Milivojević, Nikola

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  • Milivojević, Nikola (21)
  • Milivojević, NIkola (1)

Author's Bibliography

Forecasting River Water Levels Influenced by Hydropower Plant Daily Operations using Artificial Neural Networks

Milašinović, Miloš; Marjanović, Dušan; Prodanović, Dušan; Milivojević, Nikola

(2023)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Marjanović, Dušan
AU  - Prodanović, Dušan
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2023
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3120
AB  - Multipurpose water systems are used to deal with multiple objectives related to the usage of water for daily human activities. These activities are often conflicted which creates a challenging water management task. To provide reliable water resources management decision support tools for successful forecasting of hydraulic data (river flows and water levels) are essential. This research presents an approach for forecasting river water levels influenced by hydropower plant operations using artificial neural networks. This approach estimates hourly water level fluctuations at the control location using the water levels and hydropower plant discharge data as input. This tool can be used for fast assessment of different hydropower plant operation plans and help in choosing the optimal one. This water level forecasting procedure is applied and tested on the Iron Gate water system, placed on the Danube River, to deal with multiple objectives in water system management (hydropower production, flood protection, and inland navigation) and shows promising results.
C3  - 2nd Serbian International Conference on Applied Artificial Intelligence (SICAAI), Kragujevac, Serbia, May 19-20, 2023
T1  - Forecasting River Water Levels Influenced by Hydropower Plant Daily Operations using Artificial Neural Networks
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_3120
ER  - 
@conference{
author = "Milašinović, Miloš and Marjanović, Dušan and Prodanović, Dušan and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2023",
abstract = "Multipurpose water systems are used to deal with multiple objectives related to the usage of water for daily human activities. These activities are often conflicted which creates a challenging water management task. To provide reliable water resources management decision support tools for successful forecasting of hydraulic data (river flows and water levels) are essential. This research presents an approach for forecasting river water levels influenced by hydropower plant operations using artificial neural networks. This approach estimates hourly water level fluctuations at the control location using the water levels and hydropower plant discharge data as input. This tool can be used for fast assessment of different hydropower plant operation plans and help in choosing the optimal one. This water level forecasting procedure is applied and tested on the Iron Gate water system, placed on the Danube River, to deal with multiple objectives in water system management (hydropower production, flood protection, and inland navigation) and shows promising results.",
journal = "2nd Serbian International Conference on Applied Artificial Intelligence (SICAAI), Kragujevac, Serbia, May 19-20, 2023",
title = "Forecasting River Water Levels Influenced by Hydropower Plant Daily Operations using Artificial Neural Networks",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_3120"
}
Milašinović, M., Marjanović, D., Prodanović, D.,& Milivojević, N.. (2023). Forecasting River Water Levels Influenced by Hydropower Plant Daily Operations using Artificial Neural Networks. in 2nd Serbian International Conference on Applied Artificial Intelligence (SICAAI), Kragujevac, Serbia, May 19-20, 2023.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_3120
Milašinović M, Marjanović D, Prodanović D, Milivojević N. Forecasting River Water Levels Influenced by Hydropower Plant Daily Operations using Artificial Neural Networks. in 2nd Serbian International Conference on Applied Artificial Intelligence (SICAAI), Kragujevac, Serbia, May 19-20, 2023. 2023;.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_3120 .
Milašinović, Miloš, Marjanović, Dušan, Prodanović, Dušan, Milivojević, Nikola, "Forecasting River Water Levels Influenced by Hydropower Plant Daily Operations using Artificial Neural Networks" in 2nd Serbian International Conference on Applied Artificial Intelligence (SICAAI), Kragujevac, Serbia, May 19-20, 2023 (2023),
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_3120 .

Assessment of water resources system resilience under hazardous events using system dynamic approach and artificial neural networks

Stojković, Milan; Marjanović, Dušan; Rakić, Dragan; Ivetić, Damjan; Simić, Višnja; Milivojević, Nikola; Trajković, Slaviša

(IWA Publishing, 2023)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Marjanović, Dušan
AU  - Rakić, Dragan
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Simić, Višnja
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
AU  - Trajković, Slaviša
PY  - 2023
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3040
AB  - The objective of this research is to propose a novel framework for assessing the consequences of hazardous events on a water resources system using dynamic resilience. Two types of hazardous events were considered: a severe flood event and an earthquake. Given that one or both hazards have occurred and considering the intensity of those events, the main characteristics of flood
 dynamic resilience were evaluated. The framework utilizes an artificial neural network (ANN) to estimate dynamic resilience. The ANN was trained using a large, generated dataset that included a wide range of situations, from relatively mild hazards to severe ones. A case study was performed on the Pirot water system (Serbia). Dynamic resilience was derived from the developed system dynamics model alongside the hazardous models implemented. The most extreme hazard combination results in the robustness of 0.04, indicating a combination of an earthquake with a significant magnitude and a flood hydrograph with a low frequency of occurrence. In the case of moderate hazards, the system robustness has a median value of 0.2 and the rapidity median value of 162 h. The ANN’s efficacy was quantified using the average relative error metric which equals 2.14% and 1.77% for robustness and rapidity, respectively.
PB  - IWA Publishing
T2  - Journal of Hydroinformatics
T1  - Assessment of water resources system resilience under hazardous events using system dynamic approach and artificial neural networks
DO  - 10.2166/hydro.2023.069
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Stojković, Milan and Marjanović, Dušan and Rakić, Dragan and Ivetić, Damjan and Simić, Višnja and Milivojević, Nikola and Trajković, Slaviša",
year = "2023",
abstract = "The objective of this research is to propose a novel framework for assessing the consequences of hazardous events on a water resources system using dynamic resilience. Two types of hazardous events were considered: a severe flood event and an earthquake. Given that one or both hazards have occurred and considering the intensity of those events, the main characteristics of flood
 dynamic resilience were evaluated. The framework utilizes an artificial neural network (ANN) to estimate dynamic resilience. The ANN was trained using a large, generated dataset that included a wide range of situations, from relatively mild hazards to severe ones. A case study was performed on the Pirot water system (Serbia). Dynamic resilience was derived from the developed system dynamics model alongside the hazardous models implemented. The most extreme hazard combination results in the robustness of 0.04, indicating a combination of an earthquake with a significant magnitude and a flood hydrograph with a low frequency of occurrence. In the case of moderate hazards, the system robustness has a median value of 0.2 and the rapidity median value of 162 h. The ANN’s efficacy was quantified using the average relative error metric which equals 2.14% and 1.77% for robustness and rapidity, respectively.",
publisher = "IWA Publishing",
journal = "Journal of Hydroinformatics",
title = "Assessment of water resources system resilience under hazardous events using system dynamic approach and artificial neural networks",
doi = "10.2166/hydro.2023.069"
}
Stojković, M., Marjanović, D., Rakić, D., Ivetić, D., Simić, V., Milivojević, N.,& Trajković, S.. (2023). Assessment of water resources system resilience under hazardous events using system dynamic approach and artificial neural networks. in Journal of Hydroinformatics
IWA Publishing..
https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2023.069
Stojković M, Marjanović D, Rakić D, Ivetić D, Simić V, Milivojević N, Trajković S. Assessment of water resources system resilience under hazardous events using system dynamic approach and artificial neural networks. in Journal of Hydroinformatics. 2023;.
doi:10.2166/hydro.2023.069 .
Stojković, Milan, Marjanović, Dušan, Rakić, Dragan, Ivetić, Damjan, Simić, Višnja, Milivojević, Nikola, Trajković, Slaviša, "Assessment of water resources system resilience under hazardous events using system dynamic approach and artificial neural networks" in Journal of Hydroinformatics (2023),
https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2023.069 . .
7

Physics informed neural networks for 1D flood routing

Bojović, Filip; Milašinović, Miloš; Jovanović, Branka; Krstić, Lazar; Stojanović, Boban; Ivanović, Miloš; Prodanović, Dušan; Milivojević, Nikola

(2022)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Bojović, Filip
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Jovanović, Branka
AU  - Krstić, Lazar
AU  - Stojanović, Boban
AU  - Ivanović, Miloš
AU  - Prodanović, Dušan
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2771
AB  - Machine learning methods have been widely and successfully applied in hydrological problems. Most of the methods, such as artificial neural networks, have been focused on estimating hydrological data based on observation over time. Even though these models provide good results, it can be observed that results become unreliable when the training dataset is small or when input data is significantly out of range compared to the training data. Therefore, a new approach is presented, in which artificial neural networks are trained to satisfy physical laws. This is conducted by a novel method called physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), in which physical principles are embedded in a custom loss function. This paper presents the application of physics informed neural networks for solving 1D flood wave propagation in open channels. The research has shown promising results.
C3  - 1st Serbian International Conference on Applied Artificial Intelligence (SICAAI)
T1  - Physics informed neural networks for 1D flood routing
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2771
ER  - 
@conference{
author = "Bojović, Filip and Milašinović, Miloš and Jovanović, Branka and Krstić, Lazar and Stojanović, Boban and Ivanović, Miloš and Prodanović, Dušan and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2022",
abstract = "Machine learning methods have been widely and successfully applied in hydrological problems. Most of the methods, such as artificial neural networks, have been focused on estimating hydrological data based on observation over time. Even though these models provide good results, it can be observed that results become unreliable when the training dataset is small or when input data is significantly out of range compared to the training data. Therefore, a new approach is presented, in which artificial neural networks are trained to satisfy physical laws. This is conducted by a novel method called physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), in which physical principles are embedded in a custom loss function. This paper presents the application of physics informed neural networks for solving 1D flood wave propagation in open channels. The research has shown promising results.",
journal = "1st Serbian International Conference on Applied Artificial Intelligence (SICAAI)",
title = "Physics informed neural networks for 1D flood routing",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2771"
}
Bojović, F., Milašinović, M., Jovanović, B., Krstić, L., Stojanović, B., Ivanović, M., Prodanović, D.,& Milivojević, N.. (2022). Physics informed neural networks for 1D flood routing. in 1st Serbian International Conference on Applied Artificial Intelligence (SICAAI).
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2771
Bojović F, Milašinović M, Jovanović B, Krstić L, Stojanović B, Ivanović M, Prodanović D, Milivojević N. Physics informed neural networks for 1D flood routing. in 1st Serbian International Conference on Applied Artificial Intelligence (SICAAI). 2022;.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2771 .
Bojović, Filip, Milašinović, Miloš, Jovanović, Branka, Krstić, Lazar, Stojanović, Boban, Ivanović, Miloš, Prodanović, Dušan, Milivojević, Nikola, "Physics informed neural networks for 1D flood routing" in 1st Serbian International Conference on Applied Artificial Intelligence (SICAAI) (2022),
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2771 .

