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Modelling of bridge elements deterioration for Serbian bridge inventory

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Authors
Mašović, Snežana
Hajdin, Rade
Article (Published version)
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Abstract
In order to improve bridge management practice for public roads in Serbia, a deterioration model for bridge elements was developed using condition data collected over the last 20 years. The distribution of condition data over condition states allows the estimation of reasonably reliable deterioration models even for advanced deterioration. Based on the literature review, discrete-time Markov chains were chosen for this purpose. Estimating the transition probabilities of discrete Markov chains is straightforward when the time between condition records on bridge elements closely matches the chosen time interval for the Markov chain, which is not the case with condition data in Serbia. To overcome this problem, an expectation maximisation (EM) algorithm has been applied to estimate the transition probabilities. It is shown here that the EM algorithm is a sound and robust method, which can yield a reasonable deterioration model even if limited data are available. In addition, the EM is use...d to determine the overall bridge deterioration using existing agency rules to derive bridge rating from element condition states.

Keywords:
bridges / deterioration / estimation / Markov chains / data processing
Source:
Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 2014, 10, 8, 976-987
Publisher:
  • Taylor and Francis Ltd.

DOI: 10.1080/15732479.2013.774426

ISSN: 1573-2479

WoS: 000336384300004

Scopus: 2-s2.0-84901285381
[ Google Scholar ]
29
18
URI
https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/604
Collections
  • Radovi istraživača / Researcher's publications
  • Катедра за материјале и конструкције
  • Катедра за управљање пројектима у грађевинарству
Institution/Community
GraFar
TY  - JOUR
AU  - Mašović, Snežana
AU  - Hajdin, Rade
PY  - 2014
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/604
AB  - In order to improve bridge management practice for public roads in Serbia, a deterioration model for bridge elements was developed using condition data collected over the last 20 years. The distribution of condition data over condition states allows the estimation of reasonably reliable deterioration models even for advanced deterioration. Based on the literature review, discrete-time Markov chains were chosen for this purpose. Estimating the transition probabilities of discrete Markov chains is straightforward when the time between condition records on bridge elements closely matches the chosen time interval for the Markov chain, which is not the case with condition data in Serbia. To overcome this problem, an expectation maximisation (EM) algorithm has been applied to estimate the transition probabilities. It is shown here that the EM algorithm is a sound and robust method, which can yield a reasonable deterioration model even if limited data are available. In addition, the EM is used to determine the overall bridge deterioration using existing agency rules to derive bridge rating from element condition states.
PB  - Taylor and Francis Ltd.
T2  - Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
T1  - Modelling of bridge elements deterioration for Serbian bridge inventory
EP  - 987
IS  - 8
SP  - 976
VL  - 10
DO  - 10.1080/15732479.2013.774426
UR  - conv_1672
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Mašović, Snežana and Hajdin, Rade",
year = "2014",
abstract = "In order to improve bridge management practice for public roads in Serbia, a deterioration model for bridge elements was developed using condition data collected over the last 20 years. The distribution of condition data over condition states allows the estimation of reasonably reliable deterioration models even for advanced deterioration. Based on the literature review, discrete-time Markov chains were chosen for this purpose. Estimating the transition probabilities of discrete Markov chains is straightforward when the time between condition records on bridge elements closely matches the chosen time interval for the Markov chain, which is not the case with condition data in Serbia. To overcome this problem, an expectation maximisation (EM) algorithm has been applied to estimate the transition probabilities. It is shown here that the EM algorithm is a sound and robust method, which can yield a reasonable deterioration model even if limited data are available. In addition, the EM is used to determine the overall bridge deterioration using existing agency rules to derive bridge rating from element condition states.",
publisher = "Taylor and Francis Ltd.",
journal = "Structure and Infrastructure Engineering",
title = "Modelling of bridge elements deterioration for Serbian bridge inventory",
pages = "987-976",
number = "8",
volume = "10",
doi = "10.1080/15732479.2013.774426",
url = "conv_1672"
}
Mašović, S.,& Hajdin, R.. (2014). Modelling of bridge elements deterioration for Serbian bridge inventory. in Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
Taylor and Francis Ltd.., 10(8), 976-987.
https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2013.774426
conv_1672
Mašović S, Hajdin R. Modelling of bridge elements deterioration for Serbian bridge inventory. in Structure and Infrastructure Engineering. 2014;10(8):976-987.
doi:10.1080/15732479.2013.774426
conv_1672 .
Mašović, Snežana, Hajdin, Rade, "Modelling of bridge elements deterioration for Serbian bridge inventory" in Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 10, no. 8 (2014):976-987,
https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2013.774426 .,
conv_1672 .

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