An approach and software for analysis of financial and economic risks in feasibility study preparation

Abstract

Risk is defined as an uncertain event or a condition that, if occurs, could affect project goals. In recent literature the importance of studying uncertainty is underlined, especially in early project phases. In this paper, an approach and software, based on Monte Carlo Analysis, are presented for financial and economic risk analysis in feasibility study preparation. Proposed approach and software can help the decision maker in early project phases and give the basis for project risk management.

Rizik je neizvestan događaj ili stanje koje, ukoliko nastane, može imati pozitivan ili negativan efekat na ciljeve projekta. U novijoj literaturi ističe se važnost proučavanja neizvesnosti, naročito u ranim fazama realizacije projekta. U ovom radu predstavljen je pristup i računarski program za analizu i procenu finansijskih i ekonomskih rizika i neizvesnosti prilikom izrade studije opravdanosti, koji se zasniva na primeni Monte Karlo analize. Upotreba predloženog modela i programa doprinose boljoj informisanosti donosioca odluka u ranim fazama realizacije, te pružaju podlogu za upravljanje projektnim rizicima.