Improving performance of bucket-type hydrological models in high latitudes with multi-model combination methods: Can we wring water from a stone?
Апстракт
Multi-model combination (averaging) methods (MMCMs) are used to improve the accuracy of hydrological (precipitation-runoff) outputs in simulation or forecasting/prediction modes. In this paper, we examined if the application of MMCMs can improve model performance in reproducing distributions of hydrological signatures, such as annual maxima or minima of varying durations. To this end, ten MMCMs were applied to 29 bucket-type models to simulate runoff in 50 high-latitude catchments. The MMCMs were evaluated by comparing the resulting simulated flows to the reference (i.e., best-performing) individual model, considering various commonly used performance indicators, as well as model performance in reproducing the distributions of signatures. Additionally, we analysed whether (1) the selection of the candidate models, or (2) targeting specific signatures, such as annual maxima or minima, can improve performance of the model combinations. The results suggest that the application of MMCMs ca...n improve accuracy of runoff simulations in terms of traditional performance indicators, but fails to improve performance in reproducing the distributions of signatures. Neither excluding poor-performing models nor applying the MMCMs with the targeted signatures, improves this aspect of model performance. These findings clearly reveal the need for further research aiming at enhancing model performance in reproducing the distributions of hydrological signatures, which is essential for climate-change impact studies.
Кључне речи:
Conceptual hydrological models / Extreme flows / High-latitude catchments / Hydrological signatures / Information theory / Multi-model averagingИзвор:
Journal of Hydrology, 2024, 130829-Издавач:
- Elsevier
Финансирање / пројекти:
- “Reducing uncertainties in hydrological climate change impact research to allow for robust streamflow simulations” supported by the Swedish Research Council (VR starting grant: 2017-04970)
Колекције
Институција/група
GraFarTY - JOUR AU - Todorović, Andrijana AU - Grabs, Thomas AU - Teutschbein, Claudia PY - 2024 UR - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3463 AB - Multi-model combination (averaging) methods (MMCMs) are used to improve the accuracy of hydrological (precipitation-runoff) outputs in simulation or forecasting/prediction modes. In this paper, we examined if the application of MMCMs can improve model performance in reproducing distributions of hydrological signatures, such as annual maxima or minima of varying durations. To this end, ten MMCMs were applied to 29 bucket-type models to simulate runoff in 50 high-latitude catchments. The MMCMs were evaluated by comparing the resulting simulated flows to the reference (i.e., best-performing) individual model, considering various commonly used performance indicators, as well as model performance in reproducing the distributions of signatures. Additionally, we analysed whether (1) the selection of the candidate models, or (2) targeting specific signatures, such as annual maxima or minima, can improve performance of the model combinations. The results suggest that the application of MMCMs can improve accuracy of runoff simulations in terms of traditional performance indicators, but fails to improve performance in reproducing the distributions of signatures. Neither excluding poor-performing models nor applying the MMCMs with the targeted signatures, improves this aspect of model performance. These findings clearly reveal the need for further research aiming at enhancing model performance in reproducing the distributions of hydrological signatures, which is essential for climate-change impact studies. PB - Elsevier T2 - Journal of Hydrology T1 - Improving performance of bucket-type hydrological models in high latitudes with multi-model combination methods: Can we wring water from a stone? SP - 130829 DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130829 ER -
@article{ author = "Todorović, Andrijana and Grabs, Thomas and Teutschbein, Claudia", year = "2024", abstract = "Multi-model combination (averaging) methods (MMCMs) are used to improve the accuracy of hydrological (precipitation-runoff) outputs in simulation or forecasting/prediction modes. In this paper, we examined if the application of MMCMs can improve model performance in reproducing distributions of hydrological signatures, such as annual maxima or minima of varying durations. To this end, ten MMCMs were applied to 29 bucket-type models to simulate runoff in 50 high-latitude catchments. The MMCMs were evaluated by comparing the resulting simulated flows to the reference (i.e., best-performing) individual model, considering various commonly used performance indicators, as well as model performance in reproducing the distributions of signatures. Additionally, we analysed whether (1) the selection of the candidate models, or (2) targeting specific signatures, such as annual maxima or minima, can improve performance of the model combinations. The results suggest that the application of MMCMs can improve accuracy of runoff simulations in terms of traditional performance indicators, but fails to improve performance in reproducing the distributions of signatures. Neither excluding poor-performing models nor applying the MMCMs with the targeted signatures, improves this aspect of model performance. These findings clearly reveal the need for further research aiming at enhancing model performance in reproducing the distributions of hydrological signatures, which is essential for climate-change impact studies.", publisher = "Elsevier", journal = "Journal of Hydrology", title = "Improving performance of bucket-type hydrological models in high latitudes with multi-model combination methods: Can we wring water from a stone?", pages = "130829", doi = "10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130829" }
Todorović, A., Grabs, T.,& Teutschbein, C.. (2024). Improving performance of bucket-type hydrological models in high latitudes with multi-model combination methods: Can we wring water from a stone?. in Journal of Hydrology Elsevier., 130829. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130829
Todorović A, Grabs T, Teutschbein C. Improving performance of bucket-type hydrological models in high latitudes with multi-model combination methods: Can we wring water from a stone?. in Journal of Hydrology. 2024;:130829. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130829 .
Todorović, Andrijana, Grabs, Thomas, Teutschbein, Claudia, "Improving performance of bucket-type hydrological models in high latitudes with multi-model combination methods: Can we wring water from a stone?" in Journal of Hydrology (2024):130829, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130829 . .