CTDA: Control Theory based Data Assimilation – metoda za brzu asimilaciju podataka u modelima otvorenih tokova

Milašinović, Miloš; Prodanović, Dušan; Zindović, Budo; Stojanović, Boban; Milivojević, Nikola

(Univerzitet u Beogradu, 2022)

TY  - GEN
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Prodanović, Dušan
AU  - Zindović, Budo
AU  - Stojanović, Boban
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2831
PB  - Univerzitet u Beogradu
T1  - CTDA: Control Theory based Data Assimilation – metoda za brzu asimilaciju podataka u modelima otvorenih tokova
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2831
ER  - 
@misc{
author = "Milašinović, Miloš and Prodanović, Dušan and Zindović, Budo and Stojanović, Boban and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2022",
publisher = "Univerzitet u Beogradu",
title = "CTDA: Control Theory based Data Assimilation – metoda za brzu asimilaciju podataka u modelima otvorenih tokova",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2831"
}
Milašinović, M., Prodanović, D., Zindović, B., Stojanović, B.,& Milivojević, N.. (2022). CTDA: Control Theory based Data Assimilation – metoda za brzu asimilaciju podataka u modelima otvorenih tokova. 
Univerzitet u Beogradu..
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2831
Milašinović M, Prodanović D, Zindović B, Stojanović B, Milivojević N. CTDA: Control Theory based Data Assimilation – metoda za brzu asimilaciju podataka u modelima otvorenih tokova. 2022;.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2831 .
Milašinović, Miloš, Prodanović, Dušan, Zindović, Budo, Stojanović, Boban, Milivojević, Nikola, "CTDA: Control Theory based Data Assimilation – metoda za brzu asimilaciju podataka u modelima otvorenih tokova" (2022),
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2831 .

Control theory-based data assimilation for open channel hydraulic models: tuning PID controllers using multi-objective optimization

Milašinović, Miloš; Prodanović, Dušan; Stanić, Miloš; Zindović, Budo; Stojanović, Boban; Milivojević, Nikola

(IWA Publishing, 2022)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Prodanović, Dušan
AU  - Stanić, Miloš
AU  - Zindović, Budo
AU  - Stojanović, Boban
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2693
AB  - Reliable water resources management requires decision support tools to successfully forecast hydraulic data (stage and flow hydrographs). Even though data-driven methods are nowadays trendy to apply, they still fail to provide reliable forecasts during extreme periods due to a lack of training data. Therefore, model-driven forecasting is still needed. However, the model-driven forecasting approach is affected by numerous uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions. To improve the real-time model's operation, it can be regularly updated using measured data in the data assimilation (DA) procedure. Widely used DA techniques are computationally expensive, which reduce their real-time applications. Previous research shows that tailor-made, time-efficient DA methods based on the control theory could be used instead. This paper presents further insights into the control theory-based DA for 1D hydraulic models. This method uses Proportional–Integrative–Derivative (PID) controllers to assimilate computed water levels and observed data. This paper describes the two-stage PID controllers’ tuning procedure. Multi-objective optimization by Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) was used to determine optimal parameters for PID controllers. The proposed tuning procedure is tested on a hydraulic model used as a decision support tool for the transboundary Iron Gate 1 hydropower system on the Danube River, showing that the average discrepancy between modeled and observed water levels can be less than 0.05 m for more than 97% of assimilation window.
PB  - IWA Publishing
T2  - Journal of Hydroinformatics
T1  - Control theory-based data assimilation for open channel hydraulic models: tuning PID controllers using multi-objective optimization
IS  - 4
VL  - 24
DO  - 10.2166/hydro.2022.034
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Milašinović, Miloš and Prodanović, Dušan and Stanić, Miloš and Zindović, Budo and Stojanović, Boban and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2022",
abstract = "Reliable water resources management requires decision support tools to successfully forecast hydraulic data (stage and flow hydrographs). Even though data-driven methods are nowadays trendy to apply, they still fail to provide reliable forecasts during extreme periods due to a lack of training data. Therefore, model-driven forecasting is still needed. However, the model-driven forecasting approach is affected by numerous uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions. To improve the real-time model's operation, it can be regularly updated using measured data in the data assimilation (DA) procedure. Widely used DA techniques are computationally expensive, which reduce their real-time applications. Previous research shows that tailor-made, time-efficient DA methods based on the control theory could be used instead. This paper presents further insights into the control theory-based DA for 1D hydraulic models. This method uses Proportional–Integrative–Derivative (PID) controllers to assimilate computed water levels and observed data. This paper describes the two-stage PID controllers’ tuning procedure. Multi-objective optimization by Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) was used to determine optimal parameters for PID controllers. The proposed tuning procedure is tested on a hydraulic model used as a decision support tool for the transboundary Iron Gate 1 hydropower system on the Danube River, showing that the average discrepancy between modeled and observed water levels can be less than 0.05 m for more than 97% of assimilation window.",
publisher = "IWA Publishing",
journal = "Journal of Hydroinformatics",
title = "Control theory-based data assimilation for open channel hydraulic models: tuning PID controllers using multi-objective optimization",
number = "4",
volume = "24",
doi = "10.2166/hydro.2022.034"
}
Milašinović, M., Prodanović, D., Stanić, M., Zindović, B., Stojanović, B.,& Milivojević, N.. (2022). Control theory-based data assimilation for open channel hydraulic models: tuning PID controllers using multi-objective optimization. in Journal of Hydroinformatics
IWA Publishing., 24(4).
https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2022.034
Milašinović M, Prodanović D, Stanić M, Zindović B, Stojanović B, Milivojević N. Control theory-based data assimilation for open channel hydraulic models: tuning PID controllers using multi-objective optimization. in Journal of Hydroinformatics. 2022;24(4).
doi:10.2166/hydro.2022.034 .
Milašinović, Miloš, Prodanović, Dušan, Stanić, Miloš, Zindović, Budo, Stojanović, Boban, Milivojević, Nikola, "Control theory-based data assimilation for open channel hydraulic models: tuning PID controllers using multi-objective optimization" in Journal of Hydroinformatics, 24, no. 4 (2022),
https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2022.034 . .
2

Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions

Ivetić, Damjan; Milašinović, Miloš; Stojković, Milan; Šotić, Aleksandar; Charbonnier, Nicolas; Milivojević, Nikola

(MDPI, 2022)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Šotić, Aleksandar
AU  - Charbonnier, Nicolas
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2673
AB  - Dam and reservoir systems (DRSs) are crucial aspects of the infrastructure necessary for reliable water resource management. Nowadays, DRSs are being increasingly affected by numerous natural and anthropogenic impacts (aging and outdated infrastructure, climate change, natural hazards, global crises, etc.). Hence, additional pressure on DRS management is being applied as DRSs must be operated in adverse operating conditions, outside of their design envelopes. Since there is no practical way to redesign DRSs to meet all possible adverse conditions, efficient simulation tools are necessary for various “what-if” analyses. A system dynamics (SD) approach can be used, as it has shown the capacity to comprehend the intrinsic system complexity. In this paper, an 11-step framework for the dynamic modelling of reduced functionality in a DRS and the emulation of the system operation in adverse conditions is proposed. The framework covers the system model design, input scenario generation, system simulation, and performance evaluation steps. A focus is placed on the steps related to system decomposition, the identification of failure-indicative parameters, the definition and implementation of failure functions in the subsystem dynamic models, and dynamic failure modelling. Through these steps, a novel procedure is proposed for the dynamic modelling of the DRS subsystems’ failures (reduced functionality), common in the operation of DRSs under adverse conditions. For each subsystem prone to failure, failure-indicative parameters are identified. Failure functions employing generic functionality indicators, with values spanning from 0 to 1, are suggested to modify the values of the failure-indicative parameters in simulations and emulate the component failure impacts on DRS operation. Possibilities for modelling failure modes for different subsystems, varying in nature, duration, and magnitude are discussed. Potential physical damage to the system components, increases in measurement uncertainty, and the lack of the spare parts during periods of global crisis are applied as disturbances to the Pirot DRS case study to illustrate the possibilities of the suggested framework’s application for DRS failure modelling. It was concluded that the proposed framework allowed for the detection of severe impacts on system performance, emphasizing the need for DRS dynamic failure modelling in system analysis.
PB  - MDPI
T2  - Water MDPI
T1  - Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions
VL  - 14(10)
DO  - 10.3390/w14101549
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Ivetić, Damjan and Milašinović, Miloš and Stojković, Milan and Šotić, Aleksandar and Charbonnier, Nicolas and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2022",
abstract = "Dam and reservoir systems (DRSs) are crucial aspects of the infrastructure necessary for reliable water resource management. Nowadays, DRSs are being increasingly affected by numerous natural and anthropogenic impacts (aging and outdated infrastructure, climate change, natural hazards, global crises, etc.). Hence, additional pressure on DRS management is being applied as DRSs must be operated in adverse operating conditions, outside of their design envelopes. Since there is no practical way to redesign DRSs to meet all possible adverse conditions, efficient simulation tools are necessary for various “what-if” analyses. A system dynamics (SD) approach can be used, as it has shown the capacity to comprehend the intrinsic system complexity. In this paper, an 11-step framework for the dynamic modelling of reduced functionality in a DRS and the emulation of the system operation in adverse conditions is proposed. The framework covers the system model design, input scenario generation, system simulation, and performance evaluation steps. A focus is placed on the steps related to system decomposition, the identification of failure-indicative parameters, the definition and implementation of failure functions in the subsystem dynamic models, and dynamic failure modelling. Through these steps, a novel procedure is proposed for the dynamic modelling of the DRS subsystems’ failures (reduced functionality), common in the operation of DRSs under adverse conditions. For each subsystem prone to failure, failure-indicative parameters are identified. Failure functions employing generic functionality indicators, with values spanning from 0 to 1, are suggested to modify the values of the failure-indicative parameters in simulations and emulate the component failure impacts on DRS operation. Possibilities for modelling failure modes for different subsystems, varying in nature, duration, and magnitude are discussed. Potential physical damage to the system components, increases in measurement uncertainty, and the lack of the spare parts during periods of global crisis are applied as disturbances to the Pirot DRS case study to illustrate the possibilities of the suggested framework’s application for DRS failure modelling. It was concluded that the proposed framework allowed for the detection of severe impacts on system performance, emphasizing the need for DRS dynamic failure modelling in system analysis.",
publisher = "MDPI",
journal = "Water MDPI",
title = "Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions",
volume = "14(10)",
doi = "10.3390/w14101549"
}
Ivetić, D., Milašinović, M., Stojković, M., Šotić, A., Charbonnier, N.,& Milivojević, N.. (2022). Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions. in Water MDPI
MDPI., 14(10).
https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101549
Ivetić D, Milašinović M, Stojković M, Šotić A, Charbonnier N, Milivojević N. Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions. in Water MDPI. 2022;14(10).
doi:10.3390/w14101549 .
Ivetić, Damjan, Milašinović, Miloš, Stojković, Milan, Šotić, Aleksandar, Charbonnier, Nicolas, Milivojević, Nikola, "Framework for Dynamic Modelling of the Dam and Reservoir System Reduced Functionality in Adverse Operating Conditions" in Water MDPI, 14(10) (2022),
https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101549 . .
5

