Implementing a detailed estimation model on housing project prefeasibility studies

Abstract

In this paper, a new approach is presented for the purpose of making prefeasibility studies. It is based on the detailed estimation of costs and durations even though there is no design present at the beginning of the project. Available data is only lot dimensions and urban planning parameters. The new approach is based on the: universal network, empirical formulas for estimating activity quantities and durations, three unit price packages and risk estimation based on Monte Carlo simulations. All research refers to housing projects in Belgrade.

U ovom radu predlaže se novi pristup izradi predinvesticionih studija koji se zasniva na primeni modela detaljne procene troškova i trajanja bez obzira što projektna dokumentacija nije dostupna na početku projekta. Dostupni podaci su samo urbanistički uslovi i veličina parcele. To se postiže formiranjem: univerzalnog dinamičkog plana, empirijskih formula za proračun količina za aktivnosti, tri paketa jediničnih cena, empirijskih formula za procenu trajanja aktivnosti i procena uticaja rizika primenom Monte Carlo simulacija. Sva razmatranja odnose se na projekte izgradnje stambeno-poslovnih objekata u Beogradu.