The spatial analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010 was carried out using mean monthly data from 64 meteorological stations. Change year detection was achieved using cumulative sum charts. The magnitude of trends was derived from the slopes of linear trends using the least square method. The same formalism of least square method was used to assess the statistical significance of the determined trends. Maps of temperature trends were generated by applying a spatial regression method to visualize the detected tendencies. The obtained results indicate a negative temperature trend for the period before the change year except for winter and a more pronounced positive trend after the change year. Besides being more pronounced, the vast majority of trends after the change year were also clearly statistically significant. Our estimate of the average temperature trend over Serbia is in agreement with those obtained at the global and European scal...e. Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate an apparent random spatial pattern of temperature trends across the Serbia for both periods before and after the change year.
Source:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2015, 121, 1-2, 289-301
TY - JOUR
AU - Bajat, Branislav
AU - Blagojević, Dragan
AU - Kilibarda, Milan
AU - Luković, Jelena
AU - Tosić, Ivana
PY - 2015
UR - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/721
AB - The spatial analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010 was carried out using mean monthly data from 64 meteorological stations. Change year detection was achieved using cumulative sum charts. The magnitude of trends was derived from the slopes of linear trends using the least square method. The same formalism of least square method was used to assess the statistical significance of the determined trends. Maps of temperature trends were generated by applying a spatial regression method to visualize the detected tendencies. The obtained results indicate a negative temperature trend for the period before the change year except for winter and a more pronounced positive trend after the change year. Besides being more pronounced, the vast majority of trends after the change year were also clearly statistically significant. Our estimate of the average temperature trend over Serbia is in agreement with those obtained at the global and European scale. Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate an apparent random spatial pattern of temperature trends across the Serbia for both periods before and after the change year.
PB - Springer-Verlag Wien
T2 - Theoretical and Applied Climatology
T1 - Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010
EP - 301
IS - 1-2
SP - 289
VL - 121
DO - 10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7
ER -
@article{
author = "Bajat, Branislav and Blagojević, Dragan and Kilibarda, Milan and Luković, Jelena and Tosić, Ivana",
year = "2015",
abstract = "The spatial analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010 was carried out using mean monthly data from 64 meteorological stations. Change year detection was achieved using cumulative sum charts. The magnitude of trends was derived from the slopes of linear trends using the least square method. The same formalism of least square method was used to assess the statistical significance of the determined trends. Maps of temperature trends were generated by applying a spatial regression method to visualize the detected tendencies. The obtained results indicate a negative temperature trend for the period before the change year except for winter and a more pronounced positive trend after the change year. Besides being more pronounced, the vast majority of trends after the change year were also clearly statistically significant. Our estimate of the average temperature trend over Serbia is in agreement with those obtained at the global and European scale. Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I) indicate an apparent random spatial pattern of temperature trends across the Serbia for both periods before and after the change year.",
publisher = "Springer-Verlag Wien",
journal = "Theoretical and Applied Climatology",
title = "Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010",
pages = "301-289",
number = "1-2",
volume = "121",
doi = "10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7"
}
Bajat, B., Blagojević, D., Kilibarda, M., Luković, J.,& Tosić, I.. (2015). Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010. in Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Springer-Verlag Wien., 121(1-2), 289-301.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7
Bajat B, Blagojević D, Kilibarda M, Luković J, Tosić I. Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010. in Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2015;121(1-2):289-301.
doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7 .
Bajat, Branislav, Blagojević, Dragan, Kilibarda, Milan, Luković, Jelena, Tosić, Ivana, "Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010" in Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 121, no. 1-2 (2015):289-301,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7 . .