Uncertainty assessment of flow measurements at Iron Gate 2

Ivetić, Damjan; Prodanović, Dušan; Milivojević, Nikola; Vojt, Predrag

(International group for hydraulic efficiency measurement (IGHEM), 2022)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Prodanović, Dušan
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
AU  - Vojt, Predrag
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2834
AB  - To allow for the reliable hydraulic efficiency estimation of the tubular turbines before and after their revitalization at the Hydro Power Plant (HPP) Iron Gate 2, a novel flow measurement system was designed and tested on two turbines. In this paper the details of used approach for the assessment of the flow measurement uncertainty are presented. The presented methodology is tailored for specific application of the Velocity – Area flow measurements at HPP, based on the utilization of electro-magnetic velocity meters (EMVM), instead of traditional propeller current meters. Although the procedure for the assessment of the flow measurement uncertainty in similar cases of low-head plants and short intakes can be found in the literature, the adverse flow conditions, novel EMVM sensors and the specific operating modes have instigated a need for modifications and improvements of the procedure. Assuming analogy between the current meters and EM meters, the IEC 60041 and ISO 3354 procedure for flow rate measurement uncertainty assessment was used as a template, with implemented moderate changes accounting for the features of the applied measurement. Selected flow measurements from the 2020. campaign are analyzed, with an emphasis on the variation of the magnitudes of the measurement uncertainty components.
PB  - International group for hydraulic efficiency measurement (IGHEM)
C3  - 13th International conference on hydraulic efficiency measurement, Grenoble, France
T1  - Uncertainty assessment of flow measurements at Iron Gate 2
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2834
ER  - 
@conference{
author = "Ivetić, Damjan and Prodanović, Dušan and Milivojević, Nikola and Vojt, Predrag",
year = "2022",
abstract = "To allow for the reliable hydraulic efficiency estimation of the tubular turbines before and after their revitalization at the Hydro Power Plant (HPP) Iron Gate 2, a novel flow measurement system was designed and tested on two turbines. In this paper the details of used approach for the assessment of the flow measurement uncertainty are presented. The presented methodology is tailored for specific application of the Velocity – Area flow measurements at HPP, based on the utilization of electro-magnetic velocity meters (EMVM), instead of traditional propeller current meters. Although the procedure for the assessment of the flow measurement uncertainty in similar cases of low-head plants and short intakes can be found in the literature, the adverse flow conditions, novel EMVM sensors and the specific operating modes have instigated a need for modifications and improvements of the procedure. Assuming analogy between the current meters and EM meters, the IEC 60041 and ISO 3354 procedure for flow rate measurement uncertainty assessment was used as a template, with implemented moderate changes accounting for the features of the applied measurement. Selected flow measurements from the 2020. campaign are analyzed, with an emphasis on the variation of the magnitudes of the measurement uncertainty components.",
publisher = "International group for hydraulic efficiency measurement (IGHEM)",
journal = "13th International conference on hydraulic efficiency measurement, Grenoble, France",
title = "Uncertainty assessment of flow measurements at Iron Gate 2",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2834"
}
Ivetić, D., Prodanović, D., Milivojević, N.,& Vojt, P.. (2022). Uncertainty assessment of flow measurements at Iron Gate 2. in 13th International conference on hydraulic efficiency measurement, Grenoble, France
International group for hydraulic efficiency measurement (IGHEM)..
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2834
Ivetić D, Prodanović D, Milivojević N, Vojt P. Uncertainty assessment of flow measurements at Iron Gate 2. in 13th International conference on hydraulic efficiency measurement, Grenoble, France. 2022;.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2834 .
Ivetić, Damjan, Prodanović, Dušan, Milivojević, Nikola, Vojt, Predrag, "Uncertainty assessment of flow measurements at Iron Gate 2" in 13th International conference on hydraulic efficiency measurement, Grenoble, France (2022),
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2834 .

Flow measurement methodology for low head and short intake bulb turbines - Iron Gate 2 case

Prodanović, Dušan; Ivetić, Damjan; Milivojević, Nikola; Vojt, Predrag

(International group for hydraulic efficiency measurement (IGHEM), 2022)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Prodanović, Dušan
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
AU  - Vojt, Predrag
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2833
AB  - Flow measurement of low head turbines, with short intakes like bulb turbines is challenging since there is no “regular” cross-section with fully developed velocity profile. In most situations the flow data during field turbine acceptance tests are obtained using the index method, with flow coefficients transferred from physical model tests done in the laboratory. In the non-standard situations, with adverse flow conditions this may lead to unpredicted flow rate uncertainty. This paper presents the used methodology and results of flow measurement at inlets of two bulb turbines of Hydro Power Plant (HPP) Iron Gate 2 (Danube river). Turbines are Kaplan, with low head (2.5 – 12.5 m), 27 MW and maximal flow rate 420 m3/s.
Due to HPP’s disposition the inflow angle (in a “horizontal” plane and in respect to the turbine axis) can be up to 400. Even reverse flow directions in upper regions of cross-section can occur.  The movable 14.5x3.1 m steel frame, shaped to minimize flow disturbances was used at the intake of turbine, upstream of the trash rack, to traverse the inflow cross section 14.5x26 m. The 15 spherical 3D electromagnetic velocity meters capable of bi-directional measurements were mounted on the frame, while redundant measurement were made using 2 ADVs. Two measurement strategies were used: incremental with 18 profiles and 10 min averaging time at each profile and continuous using constant lifting speed of 0.05 m/s. Uncertainty assessment procedure yielded discharge measurement uncertainties over 1 % for incremental, and up to 5 % for continuous traversing.
PB  - International group for hydraulic efficiency measurement (IGHEM)
C3  - 13th International conference on hydraulic efficiency measurement, Grenoble, France
T1  - Flow measurement methodology for low head and short intake bulb turbines - Iron Gate 2 case
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2833
ER  - 
@conference{
author = "Prodanović, Dušan and Ivetić, Damjan and Milivojević, Nikola and Vojt, Predrag",
year = "2022",
abstract = "Flow measurement of low head turbines, with short intakes like bulb turbines is challenging since there is no “regular” cross-section with fully developed velocity profile. In most situations the flow data during field turbine acceptance tests are obtained using the index method, with flow coefficients transferred from physical model tests done in the laboratory. In the non-standard situations, with adverse flow conditions this may lead to unpredicted flow rate uncertainty. This paper presents the used methodology and results of flow measurement at inlets of two bulb turbines of Hydro Power Plant (HPP) Iron Gate 2 (Danube river). Turbines are Kaplan, with low head (2.5 – 12.5 m), 27 MW and maximal flow rate 420 m3/s.
Due to HPP’s disposition the inflow angle (in a “horizontal” plane and in respect to the turbine axis) can be up to 400. Even reverse flow directions in upper regions of cross-section can occur.  The movable 14.5x3.1 m steel frame, shaped to minimize flow disturbances was used at the intake of turbine, upstream of the trash rack, to traverse the inflow cross section 14.5x26 m. The 15 spherical 3D electromagnetic velocity meters capable of bi-directional measurements were mounted on the frame, while redundant measurement were made using 2 ADVs. Two measurement strategies were used: incremental with 18 profiles and 10 min averaging time at each profile and continuous using constant lifting speed of 0.05 m/s. Uncertainty assessment procedure yielded discharge measurement uncertainties over 1 % for incremental, and up to 5 % for continuous traversing.",
publisher = "International group for hydraulic efficiency measurement (IGHEM)",
journal = "13th International conference on hydraulic efficiency measurement, Grenoble, France",
title = "Flow measurement methodology for low head and short intake bulb turbines - Iron Gate 2 case",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2833"
}
Prodanović, D., Ivetić, D., Milivojević, N.,& Vojt, P.. (2022). Flow measurement methodology for low head and short intake bulb turbines - Iron Gate 2 case. in 13th International conference on hydraulic efficiency measurement, Grenoble, France
International group for hydraulic efficiency measurement (IGHEM)..
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2833
Prodanović D, Ivetić D, Milivojević N, Vojt P. Flow measurement methodology for low head and short intake bulb turbines - Iron Gate 2 case. in 13th International conference on hydraulic efficiency measurement, Grenoble, France. 2022;.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2833 .
Prodanović, Dušan, Ivetić, Damjan, Milivojević, Nikola, Vojt, Predrag, "Flow measurement methodology for low head and short intake bulb turbines - Iron Gate 2 case" in 13th International conference on hydraulic efficiency measurement, Grenoble, France (2022),
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2833 .

