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Metoda pikova - jedan stohastički model zapremina prekoračenja

dc.creatorPavlović, Dragutin
dc.creatorVukmirović, Vojislav
dc.creatorPlavšić, Jasna
dc.creatorDespotović, Jovan
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-19T14:21:34Z
dc.date.available2019-04-19T14:21:34Z
dc.date.issued2014
dc.identifier.issn0352-6852
dc.identifier.urihttp://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/587
dc.description.abstractPeaks-over-threshold method (POT) is the way for analysis of the stochastic structure of extreme hydrological events. For a chosen base flow and for characteristic value obtained form partial hydrographs, the POT method encompasses detection of discrete probability distribution of number of events in chosen time interval and continuous distribution of the exceedance values (peaks). This article presents a stochastic model for the analysis of the base flow exceedance volumes and accompanied cycle times between the ends of the successive exceedaence events. The model is based on the Markov's discreteds model principles and the assumptions about the form of the process intensity functions. The number of occurrence discrete distributions are discussed according to chosen forms of the time and volume intensity functions. The continuous distributions of the base flow exceedance characteristic values are modelled for the base series of values and their aggregation. The distribution of the maximum exceedance volume over the base flow in chosen time interval is formulated. The article presents an application of the suggested procedures on the mean daily flows hydrographs from the Bezdan gauging station on the Danube river.en
dc.description.abstractMetoda pikova je način analize ekstremnih hidroloških vrednosti kojim se iz rapoloživih podataka-hidrograma dolazi do osobina stohastičke strukture pojave. Analizira se diskretna raspodela broja javljanja veličine u zadatom intervalu vremena t i kontinualna raspodela vrednosti veličine prekoračenja baznog protoka. U ovom radu koristi se stohastički model za analizu zapremine prekoračenja baznog protoka i odgovarajućih trajanja ciklusa između prekoračenja. Model je zasnovan na principima prekidnih procesa Markova i pretpostavkama o prirodi funkcija intenziteta procesa. Analiziraju se moguće diskretne raspodele broja javljanja kao posledice izabranih oblika funkcija vremenskog i zapreminskog intenziteta procesa. Modelira se neprekidna raspodela veličina prekoračenja, za osnovne nizove i agregacije (udruživanja) njihovih članova. Data je formulacija ovih raspodela u funkciji raspodele broja javljanja. Navodi se izraz za funkciju raspodele maksimalne vrednosti zapremine prekoračenja baznog protoka u intervalu vremena t. Uz tekst su dati primeri analize podataka sa hidrometrijske stanice Bezdan na Dunavu.sr
dc.publisherUniverzitet u Novom Sadu - Građevinski fakultet, Subotica
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.sourceZbornik radova Građevinskog fakulteta, Subotica
dc.subjectPOT methoden
dc.subjectflood volumesen
dc.subjectstochastic modelen
dc.subjectmetoda pikovasr
dc.subjectzapremine prekoračenjasr
dc.subjectstohastički modelsr
dc.titlePeaks over threshold method: One stochastic model for flood volumesen
dc.titleMetoda pikova - jedan stohastički model zapremina prekoračenjasr
dc.typearticle
dc.rights.licenseBY-SA
dc.citation.epage91
dc.citation.issue24
dc.citation.other(24): 85-91
dc.citation.rankM52
dc.citation.spage85
dc.identifier.doi10.14415/zbornikGFS24.008
dc.identifier.fulltexthttp://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs//bitstream/id/3994/585.pdf
dc.identifier.rcubconv_446
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion


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