The role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessment
Apstrakt
Assessment of climate change (CC) impact on hydrologic regime requires a calibrated rainfall-runoff model, defined by its structure and parameters. The parameter values depend, inter alia, on the calibration period. This paper investigates influence of the calibration period on parameter values, model efficiency and streamflow projections under CC. To this end, a conceptual HBV-light model of the Kolubara River catchment in Serbia is calibrated against flows observed within 5 consecutive wettest, driest, warmest and coldest years and in the complete record period. The optimised parameters reveal high sensitivity towards calibration period. Hydrologic projections under climate change are developed by employing (1) five hydrologic models with outputs of one GCM-RCM chain (Global and Regional Climate Models) and (2) one hydrologic model with five GCM-RCM outputs. Sign and magnitude of change in projected variables, compared to the corresponding values simulated over the baseline period, v...ary with the hydrologic model used. This variability is comparable in magnitude to variability stemming from climate models. Models calibrated over periods with similar precipitation as the projected ones may result in less uncertain projections, while warmer climate is not expected to contribute to the uncertainty in flow projections. Simulations over prolonged dry periods are expected to be uncertain.
Ključne reči:
climate change / hydrologic modelling / Kolubara River / parameter transferabilityIzvor:
Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2016, 7, 1, 16-28Izdavač:
- IWA Publishing
Finansiranje / projekti:
- Ocena uticaja klimatskih promena na vodne resurse Srbije (RS-MESTD-Technological Development (TD or TR)-37005)
DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2015.086
ISSN: 2040-2244
WoS: 000374410900002
Scopus: 2-s2.0-84964467519
Kolekcije
Institucija/grupa
GraFarTY - JOUR AU - Todorović, Andrijana AU - Plavšić, Jasna PY - 2016 UR - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/764 AB - Assessment of climate change (CC) impact on hydrologic regime requires a calibrated rainfall-runoff model, defined by its structure and parameters. The parameter values depend, inter alia, on the calibration period. This paper investigates influence of the calibration period on parameter values, model efficiency and streamflow projections under CC. To this end, a conceptual HBV-light model of the Kolubara River catchment in Serbia is calibrated against flows observed within 5 consecutive wettest, driest, warmest and coldest years and in the complete record period. The optimised parameters reveal high sensitivity towards calibration period. Hydrologic projections under climate change are developed by employing (1) five hydrologic models with outputs of one GCM-RCM chain (Global and Regional Climate Models) and (2) one hydrologic model with five GCM-RCM outputs. Sign and magnitude of change in projected variables, compared to the corresponding values simulated over the baseline period, vary with the hydrologic model used. This variability is comparable in magnitude to variability stemming from climate models. Models calibrated over periods with similar precipitation as the projected ones may result in less uncertain projections, while warmer climate is not expected to contribute to the uncertainty in flow projections. Simulations over prolonged dry periods are expected to be uncertain. PB - IWA Publishing T2 - Journal of Water and Climate Change T1 - The role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessment EP - 28 IS - 1 SP - 16 VL - 7 DO - 10.2166/wcc.2015.086 ER -
@article{ author = "Todorović, Andrijana and Plavšić, Jasna", year = "2016", abstract = "Assessment of climate change (CC) impact on hydrologic regime requires a calibrated rainfall-runoff model, defined by its structure and parameters. The parameter values depend, inter alia, on the calibration period. This paper investigates influence of the calibration period on parameter values, model efficiency and streamflow projections under CC. To this end, a conceptual HBV-light model of the Kolubara River catchment in Serbia is calibrated against flows observed within 5 consecutive wettest, driest, warmest and coldest years and in the complete record period. The optimised parameters reveal high sensitivity towards calibration period. Hydrologic projections under climate change are developed by employing (1) five hydrologic models with outputs of one GCM-RCM chain (Global and Regional Climate Models) and (2) one hydrologic model with five GCM-RCM outputs. Sign and magnitude of change in projected variables, compared to the corresponding values simulated over the baseline period, vary with the hydrologic model used. This variability is comparable in magnitude to variability stemming from climate models. Models calibrated over periods with similar precipitation as the projected ones may result in less uncertain projections, while warmer climate is not expected to contribute to the uncertainty in flow projections. Simulations over prolonged dry periods are expected to be uncertain.", publisher = "IWA Publishing", journal = "Journal of Water and Climate Change", title = "The role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessment", pages = "28-16", number = "1", volume = "7", doi = "10.2166/wcc.2015.086" }
Todorović, A.,& Plavšić, J.. (2016). The role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessment. in Journal of Water and Climate Change IWA Publishing., 7(1), 16-28. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2015.086
Todorović A, Plavšić J. The role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessment. in Journal of Water and Climate Change. 2016;7(1):16-28. doi:10.2166/wcc.2015.086 .
Todorović, Andrijana, Plavšić, Jasna, "The role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessment" in Journal of Water and Climate Change, 7, no. 1 (2016):16-28, https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2015.086 . .