General platform for hydro-information systems – a review of concept

Milivojević, Nikola; Milivojević, Vladimir; Tripković, Vesna; Prodanović, Dušan; Marjanović, Dušan

(Jaroslav Černi Water Institute, 2022)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
AU  - Milivojević, Vladimir
AU  - Tripković, Vesna
AU  - Prodanović, Dušan
AU  - Marjanović, Dušan
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2832
AB  - This paper provides insight into the Institute's long-standing engagement in the design and implementation of hydroinformatics systems in Serbia and the region. The introduction provides a definition of the hydroinformatics system and different areas of application, as well as an overview of the best practices in the world. An overview of the general platform that was created based on experience in the development of different systems has been presented here. We have described the functionalities integrated into a single software platform based on mathematical models and computational services. Various practical examples of application by the Institute are presented with the specifics of implementation in line with the purpose and characteristics of the studied systems. The conclusion highlights the role of applied hydroinformatics systems and the effects of application by users. Possible further development and implementation directions in water management and hydropower systems in Serbia and the region have been also presented.
PB  - Jaroslav Černi Water Institute
C3  - Contemporary water management: challenges and research directions
T1  - General platform for hydro-information systems – a review of concept
EP  - 267
SP  - 249
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2832
ER  - 
@conference{
author = "Milivojević, Nikola and Milivojević, Vladimir and Tripković, Vesna and Prodanović, Dušan and Marjanović, Dušan",
year = "2022",
abstract = "This paper provides insight into the Institute's long-standing engagement in the design and implementation of hydroinformatics systems in Serbia and the region. The introduction provides a definition of the hydroinformatics system and different areas of application, as well as an overview of the best practices in the world. An overview of the general platform that was created based on experience in the development of different systems has been presented here. We have described the functionalities integrated into a single software platform based on mathematical models and computational services. Various practical examples of application by the Institute are presented with the specifics of implementation in line with the purpose and characteristics of the studied systems. The conclusion highlights the role of applied hydroinformatics systems and the effects of application by users. Possible further development and implementation directions in water management and hydropower systems in Serbia and the region have been also presented.",
publisher = "Jaroslav Černi Water Institute",
journal = "Contemporary water management: challenges and research directions",
title = "General platform for hydro-information systems – a review of concept",
pages = "267-249",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2832"
}
Milivojević, N., Milivojević, V., Tripković, V., Prodanović, D.,& Marjanović, D.. (2022). General platform for hydro-information systems – a review of concept. in Contemporary water management: challenges and research directions
Jaroslav Černi Water Institute., 249-267.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2832
Milivojević N, Milivojević V, Tripković V, Prodanović D, Marjanović D. General platform for hydro-information systems – a review of concept. in Contemporary water management: challenges and research directions. 2022;:249-267.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2832 .
Milivojević, Nikola, Milivojević, Vladimir, Tripković, Vesna, Prodanović, Dušan, Marjanović, Dušan, "General platform for hydro-information systems – a review of concept" in Contemporary water management: challenges and research directions (2022):249-267,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2832 .

Failure Assessment of Embankment Dam Elements: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System

Rakić, Dragan; Stojković, Milan; Ivetić, Damjan; Živković, Miroslav; Milivojević, Nikola

(MDPI, 2022)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Rakić, Dragan
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Živković, Miroslav
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2672
AB  - The paper presents a functionality investigation of the key dam elements based on finite element analysis. A detailed analysis of filtration processes, dam strength, and the surrounding rock mass was conducted. Dam elements whose potential damage could jeopardize the normal functioning of the embankment dam have been identified. A particular emphasis was placed on the analysis of dam elements that have been identified as weak points. A numerical analysis of the impact of individual grout curtain zone failure on leakage under the dam body, a strength analysis of the overflow section, as well as the analysis of the slope stability that can compromise the functioning of the spillway have been performed. To analyze the partial stability of individual structural elements, a new measure of local stability was introduced as the remaining load-bearing capacity. As a case study, the Zavoj dam, which is a part of the Pirot reservoir system in the Republic of Serbia, was used. Investigation revealed that local damage to the grout curtain will not significantly increase leakage under the dam body, the overflow section is one of the most robust elements of the dam, but the slope above the spillway can compromise the functioning of the overflow and thus the safety of the entire dam. Based on the analysis of the results of the remaining load-bearing capacity, the dependence of the spillway capacity on earthquake intensity has been defined. The established relationship represents a surrogate model for further assessment of dynamic resilience of the complex multipurpose reservoir system, within the scope of the advanced reservoir system management.
PB  - MDPI
T2  - Applied sciences MDPI
T1  - Failure Assessment of Embankment Dam Elements: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System
VL  - 12(2)
DO  - 10.3390/app12020558
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Rakić, Dragan and Stojković, Milan and Ivetić, Damjan and Živković, Miroslav and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2022",
abstract = "The paper presents a functionality investigation of the key dam elements based on finite element analysis. A detailed analysis of filtration processes, dam strength, and the surrounding rock mass was conducted. Dam elements whose potential damage could jeopardize the normal functioning of the embankment dam have been identified. A particular emphasis was placed on the analysis of dam elements that have been identified as weak points. A numerical analysis of the impact of individual grout curtain zone failure on leakage under the dam body, a strength analysis of the overflow section, as well as the analysis of the slope stability that can compromise the functioning of the spillway have been performed. To analyze the partial stability of individual structural elements, a new measure of local stability was introduced as the remaining load-bearing capacity. As a case study, the Zavoj dam, which is a part of the Pirot reservoir system in the Republic of Serbia, was used. Investigation revealed that local damage to the grout curtain will not significantly increase leakage under the dam body, the overflow section is one of the most robust elements of the dam, but the slope above the spillway can compromise the functioning of the overflow and thus the safety of the entire dam. Based on the analysis of the results of the remaining load-bearing capacity, the dependence of the spillway capacity on earthquake intensity has been defined. The established relationship represents a surrogate model for further assessment of dynamic resilience of the complex multipurpose reservoir system, within the scope of the advanced reservoir system management.",
publisher = "MDPI",
journal = "Applied sciences MDPI",
title = "Failure Assessment of Embankment Dam Elements: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System",
volume = "12(2)",
doi = "10.3390/app12020558"
}
Rakić, D., Stojković, M., Ivetić, D., Živković, M.,& Milivojević, N.. (2022). Failure Assessment of Embankment Dam Elements: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System. in Applied sciences MDPI
MDPI., 12(2).
https://doi.org/10.3390/app12020558
Rakić D, Stojković M, Ivetić D, Živković M, Milivojević N. Failure Assessment of Embankment Dam Elements: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System. in Applied sciences MDPI. 2022;12(2).
doi:10.3390/app12020558 .
Rakić, Dragan, Stojković, Milan, Ivetić, Damjan, Živković, Miroslav, Milivojević, Nikola, "Failure Assessment of Embankment Dam Elements: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System" in Applied sciences MDPI, 12(2) (2022),
https://doi.org/10.3390/app12020558 . .
6

Sistem za merenje protoka na ulazima u cevne turbine na bazi elektromagnetnih senzora brzine

Prodanović, Dušan; Ivetić, Damjan; Milivojević, Nikola; Vojt, Predrag; Cvitkovac, Mile

(2021)


                                            

                                            
Prodanović, D., Ivetić, D., Milivojević, N., Vojt, P.,& Cvitkovac, M.. (2021). Sistem za merenje protoka na ulazima u cevne turbine na bazi elektromagnetnih senzora brzine. in Investitor: Elektroprivreda Srbije.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_3319
Prodanović D, Ivetić D, Milivojević N, Vojt P, Cvitkovac M. Sistem za merenje protoka na ulazima u cevne turbine na bazi elektromagnetnih senzora brzine. in Investitor: Elektroprivreda Srbije. 2021;.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_3319 .
Prodanović, Dušan, Ivetić, Damjan, Milivojević, Nikola, Vojt, Predrag, Cvitkovac, Mile, "Sistem za merenje protoka na ulazima u cevne turbine na bazi elektromagnetnih senzora brzine" in Investitor: Elektroprivreda Srbije (2021),
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_3319 .

Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System

Ignjatović, Lazar; Stojković, Milan; Ivetić, Damjan; Milašinović, Miloš; Milivojević, Nikola

(MDPI, 2021)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ignjatović, Lazar
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2021
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2454
AB  - The objective of this research is to introduce a novel framework to quantify the risk of
the reservoir system outside the design envelope, taking into account the risks related to floodprotection and hydro-energy generation under unfavourable reservoir element conditions (system
element failures) and hazardous situations within the environment (flood event). To analyze water
system behavior in adverse conditions, a system analysis approach is used, which is founded
upon the system dynamics model with a causal loop. The capability of the system in performing
the intended functionality can be quantified using the traditional static measures like reliability,
resilience and vulnerability, or dynamic resilience. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment
of a multi-parameter dynamic resilience is introduced. The multi-parameter dynamic resilience
envelops the hydropower and flood-protection resilience, as two opposing demands in the reservoir
operation regime. A case study of a Pirot reservoir, in the Republic of Serbia, is used. To estimate
the multi -parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system, a hydrological model, and a
system dynamic simulation model with an inner control loop, is developed. The inner control loop
provides the relation between the hydropower generation and flood-protection. The hydrological
model is calibrated and generated climate inputs are used to simulate the long-term flow sequences.
The most severe flood event period is extracted to be used as the input for the system dynamics
simulations. The system performance for five different scenarios with various multi failure events
(e.g., generator failure, segment gate failure on the spillway, leakage from reservoir and water supply
tunnel failure due to earthquake) are presented using the novel concept of the explicit modeling of the
component failures through element functionality indicators. Based on the outputs from the system
dynamics model, system performance is determined and, later, hydropower and flood protection
resilience. Then, multi-parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system is estimated and
compared with the traditional static measures (reliability). Discrepancy between the drop between
multi-parameter resilience (from 0.851 to 0.935) and reliability (from 0.993 to 1) shows that static
measure underestimates the risk to the water system. Thus, the results from this research show that
multi-parameter dynamic resilience, as an indicator, can provide additional insight compared to the
traditional static measures, leading to identification of the vulnerable elements of a complex reservoir system. Additionally, it is shown that the proposed explicit modeling of system components failure
can be used to reflect the drop of the overall system functionality
PB  - MDPI
T2  - Water
T1  - Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System
IS  - 22
VL  - 13
DO  - 10.3390/w13223157
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Ignjatović, Lazar and Stojković, Milan and Ivetić, Damjan and Milašinović, Miloš and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2021",
abstract = "The objective of this research is to introduce a novel framework to quantify the risk of
the reservoir system outside the design envelope, taking into account the risks related to floodprotection and hydro-energy generation under unfavourable reservoir element conditions (system
element failures) and hazardous situations within the environment (flood event). To analyze water
system behavior in adverse conditions, a system analysis approach is used, which is founded
upon the system dynamics model with a causal loop. The capability of the system in performing
the intended functionality can be quantified using the traditional static measures like reliability,
resilience and vulnerability, or dynamic resilience. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment
of a multi-parameter dynamic resilience is introduced. The multi-parameter dynamic resilience
envelops the hydropower and flood-protection resilience, as two opposing demands in the reservoir
operation regime. A case study of a Pirot reservoir, in the Republic of Serbia, is used. To estimate
the multi -parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system, a hydrological model, and a
system dynamic simulation model with an inner control loop, is developed. The inner control loop
provides the relation between the hydropower generation and flood-protection. The hydrological
model is calibrated and generated climate inputs are used to simulate the long-term flow sequences.
The most severe flood event period is extracted to be used as the input for the system dynamics
simulations. The system performance for five different scenarios with various multi failure events
(e.g., generator failure, segment gate failure on the spillway, leakage from reservoir and water supply
tunnel failure due to earthquake) are presented using the novel concept of the explicit modeling of the
component failures through element functionality indicators. Based on the outputs from the system
dynamics model, system performance is determined and, later, hydropower and flood protection
resilience. Then, multi-parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system is estimated and
compared with the traditional static measures (reliability). Discrepancy between the drop between
multi-parameter resilience (from 0.851 to 0.935) and reliability (from 0.993 to 1) shows that static
measure underestimates the risk to the water system. Thus, the results from this research show that
multi-parameter dynamic resilience, as an indicator, can provide additional insight compared to the
traditional static measures, leading to identification of the vulnerable elements of a complex reservoir system. Additionally, it is shown that the proposed explicit modeling of system components failure
can be used to reflect the drop of the overall system functionality",
publisher = "MDPI",
journal = "Water",
title = "Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System",
number = "22",
volume = "13",
doi = "10.3390/w13223157"
}
Ignjatović, L., Stojković, M., Ivetić, D., Milašinović, M.,& Milivojević, N.. (2021). Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System. in Water
MDPI., 13(22).
https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223157
Ignjatović L, Stojković M, Ivetić D, Milašinović M, Milivojević N. Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System. in Water. 2021;13(22).
doi:10.3390/w13223157 .
Ignjatović, Lazar, Stojković, Milan, Ivetić, Damjan, Milašinović, Miloš, Milivojević, Nikola, "Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System" in Water, 13, no. 22 (2021),
https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223157 . .
11

Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System

Ignjatović, Lazar; Stojković, Milan; Ivetić, Damjan; Milašinović, Miloš; Milivojević, Nikola

(MDPI, 2021)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ignjatović, Lazar
AU  - Stojković, Milan
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2021
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2671
AB  - The objective of this research is to introduce a novel framework to quantify the risk of the reservoir system outside the design envelope, taking into account the risks related to flood-protection and hydro-energy generation under unfavourable reservoir element conditions (system element failures) and hazardous situations within the environment (flood event). To analyze water system behavior in adverse conditions, a system analysis approach is used, which is founded upon the system dynamics model with a causal loop. The capability of the system in performing the intended functionality can be quantified using the traditional static measures like reliability, resilience and vulnerability, or dynamic resilience. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment of a multi-parameter dynamic resilience is introduced. The multi-parameter dynamic resilience envelops the hydropower and flood-protection resilience, as two opposing demands in the reservoir operation regime. A case study of a Pirot reservoir, in the Republic of Serbia, is used. To estimate the multi -parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system, a hydrological model, and a system dynamic simulation model with an inner control loop, is developed. The inner control loop provides the relation between the hydropower generation and flood-protection. The hydrological model is calibrated and generated climate inputs are used to simulate the long-term flow sequences. The most severe flood event period is extracted to be used as the input for the system dynamics simulations. The system performance for five different scenarios with various multi failure events (e.g., generator failure, segment gate failure on the spillway, leakage from reservoir and water supply tunnel failure due to earthquake) are presented using the novel concept of the explicit modeling of the component failures through element functionality indicators. Based on the outputs from the system dynamics model, system performance is determined and, later, hydropower and flood protection resilience. Then, multi-parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system is estimated and compared with the traditional static measures (reliability). Discrepancy between the drop between multi-parameter resilience (from 0.851 to 0.935) and reliability (from 0.993 to 1) shows that static measure underestimates the risk to the water system. Thus, the results from this research show that multi-parameter dynamic resilience, as an indicator, can provide additional insight compared to the traditional static measures, leading to identification of the vulnerable elements of a complex reservoir system. Additionally, it is shown that the proposed explicit modeling of system components failure can be used to reflect the drop of the overall system functionality.
PB  - MDPI
T2  - Water MDPI
T1  - Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System
VL  - 13(22)
DO  - 10.3390/w13223157
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Ignjatović, Lazar and Stojković, Milan and Ivetić, Damjan and Milašinović, Miloš and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2021",
abstract = "The objective of this research is to introduce a novel framework to quantify the risk of the reservoir system outside the design envelope, taking into account the risks related to flood-protection and hydro-energy generation under unfavourable reservoir element conditions (system element failures) and hazardous situations within the environment (flood event). To analyze water system behavior in adverse conditions, a system analysis approach is used, which is founded upon the system dynamics model with a causal loop. The capability of the system in performing the intended functionality can be quantified using the traditional static measures like reliability, resilience and vulnerability, or dynamic resilience. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment of a multi-parameter dynamic resilience is introduced. The multi-parameter dynamic resilience envelops the hydropower and flood-protection resilience, as two opposing demands in the reservoir operation regime. A case study of a Pirot reservoir, in the Republic of Serbia, is used. To estimate the multi -parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system, a hydrological model, and a system dynamic simulation model with an inner control loop, is developed. The inner control loop provides the relation between the hydropower generation and flood-protection. The hydrological model is calibrated and generated climate inputs are used to simulate the long-term flow sequences. The most severe flood event period is extracted to be used as the input for the system dynamics simulations. The system performance for five different scenarios with various multi failure events (e.g., generator failure, segment gate failure on the spillway, leakage from reservoir and water supply tunnel failure due to earthquake) are presented using the novel concept of the explicit modeling of the component failures through element functionality indicators. Based on the outputs from the system dynamics model, system performance is determined and, later, hydropower and flood protection resilience. Then, multi-parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system is estimated and compared with the traditional static measures (reliability). Discrepancy between the drop between multi-parameter resilience (from 0.851 to 0.935) and reliability (from 0.993 to 1) shows that static measure underestimates the risk to the water system. Thus, the results from this research show that multi-parameter dynamic resilience, as an indicator, can provide additional insight compared to the traditional static measures, leading to identification of the vulnerable elements of a complex reservoir system. Additionally, it is shown that the proposed explicit modeling of system components failure can be used to reflect the drop of the overall system functionality.",
publisher = "MDPI",
journal = "Water MDPI",
title = "Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System",
volume = "13(22)",
doi = "10.3390/w13223157"
}
Ignjatović, L., Stojković, M., Ivetić, D., Milašinović, M.,& Milivojević, N.. (2021). Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System. in Water MDPI
MDPI., 13(22).
https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223157
Ignjatović L, Stojković M, Ivetić D, Milašinović M, Milivojević N. Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System. in Water MDPI. 2021;13(22).
doi:10.3390/w13223157 .
Ignjatović, Lazar, Stojković, Milan, Ivetić, Damjan, Milašinović, Miloš, Milivojević, Nikola, "Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System" in Water MDPI, 13(22) (2021),
https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223157 . .
11

Control theory-based data assimilation for hydraulic models as a decision support tool for hydropower systems: sequential, multi-metric tuning of the controllers

Milašinović, Miloš; Prodanović, Dušan; Zindović, Budo; Stojanović, Boban; Milivojević, Nikola

(IWA Publishing, 2021)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Prodanović, Dušan
AU  - Zindović, Budo
AU  - Stojanović, Boban
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2021
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2363
AB  - Increasing renewable energy usage puts extra pressure on decision-making in river hydropower systems. Decision support tools are used for near-future forecasting of the water available. Model-driven forecasting used for river state estimation often provides bad results due to numerous uncertainties. False inflows and poor initialization are some of the uncertainty sources. To overcome this, standard data assimilation (DA) techniques (e.g., ensemble Kalman filter) are used, which are not always applicable in real systems. This paper presents further insight into the novel, tailor-made model update algorithm based on control theory. According to water-level measurements over the system, the model is controlled and continuously updated using proportional–integrative–derivative (PID) controller(s). Implementation of the PID controllers requires the controllers’ parameters estimation (tuning). This research deals with this task by presenting sequential, multi-metric procedure, applicable for controllers’ initial tuning. The proposed tuning method is tested on the Iron Gate hydropower system in Serbia, showing satisfying results.
PB  - IWA Publishing
T2  - Journal of Hydroinformatics
T1  - Control theory-based data assimilation for hydraulic models as a decision support tool for hydropower systems: sequential, multi-metric tuning of the controllers
IS  - 3
VL  - 23
DO  - 10.2166/hydro.2021.078
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Milašinović, Miloš and Prodanović, Dušan and Zindović, Budo and Stojanović, Boban and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2021",
abstract = "Increasing renewable energy usage puts extra pressure on decision-making in river hydropower systems. Decision support tools are used for near-future forecasting of the water available. Model-driven forecasting used for river state estimation often provides bad results due to numerous uncertainties. False inflows and poor initialization are some of the uncertainty sources. To overcome this, standard data assimilation (DA) techniques (e.g., ensemble Kalman filter) are used, which are not always applicable in real systems. This paper presents further insight into the novel, tailor-made model update algorithm based on control theory. According to water-level measurements over the system, the model is controlled and continuously updated using proportional–integrative–derivative (PID) controller(s). Implementation of the PID controllers requires the controllers’ parameters estimation (tuning). This research deals with this task by presenting sequential, multi-metric procedure, applicable for controllers’ initial tuning. The proposed tuning method is tested on the Iron Gate hydropower system in Serbia, showing satisfying results.",
publisher = "IWA Publishing",
journal = "Journal of Hydroinformatics",
title = "Control theory-based data assimilation for hydraulic models as a decision support tool for hydropower systems: sequential, multi-metric tuning of the controllers",
number = "3",
volume = "23",
doi = "10.2166/hydro.2021.078"
}
Milašinović, M., Prodanović, D., Zindović, B., Stojanović, B.,& Milivojević, N.. (2021). Control theory-based data assimilation for hydraulic models as a decision support tool for hydropower systems: sequential, multi-metric tuning of the controllers. in Journal of Hydroinformatics
IWA Publishing., 23(3).
https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2021.078
Milašinović M, Prodanović D, Zindović B, Stojanović B, Milivojević N. Control theory-based data assimilation for hydraulic models as a decision support tool for hydropower systems: sequential, multi-metric tuning of the controllers. in Journal of Hydroinformatics. 2021;23(3).
doi:10.2166/hydro.2021.078 .
Milašinović, Miloš, Prodanović, Dušan, Zindović, Budo, Stojanović, Boban, Milivojević, Nikola, "Control theory-based data assimilation for hydraulic models as a decision support tool for hydropower systems: sequential, multi-metric tuning of the controllers" in Journal of Hydroinformatics, 23, no. 3 (2021),
https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2021.078 . .
3

