Model development for the preliminary cost estimates of road rehabilitation and reconstruction works

Abstract

The average unit project cost for road rehabilitation and reconstruction (RRR) works vary substantially across countries and over time, but variation also exists within the country in the same year due to a number of reasons. In this paper an effort is made to develop a prediction model that could be applied for a wide range of conditions in different countries and that could be applied in road maintenance management systems at strategic level and development of road works programs. The resulting model is made of the variables that contribute significantly to the regression. The variables included in the analyses were chosen in view of their potential explanatory power. The resulting regression model is expected to be useful in the strategic analysis of road networks, including the optimization of road maintenance alternatives. .

Prosečni jedinični troškovi radova u projektima rekonstrukcije i rehabilitacije (RiR) puteva se značajno razlikuju među državama, ali i u okviru različitih projekata u istoj državi, i to usled mnogobrojnih faktora. U okviru ovog rada, formiran je model kojim bi bilo moguće predvideti troškove radova RiR u različitim državama i koji bi mogao da se primeni u analizama u sistemima za upravljanje održavanjem puteva na strateškom nivou i na nivou programiranja radova održavanja. Definisan model je formiran od promenljivih koje značajno doprinose regresiji. Izabrane su one promenljive kojima je moguće što bolje opisati zavisnu veličinu tj. jedinične troškove RiR puteva. Dobijena regresiona zavisnost bi mogla da bude korisna na nivou strateških analiza mreža i optimizacija planiranih radova RiR.