kontekstu je uveden uslovan naziv "operatori ekspertnog sistema", koji obuhvata: (1) Rizike rušenja brana; (2) Podelu ugro-ženosti na posrednu i neposrednu; (3) Parametre, indekse i stepene posredne ugroženosti; (4) Inten-zitete, indekse, stepene i pouzdanost ocene nepo-sredne ugroženosti. Metodologije vrednovanja posred-ne i neposredne ugroženosti razvijene su primenom simbolskog programiranja u paketu ACCESS 2.0, u vidu "pilot" verzija.

The paper deals with the specific and genuine way of overcoming some difficulties related to real conditions of evaluation of dam safety in Serbia, leading this subject towards the "fuzzy" problems. The so-called "expert system operators" were introduced, involving the following new expressions: (1) Dam failure risks; (2) Decomposition of hazard into two categories, "indirect" and "direct" one; (3) Para-meters, indices and rates of indirect hazard, and (4) Intensities, indices, rates and confidence of direct hazard evaluation. Valorization methods of direct and indirect hazard were developed using symbolic programming within ACCESS 2.0 package, as "pilot" versions only.