Metoda za odredjivanje protoka na ulazu u turbine HE "Djerdap 2"

Prodanović, Dušan; Milivojević, Nikola; Ivetić, Damjan; Vojt, Predrag

(Srpsko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje i Akademija inženjerskih nauka Srbije, 2021)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Prodanović, Dušan
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
AU  - Ivetić, Damjan
AU  - Vojt, Predrag
PY  - 2021
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2498
AB  - Protok vode kroz turbinu je jedna od najznačajnijih veličina u postupku upravljanja radom agregata, ali je istovremeno i veličina koju je najteže pouzdano izmeriti. Merna nesigurnost je obično veća nego kod merenja ostalih osnovnih veličina, pritiska i dubine vode, otvorenosti sprovodnog kola turbine ili električnih parametara. U okviru analize uticaja kosog dostrujavanje i plana revitalizacije cevnih agregata na HE Đerdap 2, a sa ciljem bolje procene hidrauličke efikasnosti turbina, projektovan je i primenjen inovativni sistem za posredno merenje protoka. Merni sistem se koristi za određivanje protoka primenom metode Brzina – Proticajni presek i postavlja se na ulazu u turbinu, uzvodno od grube rešetke. Okosnicu sistema čini 15 elektromagnetnih (EM) senzora za merenje sve tri komponente brzina, horizontalno postavljenih na čelični ram koji se proteže celom širinom proticajnog preseka. Ram se podiže po celoj visini proticajnog preseka kako bi se uz pomoć EM senzora i dva redudantna akustična Dopler senzora, mapiralo celokupno polje brzina. Položaj rama se prati pomoću dva enkodera, dok se dva senzora pritiska koriste za merenje dubine vode. Merenja su sinhronizovana sa lokalnim SCADA sistemom, tako da se u post procesiranju, u konačnom obračunu protoka, koriste i odgovarajući podaci o radu turbine. Merni sistem je korišćen u dva režima rada: inkrementalnom, sporijem ali veće tačnosti i u kontinualnom režimu. Imajući u vidu specifičnosti ova dva režima snimanja polja brzina, samog mernog sistema sa novorazvijenim EM senzorima, kao i hidrauličkih uslova, razvijena je adekvatna procedura za procenu nesigurnosti izmerenog protoka. U ovom radu je prikazana merna metoda i data su neka zapažanja sa obavljenih merenja na agregatima HE „Đerdap 2“.
PB  - Srpsko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje i Akademija inženjerskih nauka Srbije
T2  - Vodoprivreda
T1  - Metoda za odredjivanje protoka na ulazu u turbine HE "Djerdap 2"
EP  - 24
IS  - 309-310
SP  - 11
VL  - 53
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2498
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Prodanović, Dušan and Milivojević, Nikola and Ivetić, Damjan and Vojt, Predrag",
year = "2021",
abstract = "Protok vode kroz turbinu je jedna od najznačajnijih veličina u postupku upravljanja radom agregata, ali je istovremeno i veličina koju je najteže pouzdano izmeriti. Merna nesigurnost je obično veća nego kod merenja ostalih osnovnih veličina, pritiska i dubine vode, otvorenosti sprovodnog kola turbine ili električnih parametara. U okviru analize uticaja kosog dostrujavanje i plana revitalizacije cevnih agregata na HE Đerdap 2, a sa ciljem bolje procene hidrauličke efikasnosti turbina, projektovan je i primenjen inovativni sistem za posredno merenje protoka. Merni sistem se koristi za određivanje protoka primenom metode Brzina – Proticajni presek i postavlja se na ulazu u turbinu, uzvodno od grube rešetke. Okosnicu sistema čini 15 elektromagnetnih (EM) senzora za merenje sve tri komponente brzina, horizontalno postavljenih na čelični ram koji se proteže celom širinom proticajnog preseka. Ram se podiže po celoj visini proticajnog preseka kako bi se uz pomoć EM senzora i dva redudantna akustična Dopler senzora, mapiralo celokupno polje brzina. Položaj rama se prati pomoću dva enkodera, dok se dva senzora pritiska koriste za merenje dubine vode. Merenja su sinhronizovana sa lokalnim SCADA sistemom, tako da se u post procesiranju, u konačnom obračunu protoka, koriste i odgovarajući podaci o radu turbine. Merni sistem je korišćen u dva režima rada: inkrementalnom, sporijem ali veće tačnosti i u kontinualnom režimu. Imajući u vidu specifičnosti ova dva režima snimanja polja brzina, samog mernog sistema sa novorazvijenim EM senzorima, kao i hidrauličkih uslova, razvijena je adekvatna procedura za procenu nesigurnosti izmerenog protoka. U ovom radu je prikazana merna metoda i data su neka zapažanja sa obavljenih merenja na agregatima HE „Đerdap 2“.",
publisher = "Srpsko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje i Akademija inženjerskih nauka Srbije",
journal = "Vodoprivreda",
title = "Metoda za odredjivanje protoka na ulazu u turbine HE "Djerdap 2"",
pages = "24-11",
number = "309-310",
volume = "53",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2498"
}
Prodanović, D., Milivojević, N., Ivetić, D.,& Vojt, P.. (2021). Metoda za odredjivanje protoka na ulazu u turbine HE "Djerdap 2". in Vodoprivreda
Srpsko društvo za odvodnjavanje i navodnjavanje i Akademija inženjerskih nauka Srbije., 53(309-310), 11-24.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2498
Prodanović D, Milivojević N, Ivetić D, Vojt P. Metoda za odredjivanje protoka na ulazu u turbine HE "Djerdap 2". in Vodoprivreda. 2021;53(309-310):11-24.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2498 .
Prodanović, Dušan, Milivojević, Nikola, Ivetić, Damjan, Vojt, Predrag, "Metoda za odredjivanje protoka na ulazu u turbine HE "Djerdap 2"" in Vodoprivreda, 53, no. 309-310 (2021):11-24,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_2498 .

Control theory-based update of water levels in 1D hydrodynamic models

Milašinović, Miloš; Prodanović, Dušan; Zindović, Budo; Rosić, Nikola; Milivojević, Nikola

(CRC Press/Balkema, 2020)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Prodanović, Dušan
AU  - Zindović, Budo
AU  - Rosić, Nikola
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2020
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2092
AB  - Model-driven forecasting used for flood risk assessment or river hydropower
systems management, can produce bad results due to many model uncertainties. False inflow
and lateral inflow data and/or poor estimation of initial conditions are some of the uncertainty
sources. To improve model-driven forecasting, data assimilation methods are used for updating
model (e.g., water levels) according to measurements. Widespread data assimilation
methods (EnKF, Particle Filter) often increase computational time, which creates difficulties
in everyday application of these methods in hydraulic modelling. This paper presents novel
approach based on indirect model update adding correction flows at observation locations.
This novel, tailor-made, assimilation approach uses proportional-integrative-derivative controller’s
theory as algorithm for correction flow calculation. Using indirect approach for
model update has justification in models where multiple inflows, including lateral inflows, are
bad estimated or even neglected. This novel approach is tested on 170km long section of
Danube model in Serbia, showing good performance.
PB  - CRC Press/Balkema
C3  - River Flow 2020
T1  - Control theory-based update of water levels in 1D hydrodynamic models
DO  - 10.1201/b22619
ER  - 
@conference{
author = "Milašinović, Miloš and Prodanović, Dušan and Zindović, Budo and Rosić, Nikola and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2020",
abstract = "Model-driven forecasting used for flood risk assessment or river hydropower
systems management, can produce bad results due to many model uncertainties. False inflow
and lateral inflow data and/or poor estimation of initial conditions are some of the uncertainty
sources. To improve model-driven forecasting, data assimilation methods are used for updating
model (e.g., water levels) according to measurements. Widespread data assimilation
methods (EnKF, Particle Filter) often increase computational time, which creates difficulties
in everyday application of these methods in hydraulic modelling. This paper presents novel
approach based on indirect model update adding correction flows at observation locations.
This novel, tailor-made, assimilation approach uses proportional-integrative-derivative controller’s
theory as algorithm for correction flow calculation. Using indirect approach for
model update has justification in models where multiple inflows, including lateral inflows, are
bad estimated or even neglected. This novel approach is tested on 170km long section of
Danube model in Serbia, showing good performance.",
publisher = "CRC Press/Balkema",
journal = "River Flow 2020",
title = "Control theory-based update of water levels in 1D hydrodynamic models",
doi = "10.1201/b22619"
}
Milašinović, M., Prodanović, D., Zindović, B., Rosić, N.,& Milivojević, N.. (2020). Control theory-based update of water levels in 1D hydrodynamic models. in River Flow 2020
CRC Press/Balkema..
https://doi.org/10.1201/b22619
Milašinović M, Prodanović D, Zindović B, Rosić N, Milivojević N. Control theory-based update of water levels in 1D hydrodynamic models. in River Flow 2020. 2020;.
doi:10.1201/b22619 .
Milašinović, Miloš, Prodanović, Dušan, Zindović, Budo, Rosić, Nikola, Milivojević, Nikola, "Control theory-based update of water levels in 1D hydrodynamic models" in River Flow 2020 (2020),
https://doi.org/10.1201/b22619 . .
14
21

Fast data assimilation for open channel hydrodynamic models using control theory approach

Milašinović, Miloš; Prodanović, Dušan; Zindovic, Budo; Rosić, Nikola; Milivojević, Nikola

