Show simple item record

dc.creatorStojković, Milan
dc.creatorKostić, Srđan
dc.creatorProhaska, Stevan
dc.creatorPlavšić, Jasna
dc.creatorTripković, Vesna
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-19T14:27:09Z
dc.date.available2019-04-19T14:27:09Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.identifier.issn0920-4741
dc.identifier.urihttp://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/835
dc.description.abstractThe authors propose a new approach for trend assessment that takes into account long-term periodicity of annual flows. In particular, analysis is performed of annual flows recorded at the locations of 30 operating and designed hydropower plants (HPPs) in Serbia, in order to assess the current and future water availability for hydropower generation. The composite annual trend is determined by sliding a fixed time window of 30 years along the observed time series with a one-year time step. Such a linear moving window (LMW) approach enables the identification of the flow trend as a median of all values for each time step. Significant trend harmonics are determined using discrete spectral analysis. The results show an alternation of upward and downward trend phases of different durations, namely: 6787, 33-43 and 21-29 years. On the other hand, the results of the Mann-Kendall test indicate a monotonic downward trend at the studied sites in the Drina River Basin, while statistically insignificant trends are noted at other river basins. The Mann-Kendall test with the Theil-Sen estimator also implies a downward and statistically insignificant flow trend after the observed period, whereas the LMW approach indicates a probable trend increase at all the examined sites. The proposed approach can be used to predict annual flows in order to establish long-term water management plans at hydropower plants.en
dc.publisherSpringer Netherlands
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MESTD/Technological Development (TD or TR)/37013/RS//
dc.rightsrestrictedAccess
dc.sourceWater Resources Management
dc.subjectAnnual flow trenden
dc.subjectLong-term periodicityen
dc.subjectHydropower planten
dc.subjectWater management plansen
dc.subjectSouth-east European riversen
dc.titleA New Approach for Trend Assessment of Annual Streamflows: a Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Serbiaen
dc.typearticle
dc.rights.licenseARR
dc.citation.epage1103
dc.citation.issue4
dc.citation.other31(4): 1089-1103
dc.citation.rankM21
dc.citation.spage1089
dc.citation.volume31
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11269-017-1583-z
dc.identifier.rcubconv_1884
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85011799044
dc.identifier.wos000397923700001
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record