Application of AHP and WoE methods for landslide susceptibility assessment on Krupanj municipality

Abstract

This paper is an example of landslide susceptibility assessment in Krupanj municipality in western Serbia, using two different multicriteria methods: Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Weight of Evidence (WoE). AHP is based on quantified expert judgement on the individual importance of conditioning factors, as geological, morphological and environmental proxies for landsliding. WoE is data-driven, i.e. it uses conditional probability of landslide occurrence to grade conditioning factors by their importance. Validation was performed by cross-referencing with an existing landslide inventory, which was made by field mapping and interpretation of satellite images. Both models have relatively good performance, but WoE has slightly better validation parameters. These results are a solid background for general overview of the landslide susceptibility distribution at municipality scale, and can be successfully used for further landslide risk assessment or large scale planning.

U radu su prikazani rezultati dve metode procene podložnosti terena na kliženje: višekriterijumske AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) metode i metode uslovne verovatnoće, odnosno metode težine dokaza WoE (Weight of Evidence) primenjene na područje opštine Krupanj u zapadnoj Srbiji. Validacija dobijenih rezultata procene izvršena je za svaki dobijeni model poređenjem sa realnim podacima evidentiranih pojava nestabilnosti dobijenih terenskim kartiranjem i analizom satelitskih snimaka visoke rezolucije. Nakon toga izvršena je uporedna analiza dobijenih rezultata.Oba modela pokazuju zadovoljavajuću tačnost, gde je statistička metoda dala nešto preciznije rezultate. Rezultati procene podložnosti predstavljaju dobru osnovu za procenu relativnog rizika od procesa kliženja i podlogu za izradu planskih dokumenata opštine Krupanj.