(Elsevier, 2020)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Milašinović, Miloš
AU  - Prodanović, Dušan
AU  - Zindovic, Budo
AU  - Rosić, Nikola
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2020
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1845
AB  - Model-driven forecasting, used for flood risks or big hydropower systems management, can produce results of unsatisfying accuracy even with best-calibrated hydrodynamic models. One of the biggest uncertainty sources is the inflow data, either produced by different hydrological models or obtained using unreliable rating curves. To keep the model in the up-to-date state, data assimilation techniques are used. The aim of the assimilation is to reduce the difference between simulated and observed state of selected variables by updating hydrodynamic model state variables according to observed water levels. The widely used data assimilation method applicable for nonlinear hydrodynamic models is Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). However, this method can often increase the computational time due to complexity of mathematical apparatus, making it less applicable in everyday operations. This paper presents the novel, fast, tailor-made data assimilation method, suitable for 1D open channel hydraulic models, based on control theory. Using Proportional-Integrative-Derivative (PID) controllers, the difference between measured levels and simulated levels obtained by hydrodynamic model is reduced by adding or subtracting the flows in the junctions/sections where water levels are measured. The novel PID control-based data assimilation (PID-DA) is compared to EnKF. Benchmarking shows that PID-DA can be used for data assimilation, even coupled with simplified 1D hydraulic model, without significant sacrifice of stability and accuracy, and with reduction of computational time up to 63 times.
PB  - Elsevier
T2  - Journal of Hydrology
T1  - Fast data assimilation for open channel hydrodynamic models using control theory approach
VL  - 584
DO  - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124661
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Milašinović, Miloš and Prodanović, Dušan and Zindovic, Budo and Rosić, Nikola and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2020",
abstract = "Model-driven forecasting, used for flood risks or big hydropower systems management, can produce results of unsatisfying accuracy even with best-calibrated hydrodynamic models. One of the biggest uncertainty sources is the inflow data, either produced by different hydrological models or obtained using unreliable rating curves. To keep the model in the up-to-date state, data assimilation techniques are used. The aim of the assimilation is to reduce the difference between simulated and observed state of selected variables by updating hydrodynamic model state variables according to observed water levels. The widely used data assimilation method applicable for nonlinear hydrodynamic models is Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). However, this method can often increase the computational time due to complexity of mathematical apparatus, making it less applicable in everyday operations. This paper presents the novel, fast, tailor-made data assimilation method, suitable for 1D open channel hydraulic models, based on control theory. Using Proportional-Integrative-Derivative (PID) controllers, the difference between measured levels and simulated levels obtained by hydrodynamic model is reduced by adding or subtracting the flows in the junctions/sections where water levels are measured. The novel PID control-based data assimilation (PID-DA) is compared to EnKF. Benchmarking shows that PID-DA can be used for data assimilation, even coupled with simplified 1D hydraulic model, without significant sacrifice of stability and accuracy, and with reduction of computational time up to 63 times.",
publisher = "Elsevier",
journal = "Journal of Hydrology",
title = "Fast data assimilation for open channel hydrodynamic models using control theory approach",
volume = "584",
doi = "10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124661"
}
Milašinović, M., Prodanović, D., Zindovic, B., Rosić, N.,& Milivojević, N.. (2020). Fast data assimilation for open channel hydrodynamic models using control theory approach. in Journal of Hydrology
Elsevier., 584.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124661
Milašinović M, Prodanović D, Zindovic B, Rosić N, Milivojević N. Fast data assimilation for open channel hydrodynamic models using control theory approach. in Journal of Hydrology. 2020;584.
doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124661 .
Milašinović, Miloš, Prodanović, Dušan, Zindovic, Budo, Rosić, Nikola, Milivojević, Nikola, "Fast data assimilation for open channel hydrodynamic models using control theory approach" in Journal of Hydrology, 584 (2020),
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124661 . .
1
10
1
10

Development of new models for the estimation of deformation moduli in rock masses based on in situ measurements

Radovanović, Slobodan; Ranković, Vesna; Anđelković, Vladimir; Divac, Dejan; Milivojević, Nikola

(Springer Verlag, 2018)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Radovanović, Slobodan
AU  - Ranković, Vesna
AU  - Anđelković, Vladimir
AU  - Divac, Dejan
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2018
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/942
AB  - Knowledge of the deformation properties of the rock mass is essential for the stress-strain analysis of structures such as dams, tunnels, slopes, and other underground structures and the most important parameter of the deformability of the rock mass is the deformation modulus. This paper describes statistical models based on multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks. The models are developed using the test results of the deformation modulus obtained during the construction of the Iron Gate 1 dam on the Danube River and correlate these with measurements of the velocities of longitudinal waves and pressures in the rock mass. The parameters used for defining the models were obtained by in situ testing during dam construction, meaning that scale effects were also taken into account. For the analysis, 47 experimental results from in situ testing of the rock mass were obtained; 38 of these were used for modelling and nine were used for testing of the models. The model based on the artificial neural networks showed better performance in comparison to the model based on multiple linear regression.
PB  - Springer Verlag
T2  - Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment
T1  - Development of new models for the estimation of deformation moduli in rock masses based on in situ measurements
EP  - 1202
IS  - 3
SP  - 1191
VL  - 77
DO  - 10.1007/s10064-017-1027-2
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Radovanović, Slobodan and Ranković, Vesna and Anđelković, Vladimir and Divac, Dejan and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2018",
abstract = "Knowledge of the deformation properties of the rock mass is essential for the stress-strain analysis of structures such as dams, tunnels, slopes, and other underground structures and the most important parameter of the deformability of the rock mass is the deformation modulus. This paper describes statistical models based on multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks. The models are developed using the test results of the deformation modulus obtained during the construction of the Iron Gate 1 dam on the Danube River and correlate these with measurements of the velocities of longitudinal waves and pressures in the rock mass. The parameters used for defining the models were obtained by in situ testing during dam construction, meaning that scale effects were also taken into account. For the analysis, 47 experimental results from in situ testing of the rock mass were obtained; 38 of these were used for modelling and nine were used for testing of the models. The model based on the artificial neural networks showed better performance in comparison to the model based on multiple linear regression.",
publisher = "Springer Verlag",
journal = "Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment",
title = "Development of new models for the estimation of deformation moduli in rock masses based on in situ measurements",
pages = "1202-1191",
number = "3",
volume = "77",
doi = "10.1007/s10064-017-1027-2"
}
Radovanović, S., Ranković, V., Anđelković, V., Divac, D.,& Milivojević, N.. (2018). Development of new models for the estimation of deformation moduli in rock masses based on in situ measurements. in Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment
Springer Verlag., 77(3), 1191-1202.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-017-1027-2
Radovanović S, Ranković V, Anđelković V, Divac D, Milivojević N. Development of new models for the estimation of deformation moduli in rock masses based on in situ measurements. in Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment. 2018;77(3):1191-1202.
doi:10.1007/s10064-017-1027-2 .
Radovanović, Slobodan, Ranković, Vesna, Anđelković, Vladimir, Divac, Dejan, Milivojević, Nikola, "Development of new models for the estimation of deformation moduli in rock masses based on in situ measurements" in Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 77, no. 3 (2018):1191-1202,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-017-1027-2 . .
5
2
5

Prediction of concrete dam deformation using artificial neural networks

Radovanović, Slobodan; Milivojević, Vladimir; Cirović, V.; Divac, Dejan; Milivojević, Nikola

(Civil-Comp Press, 2015)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Radovanović, Slobodan
AU  - Milivojević, Vladimir
AU  - Cirović, V.
AU  - Divac, Dejan
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
PY  - 2015
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/668
AB  - The goal of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of using artificial neural networks in the prediction of concrete dam deformation. The aging of dams as a concrete structures poses a significant risk for the environment, and many of them are at the stage where it is necessary to pay attention to their behaviour. Short-term term prediction of deformation is very important for rapid response in the case of any adverse events. Two examples are presented in this paper to investigate how short-term prediction of deformation can be realized by using artificial neural networks. As a comparison, a set of statistical linear regression models are established using the same data. The conclusions on the basis of the analysis and the established models are presented. The paper provides an assessment of the network structure and a comparison of neural network models for the usual concept of statistical models for the monitoring of dams.
PB  - Civil-Comp Press
C3  - Civil-Comp Proceedings
T1  - Prediction of concrete dam deformation using artificial neural networks
VL  - 109
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_668
ER  - 
@conference{
author = "Radovanović, Slobodan and Milivojević, Vladimir and Cirović, V. and Divac, Dejan and Milivojević, Nikola",
year = "2015",
abstract = "The goal of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of using artificial neural networks in the prediction of concrete dam deformation. The aging of dams as a concrete structures poses a significant risk for the environment, and many of them are at the stage where it is necessary to pay attention to their behaviour. Short-term term prediction of deformation is very important for rapid response in the case of any adverse events. Two examples are presented in this paper to investigate how short-term prediction of deformation can be realized by using artificial neural networks. As a comparison, a set of statistical linear regression models are established using the same data. The conclusions on the basis of the analysis and the established models are presented. The paper provides an assessment of the network structure and a comparison of neural network models for the usual concept of statistical models for the monitoring of dams.",
publisher = "Civil-Comp Press",
journal = "Civil-Comp Proceedings",
title = "Prediction of concrete dam deformation using artificial neural networks",
volume = "109",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_668"
}
Radovanović, S., Milivojević, V., Cirović, V., Divac, D.,& Milivojević, N.. (2015). Prediction of concrete dam deformation using artificial neural networks. in Civil-Comp Proceedings
Civil-Comp Press., 109.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_668
Radovanović S, Milivojević V, Cirović V, Divac D, Milivojević N. Prediction of concrete dam deformation using artificial neural networks. in Civil-Comp Proceedings. 2015;109.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_668 .
Radovanović, Slobodan, Milivojević, Vladimir, Cirović, V., Divac, Dejan, Milivojević, Nikola, "Prediction of concrete dam deformation using artificial neural networks" in Civil-Comp Proceedings, 109 (2015),
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_668 .

