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dc.creatorTodorović, Andrijana
dc.creatorPlavšić, Jasna
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-19T14:25:30Z
dc.date.available2019-04-19T14:25:30Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.identifier.issn2040-2244
dc.identifier.urihttps://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/764
dc.description.abstractAssessment of climate change (CC) impact on hydrologic regime requires a calibrated rainfall-runoff model, defined by its structure and parameters. The parameter values depend, inter alia, on the calibration period. This paper investigates influence of the calibration period on parameter values, model efficiency and streamflow projections under CC. To this end, a conceptual HBV-light model of the Kolubara River catchment in Serbia is calibrated against flows observed within 5 consecutive wettest, driest, warmest and coldest years and in the complete record period. The optimised parameters reveal high sensitivity towards calibration period. Hydrologic projections under climate change are developed by employing (1) five hydrologic models with outputs of one GCM-RCM chain (Global and Regional Climate Models) and (2) one hydrologic model with five GCM-RCM outputs. Sign and magnitude of change in projected variables, compared to the corresponding values simulated over the baseline period, vary with the hydrologic model used. This variability is comparable in magnitude to variability stemming from climate models. Models calibrated over periods with similar precipitation as the projected ones may result in less uncertain projections, while warmer climate is not expected to contribute to the uncertainty in flow projections. Simulations over prolonged dry periods are expected to be uncertain.en
dc.publisherIWA Publishing
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MESTD/Technological Development (TD or TR)/37005/RS//
dc.rightsrestrictedAccess
dc.sourceJournal of Water and Climate Change
dc.subjectclimate changeen
dc.subjecthydrologic modellingen
dc.subjectKolubara Riveren
dc.subjectparameter transferabilityen
dc.titleThe role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessmenten
dc.typearticle
dc.rights.licenseARR
dc.citation.epage28
dc.citation.issue1
dc.citation.other7(1): 16-28
dc.citation.rankM23
dc.citation.spage16
dc.citation.volume7
dc.identifier.doi10.2166/wcc.2015.086
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-84964467519
dc.identifier.wos000374410900002
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion


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