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Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961-2009)

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2014
Authors
Luković, Jelena
Bajat, Branislav
Blagojević, Dragan
Kilibarda, Milan
Article (Published version)
Metadata
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Abstract
This paper examines a spatial pattern of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends in Serbia. The study used data from 63 weather stations between the period of 1961-2009. The rainfall series was examined by applying the nonparametric method of the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's method to determine the significance and magnitude of the trends. Significant trends have not been detected for the whole country at an annual scale. Seasonal trends at the confidence level of 97.5 %, however, indicate a slight decrease in winter (5 stations out of 63) and spring (7 stations out of 63) precipitation and an increase in autumn precipitation (10 stations out of 63). Results for monthly rainfall trends also generally showed a nonsignificant trend with the exception of a negative trend in May (6 stations out of 63) and positive trend for October (9 stations out of 63). Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate a random spatial pattern of rainfall trends on annual, seasonal an...d monthly timescales with exceptions for March, June and November. Overall, results suggest that only weak, mostly nonsignificant trends are present in Serbia in the period 1961-2009.

Keywords:
Spatial pattern / Rainfall trend / Spatial autocorrelation / Serbia
Source:
Regional Environmental Change, 2014, 14, 5, 1789-1799
Publisher:
  • Springer Verlag
Projects:
  • Studying climate change and its influence on environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation (RS-43007)
  • The role and implementation of the national spatial plan and regional development documents in renewal of strategic research, thinking and governance in Serbia (RS-47014)
  • Spatial, environmental, energy and social aspects of developing settlements and climate change - mutual impacts (RS-36035)
  • Serbian geodetic infrastructure advancement for the needs of a modern state survey (RS-36020)

DOI: 10.1007/s10113-013-0459-x

ISSN: 1436-3798

WoS: 000342455400009

Scopus: 2-s2.0-84907708808
[ Google Scholar ]
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18
URI
http://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/616
Collections
  • Radovi istraživača / Researcher's publications
  • Катедра за геодезију и геоинформатику
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