Identifikacija parametara modifikovanog Cam-Clay materijalnog modela primenom MKE,

Radovanović, Slobodan; Rakić, Dragan; Milivojević, NIkola; Milivojević, Vladimir

(Građevinski fakultet, Univerzitet Crne Gore, Podgorica, 2014)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Radovanović, Slobodan
AU  - Rakić, Dragan
AU  - Milivojević, NIkola
AU  - Milivojević, Vladimir
PY  - 2014
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1128
PB  - Građevinski fakultet, Univerzitet Crne Gore, Podgorica
C3  - Zbornik radova / Peti Internacionalni naučno-stručni skup Građevinarstvo nauka i praksa
T1  - Identifikacija parametara modifikovanog Cam-Clay materijalnog modela primenom MKE,
EP  - 1894
SP  - 1887
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_1128
ER  - 
@conference{
author = "Radovanović, Slobodan and Rakić, Dragan and Milivojević, NIkola and Milivojević, Vladimir",
year = "2014",
publisher = "Građevinski fakultet, Univerzitet Crne Gore, Podgorica",
journal = "Zbornik radova / Peti Internacionalni naučno-stručni skup Građevinarstvo nauka i praksa",
title = "Identifikacija parametara modifikovanog Cam-Clay materijalnog modela primenom MKE,",
pages = "1894-1887",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_1128"
}
Radovanović, S., Rakić, D., Milivojević, N.,& Milivojević, V.. (2014). Identifikacija parametara modifikovanog Cam-Clay materijalnog modela primenom MKE,. in Zbornik radova / Peti Internacionalni naučno-stručni skup Građevinarstvo nauka i praksa
Građevinski fakultet, Univerzitet Crne Gore, Podgorica., 1887-1894.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_1128
Radovanović S, Rakić D, Milivojević N, Milivojević V. Identifikacija parametara modifikovanog Cam-Clay materijalnog modela primenom MKE,. in Zbornik radova / Peti Internacionalni naučno-stručni skup Građevinarstvo nauka i praksa. 2014;:1887-1894.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_1128 .
Radovanović, Slobodan, Rakić, Dragan, Milivojević, NIkola, Milivojević, Vladimir, "Identifikacija parametara modifikovanog Cam-Clay materijalnog modela primenom MKE," in Zbornik radova / Peti Internacionalni naučno-stručni skup Građevinarstvo nauka i praksa (2014):1887-1894,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_1128 .

Modified rainfall-runoff model for bifurcations caused by channels embedded in catchments

Prodanović, Dušan; Stanić, Miloš; Milivojević, Nikola; Simić, Zoran; Stojanović, Boban

(Univerzitet u Kragujevcu - Fakultet inženjerskih nauka, Kragujevac, 2009)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Prodanović, Dušan
AU  - Stanić, Miloš
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
AU  - Simić, Zoran
AU  - Stojanović, Boban
PY  - 2009
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/257
AB  - The particularity of 'Vlasina' hydropower plants catchment is a big number of gravitation channels used to collect the water from neighboring natural catchments. The overall catchment size is thus increased, compared to the natural catchment. At the bifurcations where the gravitation channels with mild slope are intersecting the steep natural hydrographic network, the natural surface and subsurface water flows are significantly altered. The channel which intersects the river flow will hold the water at higher elevations, filling the storages or transferring the water to another catchment. Under such conditions, the concept of rainfall to runoff transformation in SWAT-based model had to be modified in a way that the channel does not capture all the water from the natural watercourse, but will allow a certain volume of water to run downstream, both for the surface and subsurface flow. New SWAT-related objects were introduced: HPN (hydro-profile on the natural watercourse), HPC (hydro-profile on the channel), HPI (hydro-profile on the channel, the intake) and HPS (storage hydro-profile). For each object the water balance and transformation equations were derived, adapting SWAT model to simulate the flow in the bifurcating network of natural streams and channels. The new model was calibrated on the catchment area of the 'Vlasina' hydropower plants system. This paper presents the adaptations of the SWAT-based model and results of its application on the northern part of the system (catchments of the channels 'Strvna' and 'Čemernik').
PB  - Univerzitet u Kragujevcu - Fakultet inženjerskih nauka, Kragujevac
T2  - Journal of Serbian Society for Computational Mechanics
T1  - Modified rainfall-runoff model for bifurcations caused by channels embedded in catchments
EP  - 126
IS  - 1
SP  - 111
VL  - 3
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_257
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Prodanović, Dušan and Stanić, Miloš and Milivojević, Nikola and Simić, Zoran and Stojanović, Boban",
year = "2009",
abstract = "The particularity of 'Vlasina' hydropower plants catchment is a big number of gravitation channels used to collect the water from neighboring natural catchments. The overall catchment size is thus increased, compared to the natural catchment. At the bifurcations where the gravitation channels with mild slope are intersecting the steep natural hydrographic network, the natural surface and subsurface water flows are significantly altered. The channel which intersects the river flow will hold the water at higher elevations, filling the storages or transferring the water to another catchment. Under such conditions, the concept of rainfall to runoff transformation in SWAT-based model had to be modified in a way that the channel does not capture all the water from the natural watercourse, but will allow a certain volume of water to run downstream, both for the surface and subsurface flow. New SWAT-related objects were introduced: HPN (hydro-profile on the natural watercourse), HPC (hydro-profile on the channel), HPI (hydro-profile on the channel, the intake) and HPS (storage hydro-profile). For each object the water balance and transformation equations were derived, adapting SWAT model to simulate the flow in the bifurcating network of natural streams and channels. The new model was calibrated on the catchment area of the 'Vlasina' hydropower plants system. This paper presents the adaptations of the SWAT-based model and results of its application on the northern part of the system (catchments of the channels 'Strvna' and 'Čemernik').",
publisher = "Univerzitet u Kragujevcu - Fakultet inženjerskih nauka, Kragujevac",
journal = "Journal of Serbian Society for Computational Mechanics",
title = "Modified rainfall-runoff model for bifurcations caused by channels embedded in catchments",
pages = "126-111",
number = "1",
volume = "3",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_257"
}
Prodanović, D., Stanić, M., Milivojević, N., Simić, Z.,& Stojanović, B.. (2009). Modified rainfall-runoff model for bifurcations caused by channels embedded in catchments. in Journal of Serbian Society for Computational Mechanics
Univerzitet u Kragujevcu - Fakultet inženjerskih nauka, Kragujevac., 3(1), 111-126.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_257
Prodanović D, Stanić M, Milivojević N, Simić Z, Stojanović B. Modified rainfall-runoff model for bifurcations caused by channels embedded in catchments. in Journal of Serbian Society for Computational Mechanics. 2009;3(1):111-126.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_257 .
Prodanović, Dušan, Stanić, Miloš, Milivojević, Nikola, Simić, Zoran, Stojanović, Boban, "Modified rainfall-runoff model for bifurcations caused by channels embedded in catchments" in Journal of Serbian Society for Computational Mechanics, 3, no. 1 (2009):111-126,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_257 .

SWAT-based runoff modeling in complex catchment areas: Theoretical background and numerical procedures

Simić, Zoran; Milivojević, Nikola; Prodanović, Dušan; Milivojević, Vladimir; Perović, N.

(Univerzitet u Kragujevcu - Fakultet inženjerskih nauka, Kragujevac, 2009)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Simić, Zoran
AU  - Milivojević, Nikola
AU  - Prodanović, Dušan
AU  - Milivojević, Vladimir
AU  - Perović, N.
PY  - 2009
UR  - https://grafar.grf.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/259
AB  - This paper shows the structure of the SWAT-based model used in modeling of the 'rainfallrunoff' process. The SWAT model is hydro-dynamic and physically-based model for application in complex and large basins. Model inputs are as follows: rainfall, air temperature, soil characteristics, topography, vegetation, hydrogeology and other relevant physical parameters. The model is based on five linear reservoirs as follows: reservoir of the vegetation cover, snow accumulation and melting, surface reservoir, underground reservoir and surface runoff reservoir. The model uses GIS tools for preprocessing and post-processing. The basic modeling unit is the hydrologic response unit (HRU), defined as the network of elementary hydrologic areas with the selected discretization, measure of which is dependent upon the desired accuracy, as well as upon data accuracy. The total runoff on the exit profile of the catchment is computed by convolution of the sum of runoffs (surface and base runoffs). The model can be applied at the daily and hourly level of discretization and used for multiannual simulations. Illustration of operation of the SWAT based model will be presented on a selected part of the River Drina basin (with the total area of around 20.000 km2). .
PB  - Univerzitet u Kragujevcu - Fakultet inženjerskih nauka, Kragujevac
T2  - Journal of Serbian Society for Computational Mechanics
T1  - SWAT-based runoff modeling in complex catchment areas: Theoretical background and numerical procedures
EP  - 63
IS  - 1
SP  - 38
VL  - 3
UR  - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_259
ER  - 
@article{
author = "Simić, Zoran and Milivojević, Nikola and Prodanović, Dušan and Milivojević, Vladimir and Perović, N.",
year = "2009",
abstract = "This paper shows the structure of the SWAT-based model used in modeling of the 'rainfallrunoff' process. The SWAT model is hydro-dynamic and physically-based model for application in complex and large basins. Model inputs are as follows: rainfall, air temperature, soil characteristics, topography, vegetation, hydrogeology and other relevant physical parameters. The model is based on five linear reservoirs as follows: reservoir of the vegetation cover, snow accumulation and melting, surface reservoir, underground reservoir and surface runoff reservoir. The model uses GIS tools for preprocessing and post-processing. The basic modeling unit is the hydrologic response unit (HRU), defined as the network of elementary hydrologic areas with the selected discretization, measure of which is dependent upon the desired accuracy, as well as upon data accuracy. The total runoff on the exit profile of the catchment is computed by convolution of the sum of runoffs (surface and base runoffs). The model can be applied at the daily and hourly level of discretization and used for multiannual simulations. Illustration of operation of the SWAT based model will be presented on a selected part of the River Drina basin (with the total area of around 20.000 km2). .",
publisher = "Univerzitet u Kragujevcu - Fakultet inženjerskih nauka, Kragujevac",
journal = "Journal of Serbian Society for Computational Mechanics",
title = "SWAT-based runoff modeling in complex catchment areas: Theoretical background and numerical procedures",
pages = "63-38",
number = "1",
volume = "3",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_259"
}
Simić, Z., Milivojević, N., Prodanović, D., Milivojević, V.,& Perović, N.. (2009). SWAT-based runoff modeling in complex catchment areas: Theoretical background and numerical procedures. in Journal of Serbian Society for Computational Mechanics
Univerzitet u Kragujevcu - Fakultet inženjerskih nauka, Kragujevac., 3(1), 38-63.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_259
Simić Z, Milivojević N, Prodanović D, Milivojević V, Perović N. SWAT-based runoff modeling in complex catchment areas: Theoretical background and numerical procedures. in Journal of Serbian Society for Computational Mechanics. 2009;3(1):38-63.
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_259 .
Simić, Zoran, Milivojević, Nikola, Prodanović, Dušan, Milivojević, Vladimir, Perović, N., "SWAT-based runoff modeling in complex catchment areas: Theoretical background and numerical procedures" in Journal of Serbian Society for Computational Mechanics, 3, no. 1 (2009):38-63,
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_grafar_259 .