Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010
Abstract
The spatial analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010 was carried out using mean monthly data from 64 meteorological stations. Change year detection was achieved using cumulative sum charts. The magnitude of trends was derived from the slopes of linear trends using the least square method. The same formalism of least square method was used to assess the statistical significance of the determined trends. Maps of temperature trends were generated by applying a spatial regression method to visualize the detected tendencies. The obtained results indicate a negative temperature trend for the period before the change year except for winter and a more pronounced positive trend after the change year. Besides being more pronounced, the vast majority of trends after the change year were also clearly statistically significant. Our estimate of the average temperature trend over Serbia is in agreement with those obtained at the global and European scal...e. Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate an apparent random spatial pattern of temperature trends across the Serbia for both periods before and after the change year.
Source:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2015, 121, 1-2, 289-301Publisher:
- Springer-Verlag Wien
Funding / projects:
- Studying climate change and its influence on environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation (RS-43007)
- The role and implementation of the national spatial plan and regional development documents in renewal of strategic research, thinking and governance in Serbia (RS-47014)
- Spatial, environmental, energy and social aspects of developing settlements and climate change - mutual impacts (RS-36035)
- Serbian geodetic infrastructure advancement for the needs of a modern state survey (RS-36020)
- Meteorological extremes and climatic change in Serbia (RS-176013)
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7
ISSN: 0177-798X
WoS: 000356539300025
Scopus: 2-s2.0-84931568166
Institution/Community
GraFarTY - JOUR AU - Bajat, Branislav AU - Blagojević, Dragan AU - Kilibarda, Milan AU - Luković, Jelena AU - Tosić, Ivana PY - 2015 UR - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/721 AB - The spatial analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010 was carried out using mean monthly data from 64 meteorological stations. Change year detection was achieved using cumulative sum charts. The magnitude of trends was derived from the slopes of linear trends using the least square method. The same formalism of least square method was used to assess the statistical significance of the determined trends. Maps of temperature trends were generated by applying a spatial regression method to visualize the detected tendencies. The obtained results indicate a negative temperature trend for the period before the change year except for winter and a more pronounced positive trend after the change year. Besides being more pronounced, the vast majority of trends after the change year were also clearly statistically significant. Our estimate of the average temperature trend over Serbia is in agreement with those obtained at the global and European scale. Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate an apparent random spatial pattern of temperature trends across the Serbia for both periods before and after the change year. PB - Springer-Verlag Wien T2 - Theoretical and Applied Climatology T1 - Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010 EP - 301 IS - 1-2 SP - 289 VL - 121 DO - 10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7 ER -
@article{ author = "Bajat, Branislav and Blagojević, Dragan and Kilibarda, Milan and Luković, Jelena and Tosić, Ivana", year = "2015", abstract = "The spatial analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010 was carried out using mean monthly data from 64 meteorological stations. Change year detection was achieved using cumulative sum charts. The magnitude of trends was derived from the slopes of linear trends using the least square method. The same formalism of least square method was used to assess the statistical significance of the determined trends. Maps of temperature trends were generated by applying a spatial regression method to visualize the detected tendencies. The obtained results indicate a negative temperature trend for the period before the change year except for winter and a more pronounced positive trend after the change year. Besides being more pronounced, the vast majority of trends after the change year were also clearly statistically significant. Our estimate of the average temperature trend over Serbia is in agreement with those obtained at the global and European scale. Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate an apparent random spatial pattern of temperature trends across the Serbia for both periods before and after the change year.", publisher = "Springer-Verlag Wien", journal = "Theoretical and Applied Climatology", title = "Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010", pages = "301-289", number = "1-2", volume = "121", doi = "10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7" }
Bajat, B., Blagojević, D., Kilibarda, M., Luković, J.,& Tosić, I.. (2015). Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010. in Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer-Verlag Wien., 121(1-2), 289-301. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7
Bajat B, Blagojević D, Kilibarda M, Luković J, Tosić I. Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010. in Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2015;121(1-2):289-301. doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7 .
Bajat, Branislav, Blagojević, Dragan, Kilibarda, Milan, Luković, Jelena, Tosić, Ivana, "Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010" in Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 121, no. 1-2 (2015):289-301, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7 . .